Perhaps you’ve seen that we’ve introduced a new feature at Glenn Clark Radio and PressBox. We call it the Lamar-O-Meter. The concept was quite simple. Every time we got even a speck of information or a rumor or an eyeball emoji tweet, I’d find myself doing some sort of arithmetic in my mind about what that might mean for Lamar Jackson’s chances of remaining with the Baltimore Ravens.
After referencing it enough, we decided it was time for a campy-looking graphic and daily updates no matter the circumstances. The concept is very silly … but the calculus is as real as I can possibly concoct given the difficulty of sorting out the circumstances.
To this point, the meter has indicated that it is 70-75 percent likely that Jackson is the Ravens’ quarterback this season. Given the lack of reported interest from other NFL teams, it’s getting harder to fathom the former NFL MVP will be wearing any other color but purple next season. In fact, a number of Ravens fans have questioned why I haven’t moved the needle even further toward 100 percent.
At the moment, it looks like the Ravens called Jackson’s bluff and he has no hand left to play. So any day now Jackson will come crawling back and try to save face by taking the Ravens’ original offer, right? Perhaps that’s even what he’s going to tell us in his upcoming Frost/Frost interview series.
And yet … I’m not ready to move the meter just yet. In fact, Monday’s reading might actually back down a little bit from 74 percent. Let me cover a couple of things.
The first is that we probably need to acknowledge that Lamar Jackson has been right all along. I know you’re not interested in hearing it, but he is … and he wanted to remind you about it last week.
You see, every time someone has looked to criticize the Ravens for how they’ve treated Jackson during the process, we’ve been quick to point out that they’ve literally offered him the second-highest fully guaranteed amount of money in history — the reported (and presumably now confirmed given Jackson’s tweet) $133 million the Ravens put in their long-term offer to their quarterback. That definitely matters! The Ravens probably don’t deserve to be viewed as “bad guys” in this process!
But, you know, there’s the other thing. We’ve all breathlessly droned on about Jackson’s need for an agent (myself probably a bit less than others) and how his lack of an agent has prevented a deal from getting done. But while we want to give the Ravens credit for the offer they’ve made, we for some reason don’t want to acknowledge that Jackson, without the help of an agent who would be taking a cut of the deal, has literally received an offer of … the second highest guaranteed money in the history of the NFL!
So … ummm … why exactly do we think Russell Wilson is better off with an agent than Jackson is without one?
To be clear, I think there are other reasons why it would be beneficial for Jackson to have an agent. But facts can’t only be relevant when they’re beneficial to our arguments. Jackson has done better than literally ever player in the history of the league who has had an agent (except for Deshaun Watson). He’s right. And he’s right to dunk on us on the internet. For whatever reason, while we all have different opinions, Jackson has cared significantly about operating without an agent … and he has benefitted from the decision.
Which brings me back to the meter. Because while many of us believe there is no better offer coming and that Jackson should probably come back to that offer from the Ravens, perhaps we should recognize that he’s already proven us wrong once and might well be interested in doing it again.
At the moment, it doesn’t look like a more significant offer is coming. The Panthers, Texans, Colts and Falcons are all still in desperate need at the position and all hold top-eight picks in the NFL Draft. They’re expected to select the consensus top four quarterbacks in the draft (some order of Ohio State’s C.J. Stroud, Alabama’s Bryce Young, Kentucky’s Will Levis and Florida’s Anthony Richardson).
So what happens to the Falcons should the Lions, who have been seen as an unlikely suitor for Jackson because of the money they’re paying Jared Goff, decide that a rookie quarterback salary ISN’T a problem for them? Detroit would have the option to move on from Goff after the season if they have any doubts about him at all. So could it make sense for the Lions to steal a quarterback out from underneath Atlanta?
And if so, what do the Falcons do then? Tip their cap and push along to another season of irrelevance with Taylor Heinicke under center? Or do they suddenly decide that while their initial plan was more fiscally responsible, their need at the position is too important to not consider going “all-in” on an offer to Jackson?
So if you’re Jackson and the Ravens have made it quite clear that they’re holding the space for you and not moving on, why wouldn’t you wait until AT LEAST after the draft to see how this all plays out? The Ravens have no Plan B. There are no quarterbacks left on the open market with whom you can even squint and view as a legitimate starter. There won’t be a legitimate option available at the 22nd pick. They’re not pulling their offer to Jackson because they simply don’t have the option to do so.
If that remains on the table, Jackson can wait and find out if someone suddenly gets a little itchy after the draft passes.
“But won’t the Ravens just match whatever offer might be out there even if it happens after the draft, Glenn? I mean, they literally haven’t spent a single penny on an outside free agent. They’re keeping their money and can match even a frontloaded offer to Jackson. Even if Jackson waits and an offer comes, he’s just going to end up staying a Raven anyway.”
Fair! But let’s unpack things a bit. As I pointed out, with Jackson already having been offered the second-most fully guaranteed money EVER, he appears to be looking for more. Should a team get desperate enough to offer something at Watson’s level or beyond, there’s still a question, no matter how much cap space the Ravens can clear still, as to whether they’d fundamentally be willing to match that type of offer. We simply don’t know because the Ravens are hoping (and maybe fully believing) that they won’t have to.
And there’s one more thing. NFLPA executive director DeMaurice Smith came out aggressively late last week about the market for Jackson, directly addressing the concept of collusion. A more charitable consideration of the market would suggest that given what the Ravens have done, we can assume that other teams aren’t bothering to put offers on the table because they believe the offers will just get matched anyway.
If you were Lamar Jackson, would what your response be to either scenario? If you truly believe that teams (including the Ravens) are conspiring against you, I don’t think your response would be, “Well, you guys got one over on me, congratulations, let me go ahead and sign that deal that’s less than what I believe my value should be.” If you believe the Ravens are depressing the market via the nonexclusive tag and that you feel as if the team is essentially holding you hostage, would your response be to … sign a long-term deal with the Ravens?
It is most certainly not the Ravens’ fault that the NFLPA hasn’t been able to break the franchise tag rules (which it so clearly detests) in previous CBA negotiations. They have no obligation to help Jackson, the union or anyone else out by not taking advantage of the system. But that doesn’t mean Jackson has to acquiesce to it either. While we’ve (also breathlessly) suggested that Jackson is a “pawn” in the union’s game, Jackson has absolutely no obligation to fight on its behalf. Plenty of other players have happily accepted deals that weren’t fully guaranteed post-Watson. Jackson has decided he’s in for the fight.
How far he’s willing to go with that is unclear. Could he sit out for the season? Could he demand the Ravens trade him to any team that gives him an offer sheet?
I don’t know. But I know that there’s absolutely no reason to just assume that he’ll do what someone else thinks he should. And until we get any more declarative answers, I don’t see the meter moving to about, say, 80 percent.
Photo Credit: Kenya Allen/PressBox