We’ve come to the end of our pre-draft series of specific players to target and avoid as your league fills its rosters. The biggest issue I’ve come across is how to categorize players. “Undervalued” players could qualify as “breakout” or “bounce-back” candidates. There’s even a player or two I declared as “overvalued” who could have made an appearance on this very list. Predicting future performance is difficult despite all of the resources and numbers available to help with that task.
It’s important to remember that your draft isn’t going to go exactly according to plan, which is why knowing which guys you can take later on to fill similar roles is vital. You’re going to miss out on someone you really wanted and, as a result, you will likely want to reach out of desperation. Knowing which players to reach for is a key to success.
With that in mind, thank you for reading, and I look forward to offering my advice throughout the fantasy baseball season.
Here are two hitters and two pitchers I see as bounce-back candidates in 2023.
Minnesota Twins INF Jorge Polanco
The table above shows 2021 statistics. The player on the top row is Manny Machado. The player on the bottom is Jorge Polanco.
2022 was a different story. Machado finished second in National League MVP voting. Polanco battled a pair of injuries and slashed just .235/.346/.405 in 445 plate appearances. His home run and extra base hit totals dropped by more than 50 percent and he swiped three bags in six attempts.
The bad news: Polanco’s knee tendinitis has continued to affect him into the spring, and he will begin the season on the injured list. This could be a blessing in disguise, as you should be able to draft him a touch later than his current 150.4 ADP and stash him on your IL until he’s ready to go, which we hope is no more than a month into the season.
The good news: When healthy, Polanco is still easily an above-average second baseman. His batted ball profile last season was comparable to what he did in 2021 and better than 2019 when, by the way, he finished 13th in American League MVP voting.
There’s a ton of talent and upside here at an overall weak position. His .248 xBA (+.013) and .451 xSLG (+.046) show that he dealt with a bit of bad luck in 2022 and his .402 xWOBACON was a career best. Returning to the diamond and staying there will be key, but the underlying numbers make Polanco a great candidate to bounce back from a disappointing 2022, results-wise.
The maybe good, maybe bad news: Polanco’s walk rate last season was 14.2 percent. His previous career high was 8.3 percent in 2019. This could be the sign of a smarter hitter or it could mean he was being extra selective due to physical discomfort. Whatever the case might be, I would like to see Polanco return to a more aggressive approach and put more balls in play because when he does that, the results tend to be positive. I don’t tend to endorse a decrease in walk rate but in Polanco’s case, it should help him overall.
Milwaukee Brewers OF Jesse Winker
The 2021 All-Star is back in the NL Central, where he thrived for several years before struggling last season with the Mariners. Milwaukee is no Cincinnati in terms of hitter-friendliness but it’s an upgrade from Seattle. It’s also familiar territory for Winker, whose career OPS in 32 games at American Family Field (formerly Miller Park) is over 1.000.
Winker’s metrics in 2022 were not on par with what we have come to expect from him, but one thing that hasn’t changed is his elite on-base ability. His walk rate is consistently above 10 percent, and his .344 OBP last season was good enough to put him in the upper quartile of hitters with at least 400 plate appearances despite a down year otherwise.
One number that stands out for Winker in 2022 is his lack of doubles. He hit just 15 in 547 plate appearances. That’s absurdly low and feels almost impossible to replicate considering the number of balls he hit into the gaps.
They exist! They happened! And yet, not one made it to the wall. Winker’s only double that wasn’t toward the corners was a 110 MPH EV line drive that landed a few feet into the outfield grass beyond the second baseman, on which Rays CF Kevin Kiermaier was shading Winker toward left-center. Everything else was cut off. This amounts to an extreme case of bad luck and good outfield positioning.
Winker is currently being drafted in the 24th round as the 56th outfielder off the board. It’s hard not to love that value given Winker’s history. He should have plenty of playing time at outfield and designated hitter for the Brew Crew, and I expect that his return to the NL Central will be fruitful.
Milwaukee Brewers RHP Freddy Peralta
I promise I’m not a closeted Brewers fan, though it may seem that way. I included Garrett Mitchell in my breakout candidates piece and just finished hyping up 2023 Jesse Winker. Now here we are with another. I can’t help it. Here’s the case for another Brewer.
Peralta missed a chunk of last season with right shoulder issues and, even when on the mound, struggled to maintain his velocity at times. Yet, he still managed a 3.58 ERA (2.70 xERA, 3.06 FIP) in 78.0 innings pitched. Entering 2023, he appears to be fully healthy and is solidified as the Brewers’ No. 3 starter behind Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff.
“But Ryan, why is he a ‘bounce-back candidate’ if he was already good last year?” It’s simple. Sure, he was good in limited innings. In 2021, however, he was one of the best pitchers in baseball. He struck out more than a third of the batters he faced, excelled at limiting hard contact, was selected to the All-Star Game and had a better expected ERA than Zack Wheeler and Max Scherzer.
Not only do I think Peralta is poised for a huge season, I think he’s an ace on a team that already has two others. As a 15th-round pick this year, should he be able to provide around 150 healthy innings, he’ll be a bargain.
Minnesota Twins RHP Tyler Mahle
Here I go again. I’m not a Twins fan either, but what kind of fantasy analyst would I be if I left off certain players I like because I already included one of their teammates? On we go.
Mahle was traded from hitter-friendly Cincinnati to pitcher-friendly Minnesota at last season’s trade deadline. Unfortunately, we didn’t get to see much of Mahle in his new home, as he was shut down with a shoulder injury after just four starts with his new club. The results weren’t great in the Twin Cities, though that’s likely because he was pitching through some pain.
Before the trade, Mahle’s 4.40 ERA was on track to be his worst since 2019, but his 3.60 FIP would have been a career best. Still just 28 years old, he’s shown flashes of dominance. Between 2020 and 2021, he struck out 270 opposing hitters in 227.2 innings. The strikeout rate dipped a bit last season but still sits comfortably above a batter per inning and his walk rate is acceptable at worst.
Mahle introduced a cutter to his arsenal in 2021 and has been working on refining it, throwing it more often in 2022 despite it being his least effective pitch. Unless your name is Shohei Ohtani, who seemingly invented a dominant sinker midseason last year, these adjustments take time. Hopefully, by Year 3, Mahle has a solid feel for what that pitch can do.
Like Winker, Mahle’s ADP finds him in the 24th round of drafts this year, which could prove to be far too low. I’m intrigued to see what he can do with a clean bill of health in a stadium that’s better suited for pitchers.