When Nick Castellanos’ ninth-inning foul fly landed in Kyle Tucker’s glove on Nov. 5, the curtain came down on the 2022 baseball season. And behind that curtain was the beginning of the 2023 season.
Nowhere is there more optimism for the 2023 season than here in Birdland. The 2022 season was the 39th season since the Orioles last appeared in a World Series. The Orioles won that series in five games against the Phillies.
It was the Orioles’ sixth appearance in the World Series in 18 seasons — ’66, ’69, ’70, ’71, ’79 and ’83. The Orioles won one World Series in three consecutive decades (’66, ’70 and ’83). Especially in the Earl Weaver years, the Orioles were a perennial contender. As such, they were almost always the team with the bullseye on its back.
That all began to change after 1983. Aside from a couple brief close calls (’96 and ’97 as well as 2012-2016) the Orioles have failed on the field and have seen their once prodigious drawing power siphoned off by lots of losing, the arrival and success of the Ravens and then the arrival of the Washington Nationals.
However, as pessimistic as all that sounds, Mike Elias arrived in November 2018 and the first layer of what he has built in the Orioles’ farm system is starting to pay dividends.
Adley Rutschman and Gunnar Henderson thrilled fans in 2022, and there is plenty more on the way. The prospects closest to being big-league ready appear to be right-hander Grayson Rodriguez and infielder Jordan Westburg.
A cursory look shows the Orioles’ most serious deficiencies now are on the offensive side of the ball. While there is plenty of work to be done, the two World Series combatants of 2022 aren’t in some sort of parallel universe and so far out of reach that it will take a long time for the Orioles to be legitimate World Series contenders.
Don’t get me wrong, the pitching staff needs a good bit of work, but some of that help looks like it could be right around the corner with Rodriguez ready to take a rotation spot to start the season and John Means (Tommy John surgery) due back at some point during the 2023 season.
But take a look at how the Orioles stacked up offensively against the Astros and Phillies during the 2022 regular season:
| Team | Runs | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
| Phillies | 747 | .253 | .317 | .422 | .739 |
| Astros | 737 | .248 | .319 | .424 | .743 |
| Orioles | 674 | .236 | .305 | .390 | .695 |
I spoke to Shane Turner, a good friend of Ross Grimsley’s, the other night on our weekly Monday baseball Zoom. He was pretty adamant that a true championship contender should ideally be in the mid-.330s in on-base percentage.
Let’s not forget, we may have had lighter on-base percentages across baseball in recent years in part because of the heavy dose of overshifting that we’ve seen. That goes away next year. That might help some of the Orioles’ left-handed bats, such as Gunnar Henderson and Cedric Mullins, as well as switch-hitters Adley Rutschman and Anthony Santander.
But the softening of shifting doesn’t look like it will help the club’s prominent right-handed bats, such as Ryan Mountcastle, Austin Hays, Ramón Urías and Jorge Mateo. These four simply need to force pitchers to get them out rather than aiding pitchers by routinely swinging at balls out of the strike zone.
Look, it’s very simple. The 2022 Orioles had three classes of offensive players:
Adley Rutschman (.362), Gunnar Henderson (.348), Trey Mancini (.347), Cedric Mullins (.318), Anthony Santander (.318) got 2,322 plate appearances.
Austin Hays (.306), Ryan Mountcastle (.305), Ramón Urías (.305), Rougned Odor (.275) and Jorge Mateo (.269) got 2,641 plate appearances.
Tyler Nevin (.299), Ryan McKenna (.294), Robinson Chirinos (.265), Chris Owings (.254), Kelvin Gutiérrez (.250), Richie Martin (.242), Anthony Bemboom (.207), Jonathan Araúz (.207) and Brett Phillips (.118) got 815 plate appearances.
As much as many took a liking to Rougned Odor — and I know he helped the mindset in Brandon Hyde’s clubhouse — I can’t see him back. Just giving my two cents on the recent pickup of outfielder Jake Cave — you can’t really try to attack the on-base issues by adding one or two .380 types. Maybe Cave can see 225 to 240 at-bats against right-handers and get you a .320.
Sure, Elias has to strike on a couple of key guys this offseason. That sets up the possibility that Santander, Mullins, Urías, Hays or Mountcastle is used along with prospects to get you a pitching assist.
Some of the clarity about who really is available in free agency comes clearer soon when the deadline to pick up player options comes and goes.
The 2023 season starts now. And without being unrealistic, you can paint some scenarios where the O’s can be players in the playoff hunt. How deeply relevant will depend a lot on Mike Elias’ work this offseason.
See Also: Stan ‘The Fan’ Charles Sets Up Orioles’ Areas For Improvement: Starting Rotation
Photo Credits: Colin Murphy/PressBox