While many fans will be looking for baseball’s annual winter meetings to jump start the trade and free-agent market, the biggest news may come out of what shapes up as an historic meeting and announcement this weekend.
The Hall of Fame’s 16-member Contemporary Era Committee will consider the careers of eight players whose careers spanned the last 40 years — Albert Belle, Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Don Mattingly, Fred McGriff, Dale Murphy, Rafael Palmeiro and Curt Schilling. Any candidate getting 75 percent of the vote (12 or more) will be inducted as part of the Hall of Fame class of 2023.
Without a clear leader among those who didn’t gain induction last year, and the absence of a slam-dunk first-year candidate among the newcomers on this year’s ballot, the results of this year’s version of what was formerly known as the Veterans Committee could determine if there will be any new inductees this year.
This year’s ballot, probably the strongest for any Veterans Committee since the early days of the Hall of Fame, is historical because it will be the first time a committee, which revolves annually, will consider candidates from the so-called Steroid Era.
Bonds and Clemens, the poster boys of that timeframe, are not only first-timers for this committee but also carryovers from the roster of 10-year players annually considered by the Baseball Writers’ Association of America. Bonds (66 percent last year) and Clemens (65.2 percent) saw their support grow throughout the years as the electorate got younger. They figure to dominate the discussion this weekend, which will result in the announcement of any new candidates at 8 p.m. on MLB Network Sunday night.
The 16-member committee is made up of seven Hall of Fame players (Chipper Jones, Greg Maddux, Jack Morris, Ryne Sandberg, Lee Smith, Frank Thomas, and Alan Trammell), six baseball executives (Paul Beeston, Theo Epstein, Arte Moreno, Kim Ng, Dave St. Peter and Ken Williams) and three media-historian members (Steve Hirdt, LaVelle Neal and Susan Slusser).
While the Bonds-Clemens issue figures to command most attention, it is clear that any candidate will have to generate strong support from the players on the committee. Many Hall of Famers, especially the longest-tenured, have expressed strong opinions that those identified with use of performance-enhancing drugs should not qualify for Hall of Fame status. But there are some with more lenient feelings. All of which leads to the speculation that the discussion will be as lively as it will be interesting.
With some media votes of past elections on public record, indications are that if Bonds and Clemens get full support of the players, not a given, they would need at least two votes from the executives to get to 12 votes. With committee members restricted to three votes, reaching that minimum makes for a tricky numbers game, especially with other strong candidates to consider.
Almost lost in the shuffle is Schilling, who has been part of a controversy of his own, related more to his thoughts than his on-field actions, and he too figures to generate much discussion. Of those in the wings, McGriff has drawn the most widespread favorable discussion while Belle, a lightning rod in his own way as a player, has statistics that have flown under the radar.
Palmeiro will fit into the discussion about Bonds and Clemens while a pair of perennial favorites, Mattingly and Murphy, are seemingly at a disadvantage on a ballot that contains players of more recent vintage.
With so many variables in play, it’s difficult to predict how this vote will go. Even with all the controversy, the ballot is so strong that it’s possible the vote could be split to the extent that nobody gets the necessary 12 votes. If there is one candidate who has a chance to stand above the crowd it would be McGriff, who has almost unanimous support among baseball’s hierarchy. It is a given that Jones and Maddux, two former teammates, will speak strongly on his behalf and their words will not go unnoticed.
If I had to make a guess, I think there’s a good chance McGriff is the sole survivor here, with Schilling a wild card. I don’t believe Bonds and Clemens will come close to getting the support they will need from the players. A blank slate because of a split vote is a possibility, but I think there’s enough talent on the ballot that somehow, someone will survive the cut, and McGriff is the best bet, to borrow the pet phrase of the year.
Jim Henneman can be reached at JimH@pressboxonline.com
Photo Credit: Courtesy of the Atlanta Braves