Welcome back to “Three Up, Three Down,” a weekly look at who’s hot and who’s not around MLB. The season is three series in at this point, which means most pitchers have a pair of starts under their belts and lineup regulars have upwards of 40 plate appearances. While this is still a small sample, and I’d refrain from making any rash roster decisions quite yet, it’s important to know which guys are helping and hurting their respective teams.
Three Up:
Pittsburgh Pirates OF Bryan Reynolds — The switch-hitting outfielder and 2021 All-Star has been on an absolute tear to open up the 2023 campaign. The Pirates are a surprising 6-3, and Reynolds’ bat is a big reason why. In his first nine games, Reynolds has recorded 15 hits, more than half of which have gone for extra bases, contributing to his NL-leading .919 slugging percentage.
His five home runs and 14 runs batted in are both tied for the most in baseball and he’s added a pair of stolen bases already, which is encouraging for a player whose single-season best is seven. In this small sample, Reynolds also leads the league in barrel percentage per plate appearance and xwOBA (expected weighted on-base average). His walks are down compared to his career numbers, but that’s hardly a concern for someone whose contact numbers have been elite.
Los Angeles Angels DH/RHP Shohei Ohtani — After leading Japan to its third World Baseball Classic title, Shohei Ohtani is back to doing Shohei Ohtani things in Major League Baseball. On the offensive side, he has three home runs already, an impressive .436 on-base percentage and a 201 OPS+ while posting far above league average batted ball numbers and expected stats. On the mound, he has an ERA under 1.00 in his first two starts, with 18 strikeouts in 12 innings pitched.
He has struggled with command to the tune of seven walks, but his history suggests that this should even out over the course of the season. There’s really not much else to say about Ohtani, who is a once-in-a-lifetime talent expected to finish as both a top-10 hitter and pitcher on a yearly basis. If you’re a first-time Ohtani owner, your only concern should be making sure he’s active in a pitcher slot for each of his turns through the Angels’ rotation and a hitting slot otherwise.
Tampa Bay Rays LHP Jeffrey Springs and RHP Drew Rasmussen — A two-for-one deal! The Rays are off to one of the most dominant starts to a season in MLB histoy, sweeping each of their first three series with a run differential of +57. Yes, they have played bad teams, but the results have been nothing short of spectacular. While just about their entire roster has been stellar, Springs and Rasmussen have been the crown jewels thus far.
The duo has combined for 26 scoreless innings, four quality starts and 34 strikeouts (Springs 19, Rasmussen 15) in 13 innings pitched apiece. Just 10 batters have reached base safely, as each pitcher has surrendered just three hits, with Springs adding four walks. These two have been quietly great since 2021 and appear to be in a position to continue that trajectory on their way to becoming household names for even the casual fan.
Three Down:
Cleveland Guardians 1B Josh Bell — I have long been a believer in Bell, but his start to the 2023 season has been a continuation of the poor production we began seeing from him following his trade to the San Diego Padres last August. Bell has just three hits, all singles, in 35 at-bats to open the season, and the majority of his hard-hit balls have been on the ground. He hasn’t found a barrel yet and his whiff rate is comparable to the number he posted in 2020, his worst full season (albeit shortened).
Bell has long been known as a streaky hitter, though this is beginning to look like it might be the new norm for the former All-Star as opposed to just another prolonged slump. There is good news, however — he still draws walks at an exceptional rate, with eight on the season so far, bringing his on-base percentage up to .250 despite a .086 batting average.
Detroit Tigers SS Javier Baez — Since signing a six-year, $140 million contract with the Tigers in November 2021, Baez has done nothing but disappoint with his bat. His .671 OPS in 2022 was below league average and his home run total of 17 was a far cry from what we had come to expect from the 2018 NL MVP runner-up. His start to the new campaign has been abysmal.
Like Bell, Baez has yet to record an extra-base hit (four singles) or a barrel in 36 plate appearances. Unlike Bell, there’s no good news in the walk department. The free-swinging Baez has never amassed greater than 30 walks in a season, doing so way back in 2017. To find success at the plate, he has to be able to do so by hitting the ball hard, which he has not done in his tenure in Detroit. He might be a lost cause at this point.
Milwaukee Brewers RHP Corbin Burnes — The popular NL Cy Young pick has posted a sub-3.00 ERA with elite strikeout totals each of the past three years. One would think that a 28-year-old with his track record would have no problem picking up where he left off, but that has not been the case so far with Burnes. Through two starts, Burnes has yet to pitch into the sixth inning, surrendering 10 earned runs in 9.1 innings pitched.
Typically, even in his rougher outings, Burnes will help you in the strikeout department, but he struck out just three batters in each of his first two outings while giving up three and two free passes, respectively. While it hasn’t been an ideal start for Burnes, his numbers are a bit inflated by a pair of two-run home runs surrendered to Pete Alonso on good pitches below the zone. It’s far too early to hit the panic button, but Burnes’ poor March/April is worth monitoring. He will look to bounce back on April 11 against the Diamondbacks, who are tied for second in the NL in runs scored.
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