I refuse to move the goal posts.
I wrote a column for PressBox in July explaining that even though the Orioles had managed to completely turn their season around, I would not define the season as “playoffs or bust.” I still believed the postseason was an unreasonable expectation for a team whose “arrival” this season was, in all practicality, a bit early.
Instead, I suggested that I would measure “success” for the 2022 Orioles by whether they played a meaningful game in Baltimore on Labor Day. And so … success! We didn’t get many past Labor Day, but this season, without question, provided us a reminder of what a playoff chase tastes like.
As the Orioles tailed off down the stretch, it was easy for fans to numb the pain by reminding themselves that the story was always about “next year.” And they’re right. As much fun as it would have been for the Orioles to play in the postseason this year, even the team itself (through its moves at the trade deadline) made it abundantly clear that the priority was 2023.
And with Adley Rutschman and Gunnar Henderson set to be in the lineup starting on Opening Day, there’s real reason to believe the Orioles will be ready to take another major step forward in 2023. That’s probably fair. Rutschman’s .806 OPS and 5.2 WAR in 113 games show signs of a player set for superstardom in the next couple of years. Henderson had moments of pure brilliance during his own 34-game cameo this season.
I use this to frame my two most significant thoughts regarding the Orioles’ offseason.
First, they have work to do. The Orioles finished in the bottom half of baseball in both runs scored and ERA this season, making their success all the more remarkable. They appear to have lots of internal candidates for their rotation next season — Grayson Rodriguez, Dean Kremer, Kyle Bradish, Austin Voth, Tyler Wells, DL Hall, John Means when healthy and Jordan Lyles should his option be picked up. Still, it’s hard to ignore the need for a more legitimate “top guy,” at least for the short term until Rodriguez might prove capable of being that guy.
It’s easy to throw around the name of Giants pitcher Carlos Rodón, who opted out of his current two-year deal. We have to remember however that Rodón, at 30, could prove to be the most desirable long-term option on the starting pitching market and that the Orioles have never paid more than a four-year, $57 million contract (Alex Cobb) for a pitcher. It still feels very unlikely that Rodón will be the guy.
But it’s not just the pitching. The demise of the Orioles’ playoff hopes seemed to coincide with the downfall of their lineup. Rutschman and Henderson are, of course, focal parts. But there is a danger in the Orioles remaining committed to players who have been solid but not necessarily spectacular. There are strong arguments for Cedric Mullins, Anthony Santander and Ryan Mountcastle to remain in the lineup and even solid arguments for the likes of Austin Hays, Ramón Urías and Jorge Mateo.
Yet if the Orioles remain committed to all of these players, they’re essentially bringing back the exact same order that proved to be disappointing as the 2022 season went on. There’s no easy solution here. Awkward decisions might have to be made. It’s hard to fathom being fully committed on anything about the order outside of Rutschman and Henderson, but they can’t totally overhaul the group, either.
And then there’s the second thing.
The second thing is … if they’re spending money, what’s the best way for them to spend it? Perhaps I sound like a broken record, but I remain convinced that the most significant move the Orioles can make this offseason is to spend money on their own guys. Nothing could possibly electrify this fan base more than to see the Orioles plant their flag with a Rutschman or a Henderson by buying out arbitration years.
That’s the uncomfortable part about “next year,” right? We have every right to believe they’ll be better, and they have given indications that they’ll take the necessary steps. But what exactly will allow them to make up the difference and move in the direction of being a World Series contender?
I very much believe this is a baseball team on the rise. And we know there is still talent coming internally via the likes of Colton Cowser and Jordan Westburg and Heston Kjerstad and Jackson Holliday and the list goes on.
But “next year” fascinates me. It will be quite interesting to see just how different things might look as we move toward Opening Day.
Photo Credit: Colin Murphy/PressBox
Issue 277: October/November 2022
Originally published Oct. 19, 2022