For those paying attention to the staredown between the Yankees and Aaron Judge on the conversation about a long-term contract one year before the slugging outfielder becomes a free agent, there’s something you should know.
This conversation is all about the cantankerous negotiations that went on between Major League Baseball and the Major League Baseball Players Association during the recent lockout that fortunately was aborted before it got to ridiculous proportions. You should not forget that it ended only after MLB reneged on a “final, best offer” that proved false on both accounts.
For those who haven’t been paying attention (and nobody really blames you), Judge is/was the poster boy for the MLPBA’s effort to combat MLB’s ability to control salaries of players in their first three years. As you can imagine, this is a very, very big poster befitting his gigantic stature.
We have previously noted the similarity between the Yankees’ position and the one the Cardinals faced 11 years ago with Albert Pujols, who got a 10-year deal at age 31 with the Angels that proved to be a liability in the final years. As reader Scott Dance pointed out, the Angels used that signing to leverage a huge cable television deal — something the Yankees already possess, so that is a non-factor in these negotiations, which are going to be strictly about length of contract.
But there actually is a much better comparison that highlights the MLBPA’s effort on behalf of younger players – and it comes via an unlikely source. Judge was a compensatory-round draft choice (No. 32 overall) by the Yankees in 2013. Three years earlier, he had been picked in the 31st round by the Athletics but chose to attend Fresno State.
Without knowing what the A’s offered, there’s no way of knowing how much Judge benefitted from the wait — but we do know his signing bonus was $1.8 million, a tad above slot value of $1.667 million.
Here’s what else we know about the 31st round in 2010 — the Rays selected Kevin Kiermaier, a two-time junior college All-American, and gave him a $75,000 bonus, an exorbitant amount for that position in the draft. Kiermaier is two years older than Judge and got to the big leagues two years sooner.
Even with those two advantages it probably shocks to learn that, to date, Kiermaier has made much more money than Judge – $39.3 million to $20.5 million. It may also be equally shocking that he has a career WAR total of 30.7 to Judge’s 26.4, which may be as much an indictment of WAR as it is of MLB’s disjointed salary structure.
The numbers may be hard to figure, but they’re easy to explain. After two years in the minimum salary range, the free-spending Rays (yes, they have gone this route before) rewarded Kiermaier with a six-year, $53 million contract that includes an eight-figure salary this year and an option for 2023.
In comparison, Judge has a Rookie of the Year award, a second- and 12th-place finish in MVP voting, two Silver Slugger awards and a pair of All-Star appearances while making minimum, or slightly above, salaries, all “earned” under the old collective bargaining agreement. Under the CBA agreed to recently, those accomplishments would have earned him considerable additional dollars.
By the baseball calendar, Judge is entering his age-29 season, but he will turn 30 on April 26 and will be eligible for free agency in 2023, his age-30 season (but very close to 31). Chances are he is looking for a Pujols-type deal, or something close while the Yankees, following guidelines influenced but not regulated by the system, are probably talking less than half that many years.
In the meantime, Judge is more likely to surpass Kiermaier in WAR totals than he is in career earnings in 2022. He has said he won’t negotiate beyond Opening Day, leaving the Yankees only a few days to resolve an issue with their most popular player.
The bitterness regarding the inequities of the old CBA and a team’s ability to control salaries for more than three years in some cases figures to have a carryover effect. Stay tuned to this one.
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Under normal circumstances, I wouldn’t be in favor of any rule established for one player, which is the case with the newly adopted designated hitter rule, obviously created for the express benefit of Shohei Ohtani. It will allow the DH to remain in the lineup if he is a pitcher who is otherwise leaving the game.
While designed specifically for one of the game’s biggest attractions, there is another plus that shouldn’t be ignored. It will also encourage teams to allow more athletic players to perform two ways, rather than restrict them to one role or the other, as the Reds did with Hunter Greene, their No. 1 draft choice a few years back.
Anything the game can do to be attractive to the best athletes is a plus, and the new DH rule will serve that purpose.
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Another new rule that should help MLB in the immediate future is the return to the 15-day injured list rather than the 10-day stint that has been constantly abused as teams rotate pitchers in and out of their farm systems. While teams used to complain about expanded rosters for the last month of the season, they proceeded to, in effect, do the same thing throughout the season.
Limiting a player’s options to five per season is another improvement, although that number is still too high.
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Here’s how I know the lockout had a negative impact on news coming out of spring training. Among things I learned was that the newly renamed Cleveland Guardians have the most expensive replica jerseys at a pricey $114.99. FYI, the Orioles come in tied for seventh at $54.99, which is five bucks more than the cheapest, shared by many.
I also learned that the Atlanta Braves are the most tattooed team, and David Price is the player with the most ink. Fascinating stuff that you just can’t make up.
Jim Henneman can be reached at JimH@pressboxonline.com