There are lots of things to look at when betting during the NFL postseason. First off, pay attention to teams that finish the regular season on road trips and have to go on the road in the postseason. It’s incredibly difficult to win multiple games on the road in the NFL, let alone the playoffs. That doesn’t mean it’s impossible, but very difficult and highly unlikely.

Don’t focus on previous matchups. I’ve heard people say, “Well, they blew them out in Week 7, so they should do it again.” Or people go the other way with it by saying, “It’s hard to beat a team three times in one season and I just can’t see it happening in this matchup.” Teams sweep divisional foes all the time in the NFL.

Another thing is not to overvalue what you saw in the first round of the playoffs. Too many gamblers get caught up in recency bias. It’s all about matchups and following the money. Just because a team won in a blowout in its first playoff game doesn’t mean that team is going to go roll over its next opponent.

Lastly, when it comes to the Super Bowl, don’t go prop-bet crazy. The “juice” (a sportsbook’s commission on a losing bet) increases on the prop bets. Instead of the usual -110 you would see on an average prop bet, they are all inflated to -115 to -125 on average. When losing those bets, the juice can add up quickly.

Photo Credit: John Coulson/PressBox

Issue 272 December 2021 / January 2022

Jeremy Conn

Jeremy Conn is the co-host of The Big Bad Morning Show on 105.7 The Fan Monday-Friday from 6-10 a.m. Follow him on Twitter at @JeremyConn1057.