When drafting your fantasy baseball team, it’s important to understand when a player’s production can be replicated at a lower price. After locking down a few bonafide studs in the early rounds, it’s all about finding value. This can be especially difficult with pitchers, as there are a seemingly infinite number of measurements and tools available that can be used to predict future performance.
Here are three pitchers I’m fading at their current average draft position.
Toronto Blue Jays RHP Alek Manoah — 56.2 ADP (SP-17)
Why I don’t love him: This one might be more of a gut feeling than anything, but I’ll do my best to justify it. I spent a chunk of the offseason passively trying to trade Manoah in my dynasty league but was unable to find the right deal. He’s a very talented pitcher, as evidenced by his third place Cy Young finish in 2022 as a 24-year-old. His 2.24 ERA trailed only Justin Verlander and Dylan Cease among AL starters, and yet, I enter 2023 a bit down on him.
Perhaps part of it is the change in dimensions at Rogers Centre. The left-center and right-center field walls have been moved in (and raised) which could result in a few additional fly balls finding the seats and should make the stadium at least a shade more hitter-friendly. Maybe it’s the fact that Manoah’s velocity has been down a bit so far in spring training, which could signal an injury or nothing at all. Other potential signs of impending regression are his 3.97 xFIP and his very low .244 opponents’ BABIP in 2022. It also doesn’t help Manoah’s case that his strikeout upside is not quite on the level of most other frontline starting pitchers.
Why I might be wrong: It’s not often we reference major league track record for a player entering his age-25 season, but Manoah has it. For two years now, he has been one of the best young pitchers in baseball. He has a strong, durable frame for a pitcher and has done nothing but post positive results during his time as a professional. He pitches with an intensity that is good for the game. It’s entirely possible that, when we look back on this post six months from now, we’re talking about how Manoah was a steal as the 17th starting pitcher off the board. My dynasty team would be thrilled. Be wary, though, that when you look beyond his surface statistics, his 2.24 ERA will almost surely rise.
Seattle Mariners RHP Logan Gilbert — 106.8 ADP (SP-30)
Why I don’t love him: Like Manoah, Gilbert is a talented, young pitcher who posted an exceptional ERA in 2022 with respectable if unspectacular strikeout totals. Unlike Manoah, Gilbert’s rookie season was a bit rough. It looked like he turned a corner last season, as his 3.20 ERA was significantly down from his 4.68 ERA in 2021. But peripherally, Gilbert was a very similar pitcher.
The biggest improvements he made were a decrease in home runs and a sizable increase in the percentage of runners he was able to strand on the bases. His strikeout rate was slightly lower, his walk rate slightly higher and his xERA nearly a full run higher than his actual mark. The 11th round wouldn’t necessarily be a reach, but I’d much prefer the upside of Blake Snell (112.8 ADP) or Gilbert’s rotation mate, George Kirby (118.6 ADP) a round later.
Why I might be wrong: Certain pitchers have an innate ability to consistently overcome poor predictive statistics and Gilbert may fit that bill. His contact numbers from last season are concerning, but he was still able to post a top-10 ERA in the American League last season among qualified starters. While I don’t expect that to continue, there’s a reason he made two consecutive appearances in the top 40 on MLB Pipeline’s Top 100 Prospects list. Gilbert definitely has the pitching ability to prove capable of outperforming his peripheral statistics.
Chicago White Sox RHP Lucas Giolito — 144.8 ADP (SP-42)
Why I don’t love him: My mind can’t comprehend Lucas Giolito. He was once regarded as one of the best pitching prospects in baseball. His first full season in the big leagues was bad — arguably “worst pitcher in the majors” bad. For the next three years, he was dominant, finishing in the top 11 in American League Cy Young voting each season from 2019-2021.
Then, in 2022, Giolito posted a 4.90 ERA and 1.44 WHIP. His average fastball velocity was down by 1.2 MPH. He gave up harder contact and gave it up more frequently. His strikeout rate went down and his walk rate went up. His whiff rate on his fastball, slider and curveball all dropped substantially. His opponent batting average on all four pitches, including the changeup, skyrocketed.
This is all to say that I have no idea which version of Giolito we’re going to get in 2023 and neither do you. If he can comfortably sit close to 94 mph on his fastball, we may see a better version, as that’s one factor that seems to be a common denominator in his year-by-year performance. Velocity readings this spring have him between 91-94, which is not encouraging enough for me. I’m avoiding Giolito this season, even in the 14th round, due to fear of the potential downside.
Why I might be wrong: I kind of already said it. His 2019-2021 stretch was nothing short of spectacular. If he can regain his form and find that version of himself, the 14th round is a bargain. If you want a numerical approach, Giolito’s .340 opponents’ BABIP last year was painfully unlucky and his 3.66 xFIP was actually better than the previous season. Aside from those numbers, there are too many warning signs for my liking, though I appreciate that it’s hard to ignore the upside that comes with the name.
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