Week 7 proved to be as tough as I thought it might be, with huge, uninviting lines lying there like a gauntlet within a minefield. Not sure why those big lines throw me off my game, but they do. Things get back to a more normal-looking board in Week 8. Here are the delicious morsels I have to present to you.
Last Week: 2-4
Season Record: 19-13-1
Spreads are provided by FanDuel.
Miami Dolphins (1-6) at Buffalo Bills (4-2)
Line: Buffalo -13.5
After the Bills lost their first game of the season at home to the Pittsburgh Steelers, they showed that loss was a fluke by taking care of business and winning four in a row, but their loss to the Tennessee Titans was no fluke. They got beat fair and square. Now playing a pretty lousy Dolphins squad, the Bills should really be focused and defend the home turf with a businesslike win. That sounds better than 13.5 points.
The Pick: BUFFALO 34, Miami 13
Carolina Panthers (3-4) at Atlanta Falcons (3-3)
Line: Atlanta -3
Clearly, the Panthers’ squad of the first three weeks of the season has kind of shriveled up and died. It all started with the loss of super running back Christian McCaffrey and has now seemed to morph into quarterback Sam Darnold again moving into the suspect category. While there won’t be a Deshaun Watson trade, Panthers head coach Matt Rhule is clearly sort of shocked after Darnold’s three-point effort against the then 1-5 New York Giants.
While Atlanta is not a great team or even a good team, that stinker by Carolina last week makes this spread feel very coverable by Matt Ryan and his improving offensive cast.
The Pick: ATLANTA 23, Carolina 15
Cincinnati Bengals (5-2) at New York Jets (1-5)
Line: Cincinnati -10.5
Part of my 2-4 stinker last week was my confidence that the Ravens would beat the Bengals by more than six points. Watching that 41-17 shellacking on local TV, I was much more impressed with the Bengals’ energy and execution than super bummed by the Ravens’ low energy and caliber of play.
Part of the process of a bad organization turning the corner is going into statement games and doing what the Bengals did last Sunday in Baltimore. Another part of that process — and it makes an even larger impact on the growth of a team — is going into an easy game and doing what I think the Bengals and Joe Burrow will do against the Jets at MetLife Stadium on Sunday.
Mike White gets the start at quarterback for the Jets in this one, and I’ll bet Joe Flacco comes in early in the third quarter if he’s active. He could be the only player I have to fear (a backdoor cover), but that level of fear isn’t too high.
The Pick: CINCINNATI 36, New York Jets 10
Tennessee Titans (5-2) at Indianapolis Colts (3-4)
Line: Indianapolis -2.5
I guess this line comes from an increasing belief that Carson Wentz is back, as well as a belief that the Titans are due for a big letdown after back-to-back stirring wins at home against the Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs. While I’ll admit I can see what some are thinking they are seeing out of Wentz, I’ll take the 5-2 team getting 2.5 points and bet they’ll outright win the game in a tough tussle.
The Pick: TENNESSEE 25, Indianapolis 20
Los Angeles Rams (5-2) at Houston Texans (1-6)
Line: LA Rams -14.5
The Rams didn’t win as convincingly as I expected last week when they were a 15.5-point favorite at home against a Lions team that plays hard from the opening gun. The Rams go on the road this week, but I am expecting them to roll over the Texans. Matthew Stafford comes into this game with none of the mixed emotions he had to play with against his former team last week. Plus, the Rams’ point differential is +61, while the Texans’ is -106. That’s a formula for what should be a real spanking in Houston.
The Pick: LA RAMS 37, Houston 13
New England (3-4) at Los Angeles Chargers (4-2)
Line: LA Chargers -4
This line has moved from a seemingly-too-high six-point spread in favor of the lightning bolts to a more palatable four-point spread. As much as I like what I am seeing out of Pats rookie quarterback Mac Jones, I’ve got to believe that the Chargers are the better squad. The Bolts’ bye came after that blowout loss to the Ravens in Week 6. The Chargers will be ready to hit the ground running at 1 p.m. local time in Los Angeles and play at a much higher level than two weeks ago. It’ll be a different group than the listless bunch that showed up in Baltimore.
The Pick: LA CHARGERS 27, New England 19
Dallas Cowboys (5-1) at Minnesota Vikings (3-3)
Line: Minnesota -2.5
I love what I have seen out of Dak Prescott and the Cowboys, who have rebounded from a Week 1 loss in Tampa to win five in a row. Prescott (calf) has been limited in practice all week, but I think he’ll play and the Cowboys will use their underdog status as a chip-on-their-shoulders advantage. Not like I don’t have any respect for the Vikings, I just have a lot more respect for the Cowboys — so I’ll continue to back them Cowboys.
The Pick: DALLAS 29, Minnesota 22
Photo Credit: Sabina Moran/PressBox