As we enter Week 7, I have three weeks of picks in the books. I’m just a tick under .500 at 7-8-1. Certainly, when one makes picks the goal can’t be just .500. It’s got to be .580 or above before you can be taken seriously.
So, you decide from this point forward if I am worth taking seriously.
Cleveland Browns (2-4) at Baltimore Ravens (3-3)
Line: Baltimore -6.5
The Ravens are mired in a string of fourth-quarter collapses, but when you sit and watch the games, it’s been more than that. It’s been as much about an inability to cash in at earlier points in the game, pushing the contest beyond reach of the opposition.
I feel confident the Ravens will prevail at home against the Browns this week. Where I become a contrarian is the number of points attached. I don’t see the Ravens’ confidence being high enough at each position to make me think they win all that easily.
Prediction: Baltimore 29, CLEVELAND 24
Atlanta Falcons (3-3) at Cincinnati Bengals (3-3)
Line: Cincinnati -6.5
This line is a bit of a head-scratcher for me. I get not believing in the Falcons, but not respecting them is a whole different thing. The Falcons are 6-0 against the spread so far in 2022. Marcus Mariota is playing a lot more like the former No. 2 pick of the 2015 draft should have been playing all along.
Joe Burrow had an appendectomy just as training camp was getting underway and missed much of camp. The result of that lost time? The Bengals’ offense is a bit of a work in progress.
This game is the exact same scenario as the Ravens-Browns game, with the home team favored by a large number. I think the Falcons are more capable of pulling off the upset and winning the game, but I’ll go with the Bengals to get the W. Still, I think the line is a bit out of line.
Prediction: Cincinnati 27, ATLANTA 25
Houston Texans (1-3) at Las Vegas Raiders (1-4)
Line: Las Vegas -7
This is a game between two teams that have combined to win just two games in the first six weeks of the season — seems like a 2-3 point spread for the home team to me. So immediately, the fact that the Raiders are favored by a full touchdown opened my eyes to the real value here.
The Raiders have posted a -5 point differential but have scored 125 points. The Texans have a -13 point differential but have scored just 86 points. The Raiders should be able to generate a decent pass rush against Davis Mills and get a turnover or two because of it. I can’t see the Texans keeping up with a flawed but dynamic Raiders team in this game.
Prediction: LAS VEGAS 29, Houston 16
Seattle Seahawks (3-3) at Los Angeles Chargers (4-2)
Line: Los Angeles -5.5
This must be the week for favored home teams to have too big a number attached to them. No question that Justin Herbert will be a big-time quarterback at some point in his career. In fact, one could make the argument that he is like a young version of Matthew Stafford. Not sure he has had the benefit of a good head coach in the first few years of his career, though.
The Chargers will also be without their No. 1 kicker, Dustin Hopkins, who’ll likely miss 2-4 weeks with a badly strained hamstring. That’s enough for me to think this line is high. I can see the Seahawks winning outright here.
Prediction: SEATTLE 23, Los Angeles 20
Kansas City Chiefs (4-2) at San Francisco 49ers (3-3)
Line: Kansas City -2.5
If you want to look for a positive for the Chiefs after they lost at home to the tough Buffalo Bills, here it is: The Chiefs got up close with their chief AFC rival and now know they’d better pick up the pace. I think Kansas City’s loss to Buffalo will serve as the motivation it needs to not take anyone lightly for a while.
As for the 49ers, they’ve been all over the place so far this season, beating the Rams (don’t they always?) while losing to the Broncos and Bears.
The Chiefs should prevail with a big, big game.
Prediction: KANSAS CITY 34, San Francisco 19
Chicago Bears (2-4) at New England Patriots (3-3)
Line: New England -7.5
Despite his dynamic play as the backup quarterback, Bailey Zappe will reportedly take a seat on the bench whenever Mac Jones returns from a high ankle sprain. That may come against the Bears on “Monday Night Football.” I am not so sure the Pats will have the better quarterback on the field, but what Zappe’s play has probably done is light a fire under Jones.
Jones came into camp and he knew he was the starter. Perhaps it was a bit of the sophomore jinx or just complacency. Whichever it was, Jones is fortunate Patriots head coach Bill Belichick will allow him to slide back into the starting role.
So, either Jones will start to raise his level of play or he might just find his way to the bench if the scales tip in favor of Zappe. The judge will ultimately choose, and it’ll be all about who gives the Pats the best chance to win.
The Patriots have scored 67 points against the Lions and Browns in their past two games. But the more significant turnaround might be from their defense, which has allowed a total of 15 points during that span.
Now a bad offense comes to town. Looks like bad timing for the hapless Bears.
Prediction: NEW ENGLAND 34, Chicago 16
Photo Credit: Kenya Allen/PressBox