The grind that started back in March is officially over, and I hope many of you were able to win a fantasy baseball championship. I like to end things on a high note, so we will look back at what went right in the past seven months.
Where I Was Right
Toronto Blue Jays Starting Pitcher Alek Manoah Breaks Out — I’m super proud of this one. We identified early that Monoah not only was being drafted too low, but he had potential to break out. Manoah was drafted in the seventh round after showing promise in 2021. The right-hander had strong strikeout numbers, which is always a target when drafting a pitcher.
In 2022, Manoah exploded on the scene and finished fourth in all of baseball with a 2.24 ERA. If it wasn’t for Astros starting pitcher Justin Verlander having an insane season, Manoah could be the frontrunner for the American League Cy Young Award. When you wait on starting pitchers in the draft, the 24-year-old is the perfect example of the kind of player to target. He showed flashes the year before, is young and has the ability to strike out hitters. There’s no doubt the righty will be one of the first pitchers taken in 2023.
Tampa Bay Rays Starting Pitcher Shane McClanahan Breaks Out — It’s not often that we hit on two pitchers breaking out, fitting the wait-on-starters strategy perfectly. However, that was the case in 2022. McClanahan was almost as dominant as Manoah. The left-hander was drafted as the 31st pitcher in March but finished eighth in all of baseball in ERA at 2.54. McClanahan was also eighth in all of baseball with 10.5 strikeouts per nine innings. It feels good to identify these two starters, especially considering they were on many championship rosters. The goal in 2023 is to identify the next Manoah and McClanahan, as both pitchers will now run contrary to our wait-on-starters strategy.
Seattle Mariners Outfielder Jesse Winker Overvalued — Winker had an OPS of at least .830 in every season of his career and was coming off a year in which he hit .305 and 24 home runs. This led Winker to having an average draft position of 99. However, something changed in the offseason. The left-handed hitter was traded from a friendly home stadium in Cincinnati to a bigger ballpark in Seattle. I expected regression in 2022 but didn’t expect Winker to struggle as much as he did. In 136 games, Winker hit .219 with 14 home runs and a career-low OPS of .688. It will be hard to trust Winker in 2023.
Manny Machado To Hit Over 28.5 Home Runs (-110)
This was my favorite bet of the preseason, though we had a huge scare in June when Machado slipped on first base and hurt his ankle. I thought for sure he was lost for the season, but he returned and played the rest of the season. Machado cleared this home run mark on Sept. 18 and finished with 32 this season.
These bets are always tricky, as one injury can really impact everything. However, this home run total should have been 30.5, so there was enough value in my opinion. We will look to take advantage of something like this again in 2023.
Philadelphia Phillies To Make Playoffs (-128)
We had to sweat this out way too much, as the Phillies tried to blow it down the stretch. This bet also didn’t look great early in the season when they were struggling, which led to manager Joe Girardi’s firing. However, the Phillies clinched the playoffs with a couple of days left in the season to cash our ticket.
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