I spent the past week in Sarasota, so I thought I’d give you a few salient takes about the Orioles from our sister city.
1. Adley Rutschman is a rock star.
We all knew he was good. No surprise there. But despite of the fact that he was named Most Valuable Oriole and our Mo Gaba Sportsperson of the Year, you can take one look at him this spring and see he isn’t resting on his laurels.
Rutschman is obviously in great shape, and manager Brandon Hyde will do his part to make sure he stays that way. This is a new era of baseball, and Rutschman’s value is going to be much greater to the team catching 120-130 games rather than milking every ounce out of him in trying to get him to catch more than that.
Those soft right-handed-hitting numbers — one home run, five RBIs and a .174 batting average — won’t happen again. While Rutschman will always be a star batter from the left side, he won’t be a non-entity batting right-handed.
With the new rules in play, Rutschman’s savvy and attentive style of catching is where he really gives the Orioles an edge that few teams will have. He’ll singlehandedly do more than yeoman’s work at keeping runners from straying too far off first base. And he’ll call a share of pitchouts when he can gain an edge throwing out would be base-stealers after an Orioles pitcher has used all his bullets in throwing over to first just two times.
2. Austin Hays and Ryan Mountcastle must produce … and they just might.
Lots of attention will be on the newer kids on the block in Gunnar Henderson and Adley Rutschman. And that’s natural, because they are the hot, shining stars. But for this team’s offense to produce enough to vault the Orioles closer to being a 90-95 win team, the O’s have to get top-tier performances from the two right-handed hitters who need to step up.
In the case of Mountcastle, I think it’s obvious as the noses on our faces that his 2022 was a significant step backward (.250/.305/.423 with 22 home runs). The team has made every effort (think Franchy Cordero, Lewin Díaz, Josh Lester and Ryan O’Hearn) that they intend to get more out of first base by hook or by crook. To date, Mountcastle has gotten the not-so-subtle point. He is batting .391/.391/.826 with eight RBIs, five doubles and one homer this spring.
Hays is batting .368/.455/.842 with three homers and seven RBIs this spring. In the case of Hays, the Orioles didn’t need to bring in any veterans. Hays just looks around at Dylan Beavers, Colton Cowser, Hudson Haskin, Heston Kjerstad and Kyle Stowers. He knows if he wants to stay in orange and black, 2023 is show time for him.
3. The starting rotation will be improved throughout the long season.
I have a tremendous amount of respect for pitching coach Chris Holt. He and his analytics people do as good a job as anyone at stressing the finer points of where the keys to success are located for pitchers. Pitch selection, as it used to be called, is now pitch emphasis. Having two solid, grind-it-out guys at the top of the rotation in Kyle Gibson and Cole Irvin will set the tone with the club knowing the days of the two-, three- and four-inning starts are over.
Let’s say that Gibson and Irvin stay healthy and make 30-plus starts apiece. Don’t be surprised if Hyde gets 45 or more starts of at least six innings out of these two. It’s hard to stress enough how much those short starts have exhausted Hyde’s bullpen in recent years. The next two certain pieces of the rotation, Kyle Bradish and Dean Kremer, will now have two leaders to pace themselves against. Think 155-175 innings for these two.
Now, if the big guy — real name, Grayson Rodriguez — is truly ready for prime time, this team really can contend and hang with the big boys of the American League East. But here’s the rub: I have watched Rodriguez in person three times, and he has struggled after the first three innings in two of them (“Gas Can Night” in Bowie last year and March 12 against a lineup of Sox scrubs in Sarasota).
Am I worried? I wouldn’t call it worry, but after watching this regime baby this big guy — to be fair, the 2020 season was the key cause — I am not certain Rodriguez breaks camp with the team. The innings total figures to be in the 120-125 range in 2023. I will say this: Rodriguez will most likely pitch his best baseball for the O’s after July 1. If the team is contending, I think he’ll be playing a part in it.
Last point on the rotation: If the club is contending and the Birds lose a starter to injury, the team will then be in on acquiring a significant someone to improve the rotation.
4. Hang in there with Gunnar Henderson.
As I got ready to make my way back to Baltimore, Henderson’s spring batting average was below .100, which reminded me of an old story.
I was Rex Barney’s producer for the “Hit & Run Club” back in 1982. Through the first 21 games of the regular season, Cal Ripken Jr. was batting .138. I remember Cal coming to do Rex’s show and practically crying while asking — almost begging — for O’s fans to stick with him. Cal hit .280/.335/.505 with 61 extra-base hits the rest of the way en route to American League Rookie of the Year honors.
Henderson’s 2023 canvas will start fresh in Boston on March 30. I am certainly not predicting he’ll get off to as bad a start as Ripken did, but he may have some bumps along the way in his first full big league season.
5. Heston Kjerstad could be a surprise major league call-up at some point in 2023.
The Orioles’ No. 1 pick from the 2020 draft couldn’t have had a bumpier ride to get from that loftier-than-expected draft spot to where he is now in Baltimore’s pecking order.
Developing myocarditis (inflammation of the heart muscle) cost Kjerstad any chance at playing in 2021. Then he was slowed entering 2022 due to a hamstring injury. After that, he started all the way down at Low-A Delmarva and hit the cover off the ball for 22 games: .463/.551/.650 with two homers, nine doubles and 17 RBIs.
Kjerstad then joined High-A Aberdeen in time to play 43 games. The results weren’t pretty in a pitcher-friendly environment: .233/.312/.362. He did go to the Arizona Fall League and gave the Birds some reason for optimism.
But if there were any thought that he’d still have to shake off some rust in spring training, you can put that to bed. My friend down in Sarasota, Eric Garfield — who knows Orioles prospects better than anyone this side of Matt Blood — tells me Kjerstad was a workout animal this offseason in Sarasota, spending hours, mostly by himself, getting back in line with the speed of the game.
Kjerstad will most likely be reassigned to Orioles minor league camp at Twin Lakes Park soon. But he has opened some eyes this spring with a 12-for-27 performance and an impressive slash line of .444/.464/.889. He has hit three homers while scoring and knocking in eight runs. His one blemish: Eight strikeouts against just one walk.
It’ll be interesting to see where the Orioles start Kjerstad in 2023. Most likely, he’ll be ticketed for at least a two-month stay at Double-A Bowie before advancing to Triple-A Norfolk. Don’t be surprised if GM Mike Elias puts all of his cards on the table and gets Kjerstad primed for an MLB debut in 2023.
All spring statistics are entering play on March 16.
Photo Credit: Colin Murphy/PressBox