According to ESPN Player Rater, only five pitchers who were drafted in the top 20 at the position back in March finished in the top 12 in terms of fantasy production.
We have stressed the last few seasons that waiting on starting pitchers is a viable strategy, and it proved to be true once again in 2022. We need to remember this in 2023.
Three Up:
Houston Astros Starting Pitcher Justin Verlander — It’s pretty crazy that one of the best pitchers of the last decade-plus and a first-ballot Hall of Famer would be a surprise in 2022, but that’s the situation with Verlander. The 39-year-old was coming off Tommy John surgery that cost him the entire 2021 season, and he may be a better pitcher than he’s ever been. This is not a hot take, as Verlander has an eye-popping 1.80 ERA that would be a career best. The two-time Cy Young Award winner is about to add a third. Verlander was the 29th starting pitcher taken in March and has easily crushed his draft day value.
Toronto Blue Jays Starting Pitcher Alek Manoah — I’m proud of this one, as Manoah was mentioned as a breakout candidate back in March and he delivered in a big way. The right-hander was drafted as the 26th starting pitcher in the preseason and finished fourth, according to ESPN Player Rater. Manoah enters the final days of the season with a 2.31 ERA and 1.00 WHIP. The 24 year-old will easily be drafted as a top-five starter in 2023, so those who waited on pitching this year and targeted the youngster benefited in a big way.
Arizona Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Zac Gallen — The Diamondbacks are on the cusp of being a really good team, as they mix a very talented minor league system with viable veterans. Overall, Gallen has pitched decently in his career, but a hiccup in 2021 dropped his draft day value to 45 in terms of starting pitchers. The right-hander rebounded this season, as he enters the final stretch of games with a 2.46 ERA and 0.894 WHIP. Gallen has been durable as well, hitting the 30-start mark. Gallen will certainly be drafted within the top 20 at the position in 2023.
Three Down:
Toronto Blue Jays Starting Pitcher José Berríos — There’s no other way to put it other than the right-hander has been a huge disappointment. Berríos was drafted as the 18th starting pitcher in the preseason and is pitching to a 5.37 ERA. It would be nice to put some blame on injury, but Berríos has made 31 starts this season. Most fantasy owners probably cut bait and just took the loss of a high draft pick. It will be interesting to see where Berríos will be drafted next season. My guess is he will fall outside the top 30 at the position, which puts him back into the discussion of bounce-back candidates.
Chicago White Sox Starting Pitcher Lucas Giolito — The struggles of Giolito will be a mystery all offseason, triggering a debate of what to do with him next season. Outside of his first full season in 2018, Giolito had never finished a season with an ERA above 3.53. It fell apart this year, as the righty pitched to a 5.05 ERA. Like with Berrios, we can’t blame injuries. Giolito enters the final week having started 28 games, so it’s just a very disappointing year. It hurts even more that he was the 10th starting pitcher taken.
San Diego Padres Reliever Josh Hader — The left-hander went from a 1.23 ERA in 2021 to a 5.40 ERA this season. Hader had been one of the most dominant relievers in baseball, which led to him being drafted in Round 3 this past March. Even though he will still finish with 30-plus saves (he currently has 34), this is a huge disappointment. We expect Hader to not only rack up saves but help with our pitching ratios. That was not the case in 2022.
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