When drafting your fantasy baseball team, it’s important to understand when a player’s production can be replicated at a lower price. After locking down a few bonafide studs in the early rounds, it’s all about finding value. Be wary of “safe” picks when there are lower-ranked players at the same positions with similar upside.
Here are three hitters I’m fading at their current average draft position:
Baltimore Orioles OF Cedric Mullins — 48.8 ADP (OF-13)
Why I don’t love him: As an Orioles fan, it pains me to start here, but Mullins’ spot on this list has less to do with his abilities and is more a result of outfield depth and similar options available in later rounds. Though his 2022 numbers were solid, they were down across the board from his 2021 performance aside from a slight increase in stolen bases.
His immense struggles against left-handed pitching contributed to a 106 wRC+, just slightly above league average and a significant drop from the 136 wRC+ he posted in 2021. Additionally, his spot as the Orioles’ leadoff hitter limits his RBI upside. (His 2022 total of 64 is a career high.) While taking Mullins in the fifth round wouldn’t necessarily qualify as a reach, I would be just as content grabbing a player like Starling Marte (72.6 ADP) or Corbin Carroll (76.0 ADP) a few rounds later.
Why I might be wrong: Perhaps Mullins returns to the type of player he was in 2021, when he started the All-Star Game as the American League’s center fielder and became the Orioles’ first member of the 30-30 club. Regardless, he will be a good source of stolen bases and should hit his fair share of home runs. With some combination of Gunnar Henderson and Adley Rutschman hitting behind him, he also has tremendous upside in runs scored should he find himself a few more hits and walks.
Kansas City Royals C Salvador Perez — 76.2 ADP (C-5)
Why I don’t love him: Especially in leagues that use on-base percentage instead of, or even in addition to, batting average, I think a player like Perez is being overvalued. As the catcher position continues to get deeper, there are a great deal of backstops being taken after the 10th round who have the upside to replicate the numbers you’d expect to get from Perez.
At 32 years old, Perez still has the ability to hit the ball hard and should provide above-average home run totals, but home runs are replaceable in fantasy, and he isn’t going to give you much value elsewhere. It would be bold to expect him to provide even one stolen base, and his career .301 OBP leaves much to be desired.
Why I might be wrong: Perez can catch fire, as evidenced by his 2021 season in which he shattered his previous career high by hitting 48 home runs and driving in 121. This upside is surely why he’s being drafted as the fifth catcher off the board, but I think those numbers were more of a flash-in-the-pan as opposed to what we should expect from Perez.
Perez was once considered an elite catcher, and it’s possible I’m overlooking what he’s capable of due to my belief that home runs can be acquired pretty easily later on in your draft. As such, that eighth-round pick can be used to grab another high-upside pitcher or multi-category bat instead.
Philadelphia Phillies 1B Rhys Hoskins — 97.6 ADP (1B-8)
Why I don’t love him: Once an exceptional on-base guy despite a low batting average, Hoskins has become more one-dimensional in recent years as his walk rate has dropped by about 30 percent. Similar to Perez, he’s going to provide you with a solid home run total but not much else. His strikeout rate is high and, to put it simply, there is better value with higher upside in later rounds.
Additionally, Hoskins won’t have the luxury of hitting ahead of Bryce Harper for a large chunk of the season, which should hurt his production a bit, though that concerned would be lessened if the Phillies decide to move Kyle Schwarber out of the leadoff spot and into the heart of the order. I’d rather grab an elite first baseman early or wait for someone like C.J. Cron (123.8 ADP), Ryan Mountcastle (160.6 ADP) or Rowdy Tellez (162.0 ADP) if you want a cheaper option without downgrading in the home run category.
Why I might be wrong: Hoskins consistently posts an above-average season-long OPS+ despite high strikeout rates and prolonged slumps. When he’s locked in, he can be as dangerous as anybody. Rostering Hoskins is much easier if you accept that he won’t help your batting average and if you’re able to put up with him when he’s in a funk. The home runs will be there and he’s not at risk of losing playing time to a platoon role. Should Hoskins’ approach improve, resulting in a return to the elite walk rate we once saw, he could be a force.
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