We’ve made it. The NFL preseason is finally here.
After a long offseason full of trades, astonishing contract signings and a controversial situation involving one NFL quarterback, football is back. The preseason will be over before you know it and this is the time of year the focus is on building your championship-caliber fantasy team.
Recent history tells us that very few starters will take the field this month. Matthew Stafford didn’t see the field once in preseason last year and the Los Angeles Rams won the Super Bowl. Closer to home, the Baltimore Ravens were beside themselves when J.K. Dobbins suffered a season-ending knee injury in a preseason game. Injuries are an unfortunate part of the game, but I believe we are going to see fewer and fewer teams playing starters in these meaningless games.
From a fantasy perspective, that means we won’t get to see who handles the bulk of the touches for some of the crowded backfields. There are several wide receivers in new homes (Davante Adams, Tyreek Hill and Allen Robinson, to name a few). We won’t see if any chemistry has been built with their new quarterbacks. That makes certain situations hard to gauge entering the regular season.
Fantasy football is a game where you try to minimize risk by drafting the best available players. Some are ranked too high, some are ranked too low and others are ready to become household names in fantasy football.
I am going to dive through my favorite sleepers, busts and breakout players for the 2022 season. A sleeper is a player I feel is ranked a couple rounds too low. A bust is someone I think won’t live up to his ADP (average draft position). Breakout players are those who likely aren’t on your radar just yet, but should, and will be once the season starts.
To be clear, a bust doesn’t mean you should not draft a particular player at all. If the value is right, go ahead and make the pick. Same goes for a sleeper. Don’t reach too high when better players are available. Breakout players are guys you can land with your last few picks.
I will compare my rankings to the half-point per reception ADP you can find at FantasyPros. Let’s go position-by-position with sleepers, busts and breakout candidates as we get closer to the Thursday, Sept. 8 opener.
Quarterback Sleeper: Russell Wilson, Denver Broncos
FantasyPros ADP: 87; My Rank: 67
It amazes me how the fantasy community has forgotten how exceptional Wilson has been throughout his career. He clearly wasn’t the same player last season when he injured his finger, but he has finished as a top-six fantasy QB five times since 2014. You can make a case that going from D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett to Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy is comparable, but he also inherits two great passing running backs in Javonte Williams and Melvin Gordon. New Broncos head coach Nathaniel Hackett will finally let Russ cook. Wilson will once again finish in the top six, which is exactly where I have him in my rankings.
Quarterback Bust: Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals
FantasyPros ADP: 60; My Rank: 71
Murray is getting paid as a top-five quarterback and being drafted as one as well. Both are wrong. Sure, he was lights out to start the 2021 season. The same happened in 2019 and 2020. But when it matters most in the back half of the season — and in our case the fantasy playoffs — he’s been a liability at the position. From Week 14 to Week 18 last season, Murray threw for a total of five touchdowns. It was a lot of the same in 2020, when he threw seven touchdowns from Week 12 through Week 16. His strong starts came with DeAndre Hopkins as his primary target, and Hopkins will miss the first six weeks of the season due to a suspension. I’d rather have Wilson than Murray, who for some reason is 27 spots lower in ADP.
Quarterback Breakout: Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars
FantasyPros ADP: 140; My Rank: 117
This is a no-brainer. Lawrence is free from the debacle that was Urban Meyer and is a year removed from a campaign that saw the No. 1 pick throw for more interceptions (17) than touchdowns (12). Remember a guy named Peyton Manning? He threw more interceptions than touchdowns in his rookie season, too. Am I saying Lawrence will follow in the Hall of Famer’s footsteps? No, not yet. But he’s due for a significant progression with Doug Pederson as his head coach and the Jaguars investing in pieces around him. Pederson made Carson Wentz look like an MVP candidate and Nick Foles a Super Bowl winner. I have Lawrence as my QB14, well ahead of fellow second-year quarterbacks Trey Lance and Justin Fields.
Running Back Sleeper: Devin Singletary, Buffalo Bills
FantasyPros ADP: 81; My Rank: 49
The Bills were one of the more frustrating backfields in 2021, as they went back and forth between Singletary and Zack Moss for much of the season. Buffalo finally handed Singletary the lead-back duties down the stretch, and he responded by averaging 18.3 points per game in the final five weeks of the regular season. It continued in the playoffs, as he scored a total of 36 points in the Bills’ two playoff games. And even more important to note, Moss had just one carry in the postseason. James Cook was drafted in the second round, which has some concerned, but he’s seen as more of a pass-catching back than a three-down player. Singletary is the lead-back in a high-octane offense, which gives him the potential to finish in the top 15 at the position.
Running Back Bust: Damien Harris, New England Patriots
FantasyPros ADP: 64; My Rank: 78
Harris finished 2021 tied for second in rushing touchdowns and carries inside the 10, behind Jonathan Taylor in both categories. That would make you think he should be drafted much higher. I’m not buying it. Harris offers next to nothing as a receiver, and in the second half of the year, he was evenly splitting carries with Rhamondre Stevenson. Speaking of Stevenson, he’s been seeing a lot of work in passing situations while also getting first-team reps during training camp. Harris is due for a regression in touchdowns and carries with Stevenson out of Bill Belichick’s doghouse.
Running Back Breakout: Tyler Allgeier, Atlanta Falcons
FantasyPros ADP: 150; My Rank: 105
Rhamondre Stevenson was a candidate here, but I’ll go with the rookie out of BYU. Cordarrelle Patterson was a fantasy star last season, but he had more offensive touches (205) than any other season of his career (career-high 85 in 2020). Despite Patterson’s efforts, the Falcons still finished as the 31st-ranked rushing offense. Enter Allgeier, who has proven he can handle the workload after totaling 304 touches, 1,800 total yards and 23 touchdowns last season for the Cougars. Head coach Arthur Smith got the job in Atlanta after heavily riding Derrick Henry on the ground and he wants to bring that style of play to Atlanta. Patterson will be a jack-of-all-trades once again, but Allgeier will handle the bulk of the carries by season’s end.
Wide Receiver Sleeper: Brandin Cooks, Houston Texans
FantasyPros ADP: 49; My Rank: 32
What else does Cooks need to do to finally get some respect? He’s finished as a top-20 receiver in six of the last seven seasons, and if not for a 2019 injury that cut short a possible 1,000-yard season, it would be seven straight. He’s coming off a career high in targets (134) and receptions (90). No other Texan came close in production. Nico Collins was second on the team in both categories with 60 targets and 33 grabs. I’m going to have Cooks on a ton of fantasy teams this year.
Wide Receiver Bust: Tyler Lockett, Seattle Seahawks
FantasyPros ADP: 95; My Rank: 115
Lockett has always been a boom-or-bust player, but he has no business being drafted in the top 100 players. The quarterback situation is the worst in the NFL with either Geno Smith or Drew Lock running the offense. D.K. Metcalf, who I also have ranked much lower than the consensus, is still the top receiving option on the roster. Sure, Lockett had five games in which he scored 20-plus fantasy points last year, but he also had six games with single-digit scoring, including a five-week stretch during which he averaged 4.9 half-PPR points per game. I want nothing to do with that type of inconsistency.
Wide Receiver Breakout: Jalen Tolbert, Dallas Cowboys
FantasyPros ADP: 221; My Rank: 148
This is a deep play but expect the rookie out of South Alabama to rise up draft boards in the coming weeks. It is well documented that Michael Gallup will miss time because of a torn ACL suffered in January, but the latest news out of the Big D is James Washington will miss 6-10 weeks with a fractured foot. That makes Tolbert the de facto No. 2 receiver in an offense that finished first in total yards and scoring, second in passing yards and third in passing touchdowns in 2021. Tolbert is almost guaranteed a role in Dallas’ high-powered offense given the team’s injuries and Amari Cooper and Cedric Wilson’s offseason departures. He’s someone you can target with your final picks. He could end up as a top-100 player.
Tight End Sleeper: Irv Smith Jr., Minnesota Vikings
FantasyPros ADP: 134; My Rank: 108
Smith was a popular sleeper pick last year before a season-ending meniscus injury, and if healthy — he recently underwent surgery on his thumb — he figures to see a lot of looks in an offense that features Justin Jefferson. New head coach Kevin O’Connell comes from the Rams, and despite having Robert Woods, Odell Beckham Jr. and several other talented wide receivers at his disposal, it was tight end Tyler Higbee who finished second on the team in receptions. Smith is a matchup nightmare who has added motivation in a contract year and no competition at the position with Tyler Conklin now with the Jets. Smith is one of my favorite targets if you want to wait until the later rounds for a tight end.
Tight End Bust: Dawson Knox, Buffalo Bills
FantasyPros ADP: 102; My Rank: 144
Knox is currently ranked as TE10 and it makes me scratch my head. He did find the end zone nine times last season, the same number of touchdowns as Mark Andrews, Travis Kelce and Hunter Henry, but his numbers otherwise were not top-10 worthy. He was tied for 18th in receptions, 19th in receiving yards and 20th in targets. The Bills added O.J. Howard this offseason and it is no secret they were looking to upgrade at the position at last year’s trade deadline. There are 15 tight ends I want before Knox.
Tight End Breakout: Albert Okwuegbunam, Denver Broncos
FantasyPros ADP: 141; My Rank: 134
The Russell Wilson trade was not only great for the franchise quarterback but the tight end situation in Denver as well. Noah Fant was included in the trade to Seattle after finishing as TE12 while sharing snaps with Okwuegbunam. The season-ending injury to Tim Patrick opens up more targets for the big, athletic tight end. Wilson has targeted his tight end on an average of 23 percent or routes run during his career. With an upgrade in playing time and quarterback, AO has the potential to finish in the top 10 in fantasy’s thinnest position.
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