Danny Black: Why Quarterbacks Are Safest Long-Term Strategy For Buying NFL Cards

If you are a fan of the NFL, you undoubtedly have strong feelings about quarterbacks. No other position elicits emotion from fans like the quarterback position. Is Joe Flacco elite? Should Lamar Jackson sign a long-term contract? What if you could have any quarterback this year? Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert, Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady and others would all be reasonable answers.

But I’m willing to bet that as you read those names you had a favorite in your mind. We all have a favorite quarterback in any conversation — best fantasy quarterbacks, best quarterbacks to bet on, the quarterback you would want on your team and so many more topics this time of year. But how about the best guard or safety? No one cares like they do for quarterbacks. Even running backs are popular for a short window. Name me the last running back who was at the top of their game for seven years in a row? Our love for running backs is fleeting, but it’s out of necessity.

Who do you think is the best quarterback of all time? I think most people reading this agree that Johnny Unitas is the original GOAT. However, that conversation and so many more will never end, but we love having them!

My job is cards and memorabilia. So all of these questions I keep asking, they are what can make my job fun! But do these quarterback emotions impact card prices? Oh yeah, you bet they do!

In fact, the NFL cards with the most value are far and away the quarterbacks. This is true for both current quarterbacks and Hall of Fame players. Sure, Jerry Rice and Jim Brown have some very expensive cards, but this is the exception to the rule. At the time of this writing, 23 of the last 25 most expensive NFL cards sold on eBay recently were quarterbacks. Shout out to Justin Jefferson and Travis Etienne for making the list!

Let us examine some of the all-time greats. I compared a 1957 Topps John Unitas rookie against a 1958 Topps Jim Brown rookie. I compared both cards using a condition grade of PSA 8. I chose these cards in this specific grade for several reasons. First of all, there is almost the exact same amount of each card in the PSA 8 grade (190 for Unitas and 200 for Brown). That is important for trying to reduce variables such as supply. I also wanted to pick players of similar eras to try and capture a consistent buyer demographic. These findings are very interesting!

During the last two years the Jim Brown rookie card has gone up 21.8 percent. That is a very good rate of return, no doubt. However, the Johnny Unitas RC has gone up 273.5 percent. Yes, that is correct! This is the quarterback premium that other positions usually can’t match. I could show many more examples of players from the ’50s and ’60s, but how about the more modern players?

Let’s compare two players who dominated during the ’80s and ’90s, Barry Sanders and Dan Marino. Neither player won a Super Bowl, but both were considered elite. They retired within one year of each other. and collectors have had a chance to reflect on each of their careers. Well guess what the results show? In the last two years, Barry Sanders’ 1989 Score RC (PSA 10) has decreased almost 23 percent. However, in those same two years, Dan Marino’s 1984 Topps RC (PSA 10) has increased almost 57 percent.

So you want to buy cards of current NFL players? Well, after looking at the information above I think it is safe to say that quarterbacks are the safest long-term strategy. I always advise having as much information as possible. It is fair to say that Patrick Mahomes, Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers have a longer track record than Justin Herbert, Joe Burrow or Josh Allen. But at the same time, the best could be yet to come for the younger players. As long as you stick with quarterbacks, the better chance you have to maximize financial return. Some cards such as Jonathan Taylor or Ja’Marr Chase might get an occasional bump, but in general stick with the field generals!

Have you had cards since you were a kid and now you want to sell them? Please email any questions to Danny@SportsBalt.com or visit SportsBalt.com

See Also: Introducing Baltimore Sports Collectibles Founder Danny Black

Photo Credits: Kenya Allen/PressBox

Danny Black

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