This is a time when people reflect on 2022 and make predictions heading into 2023. My reflections and predictions relate to the sports cards and collectibles industry.
2022 saw so many changes that we almost have to catch our breath and look at those before we can examine 2023. Fanatics continues to dominate the card business, and every move it makes has ripple effects on almost every aspect of the card world. Grading companies, auction houses, card vaults (more on that later) and many other areas have grown in the last couple of years. As the economy has turned and the card market has softened, it has forced much change for a lot of the companies that entered the business during the peak of the pandemic when money was flowing very freely in the hobby.
2023, in my opinion, will see a number of changes. Many companies — such as Collectors, PWCC, Beckett, eBay and many more — will form their own ecosystem of marketplace, grading, data, vaulting, etc. The mergers, acquisitions and viability of these companies will be very much based upon which ecosystem customers choose to work with. The nature of buying, selling and vaulting means there are huge advantages to keeping your business with one company, similar to choosing between an Android and an iPhone. As such, it becomes easier to deal with all of the ancillary aspects related to the hobby and collecting.
This could be a very good thing for a lot of collectors. It could lower prices from stronger opportunities, provide better platforms from which to shop and weed out a lot of the companies that have not formed a strong foundation in the past couple of years.
I could also see some other changes. I believe Fanatics will dive deeper into the traditional card market than was originally anticipated. Fanatics has already ventured into the NFT card market, but I expect the company to shift its focus almost fully toward tangible cards. Fanatics now owns Topps and many of the distribution and printing companies. I do think that local card shops will be influenced by any decisions that Fanatics makes, including who gets how many cards (and boxes) and what price they’ll be sold for in their stores. This will be the biggest story of 2023 for a lot of people, especially those who make their business in the card shop world or online as a breaker.
Speaking of breakers, I do expect a huge drop-off in the amount of breakers and the amount of content put out by breakers during the course of the year. The amount of people with disposable income to spend on online breaks has dropped dramatically. Layoffs have already started at many of the large breaking companies, and some of the smaller breakers have already gone out of business. This is not a knock on breaking, just a reality on how much the market can handle. The best breakers should remain in business.
I also think that industry news information and content will continue to grow. Much of the uncertainty from news and data analysis grabs people’s attention as they look for answers to the future. Data in the hobby has been and will continue to be one of the most important aspects for every major company. Some platforms even offer direct-to-consumer data information, similar to stock investing research tools. I think this data, along with news content creators, will make for a much more educated consumer base.
Finally, as far as trends in products go, I believe that tickets and game-used memorabilia will have a much stronger growth year than the card market overall. However, within the card market, I expect vintage cards (typically pre-1981) to be the strongest category by far, just as they have been for decades. The availability on game-used tickets and game-used uniforms isn’t high. It’s that scarcity that creates interest and value, especially as physical tickets are disappearing and paper tickets have traditionally not been well kept, if they’ve been kept at all.
I am excited about 2023 for many reasons. Hopefully box prices dip at our local card shops, the financial strength of the vintage market remains healthy and the education of the consumer stays strong. However, there most likely will continue to be an overabundance of modern products produced.
Happy collecting in 2023!
Have you had cards since you were a kid and now you want to sell them? Please email any questions to Danny@SportsBalt.com or visit SportsBalt.com
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