Fantasy baseball draft season is upon us, and we are beginning to have a clearer understanding of how draft boards are shaping up. The crew at Fantasy Pros has compiled a list of players and sorted them based on their average draft position (ADP) across six major fantasy baseball platforms. I want to highlight four pitchers I love this season at their current ADP.
San Diego Padres LHP Blake Snell — 114.0 ADP (SP-35)
Why I love him: For the purposes of this argument, I’m going to ignore the first half of 2023. Snell missed a month and a half with an adductor strain post-lockout, and it took him a few starts to return to form once he returned to the mound, so we’re going to look at a 17-start sample from July 1 through the end of the season.
Snell pitched to a 2.53 ERA during that stretch, allowing one run or fewer in 13 of those 17 starts. His 12.02 K/9 on the year was second best in baseball among pitchers who threw at least 100 innings, behind only Spencer Strider. His xERA, FIP, and xFIP were all lower than his 3.38 ERA last season.
Why I might be wrong: His bad starts are typically disastrous. In weekly matchups, Snell could seriously hurt your chances once in a while, especially when walks get the better of him. However, over the course of the season, expect Snell to provide far more good than bad, and for that reason, I’m in.
Miami Marlins LHP Jesús Luzardo — 154.6 ADP (SP-47)
Why I love him: At one point the top left-handed pitching prospect in baseball, Luzardo has taken a while to live up to that potential, largely due to a frustrating injury history. Though he missed a chunk of 2022 with a forearm strain, he did eclipse the 100-inning mark for the first time in his career, and the results were beautiful. Luzardo posted a 3.32 ERA with an even better 3.12 FIP, set a career high with 10.8 strikeouts per nine innings and held opposing hitters to a .601 OPS. He’s currently being taken as the 47th starting pitcher off the board, which could end up being a massive value pick.
Why I might be wrong: With Luzardo, the question is his health. It may be optimistic to expect him to touch 150 innings pitched in 2023, but should he keep himself on the mound, it looks like he’s turned a corner. Still just 25 years old, there’s no reason to believe the pedigree he once held has disappeared, but he will need to remain healthy and forget about his pre-2022 performance.
Los Angeles Angels LHP Patrick Sandoval — 219.8 ADP (SP-61)
Why I love him: After enjoying a mini breakout in 2021, Sandoval kept the momentum going in 2022 with even better results. And yet, there’s little love for the 26-year-old southpaw in fantasy circles despite the left-hander coming off a year in which he posted a sub-3.00 ERA in nearly 150 innings.
Sandoval strikes out a little more than one batter per nine innings and doesn’t allow much hard contact, thanks to a five-pitch mix that keeps hitters off balance and uncomfortable. He’s currently being taken as the 61st starting pitcher off the board, which feels low for a guy who won’t hurt you in the strikeout department and should provide a very respectable ERA and hopefully a few more wins on an Angels team that spent the offseason working to improve its offense.
Why I might be wrong: Walks remain a bit of an issue with Sandoval and are a big reason why his WHIP inflated to 1.34 last season. Part of that, however, is tied to his .316 opponents’ batting average on balls in play, which suggests he may be due for some positive regression in that department. His stuff isn’t overpowering — he used his slider and changeup more often than his four-seam fastball and sinker last season — and if hitters learn to sit off-speed against Sandoval, they might be able to take advantage.
Houston Astros RHP Hunter Brown — 231.6 ADP (SP-65)
Why I love him: The departure of Justin Verlander and the injury to Lance McCullers Jr. have combined to open up a slot in Houston’s rotation, and it looks like that job is Brown’s to lose. The Astros’ top prospect made his big league debut last season and allowed just two earned runs in 20.1 innings pitched. Brown’s arsenal features three plus pitches, including a mid- to upper-90s fastball and a couple nasty breakers with distinct shape and depth. He’s already begun to shoot up draft boards following McCullers’ injury, so grab him while you can.
Why I might be wrong: The only knock on Brown is his trouble with command at times. At some point, though, you accept a pitcher’s faults due to his upside. The rest of the profile is that of a top-of-the-rotation starter. To find success, he’ll need to first win the rotation job, then avoid allowing too many free passes, like he did in his spring training debut. He has the upside to force Houston into a tough decision upon McCullers’ return.