Fantasy baseball draft season is upon us, and we are beginning to have a clearer understanding of how draft boards are shaping up. The crew at Fantasy Pros has compiled a list of players and sorted them based on their average draft position (ADP) across six major fantasy baseball platforms. In my debut piece for PressBox, I want to highlight four hitters I love this season at their current ADP.
Later, we will take a look at undervalued pitchers.
Texas Rangers 1B Nathaniel Lowe — 98.8 ADP (1B-8)
Why I love him: Lowe might be the best player in baseball who most casual fans have never heard of. He’s not on the same level as Paul Goldschmidt or Freddie Freeman. He doesn’t have the upside of a Vladimir Guerrero Jr. He’s not going to match Pete Alonso’s home run total and he’s probably not better than Matt Olson. But I would put Lowe up against any other first baseman in the league.
His offensive profile in 2022 was similar to that of José Abreu — but with nearly double the home runs. He began the season hitting mainly fifth to seventh in the Rangers’ lineup and by the end of the year was cemented in the third slot, sandwiched between Corey Seager and Adolis García. Not a bad place to be for the 27-year-old lefty who, by the way, rakes against left-handed pitching. He’s not a guy whose production is reliant on platoon matchups. If you miss out on getting one of the elite first basemen early in your draft, snag Lowe in the 10th round and reap the rewards.
Why I might be wrong: Globe Life Field is not the easiest place to hit. One could point to Lowe’s home-road splits as a testament to that fact. With that said, Lowe’s production at home is still satisfactory. The other interesting piece of Lowe’s profile is that, while his power numbers went up in 2022, his walks went way down. If he can return to the more disciplined hitter he was in 2021 without sacrificing much in the way of batted-ball ability, then watch out.
Los Angeles Angels OF Taylor Ward — 127.6 ADP (OF-32)
Why I love him: Ward was the Angels’ most popular leadoff and cleanup hitter in 2022, and he performed equally well in each of those slots in the batting order. He’s expected to hit primarily leadoff in 2023, and behind him will be a couple of guys named Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani. His batted-ball profile is exceptional, and his .281/.360/.473 slash line last season was good for top 10 among all major league outfielders in each category, as was his 137 wRC+. Ward would likely be drafted as more of a depth piece as a 13th-round pick in 2023, but I believe his production will exceed what you would expect from your third or fourth outfielder.
Why I might be wrong: The summer months of 2022 were tough for Ward, who crashed into an outfield wall in late May and dealt with some nerve damage in his neck and shoulder, which hindered his mechanics and decreased his bat speed for a while. Despite the tough three-month stretch, Ward’s season-long numbers were still excellent, and when he finally began feeling like himself again, he showed that his scorching-hot start to the season may not have been a fluke. It’s possible, though, that he is susceptible to a prolonged slump, which could be a concern moving forward.
Cincinnati Reds C Tyler Stephenson — 166.6 ADP (C-11)
Why I love him: In my eyes, there’s a clear top five when it comes to fantasy catchers right now: J.T. Realmuto, Adley Rutschman, Will Smith, Daulton Varsho and Salvador Perez, in no particular order. Beyond that, there’s a legitimate case to be made for Stephenson to be next in line. The 26-year-old former first-rounder has done nothing but hit and break bones since his first major league call-up. He is a career .296 hitter in 190 games with respectable but unspectacular power numbers for a catcher. It should also be noted that Great American Ball Park is one of the most hitter-friendly stadiums in baseball.
The injury history doesn’t concern me. Stephenson isn’t out there straining ligaments and pulling muscles — he’s getting beaten up behind the plate, which brings me to another point in favor of drafting Stephenson. He’s going to play a good deal of first base this season, regaining eligibility at a position that he played a bit in 2021. Reds manager David Bell said he expects Stephenson to catch about 65 games this year, with the rest of his time spent at first base and designated hitter. Clearly, this is a guy the Reds want in their lineup, and he’s someone I want in my fantasy lineup.
Why I might be wrong: Stephenson didn’t have a huge prospect pedigree and was a fine but not great hitter throughout his minor league career. His home-road splits paint two different pictures, and there’s a chance his true talent level is more along the lines of what we’ve seen from him on the road. That said, he still gets to play half of his games at home, where he’s excelled.
Miami Marlins INF Luis Arráez — 204.4 ADP (1B-22, 2B-20)
Why I love him: This one’s pretty simple. The reigning American League batting champion is being drafted in the 21st round. Last season, the league-wide batting average was the lowest it had been since 1968. Arráez offers a ton of value in that category. He’s not a sexy pick, but he’s a reliable depth piece. The dual eligibility at first and second base is a plus and especially helpful if your league has flexible roster spots for corner and middle infield.
Why I might be wrong: Arráez won’t provide much in the way of power or speed, which can be a hindrance to a fantasy roster. With that said, his power numbers improved a bit last season and his spray chart shows that he hit the ball with greater distance than usual despite only eight balls leaving the park. Arraez will have to continue hitting for a high average to maintain his fantasy value, though nothing to this point suggests regression is forthcoming.