The NFL Draft is scheduled to begin on April 27, and there will be plenty of discussion leading up to draft night. Which quarterback will be the first off the board? When will the first skill-position player get drafted? How far will Jalen Carter fall? We have a better idea of what holes teams will try to fill in the draft with free agency having come and gone.
We’ve already had one huge trade as the Carolina Panthers have moved up from No. 9 to the top pick in the draft. All expectations are the Panthers made the move to get their franchise quarterback. I would expect more movement at the top, as many expect the Arizona Cardinals to trade back as well. But for the sake of this exercise, there will be no trades.
The Miami Dolphins forfeited their first-round pick following the investigation into tampering with Tom Brady and Sean Payton. They would have had the 21st pick.
The Dolphins’ infraction moves the Baltimore Ravens up to the 22nd overall pick, the first of five picks in the 2023 NFL Draft. The Ravens will be without their second- and fifth-round selections as a result of the Roquan Smith trade.
Here is my third mock draft with some analysis to follow.
No. 1: Carolina Panthers via Chicago Bears (3-14)
Team Needs: QB, RB, TE, EDGE
Selection: Bryce Young, QB, Alabama
No. 2: Houston Texans (3-13-1)
Team Needs: Everything
Selection: Will Levis, QB, Kentucky
No. 3: Arizona Cardinals (4-13)
Team Needs: EDGE, CB, OL, LB
Selection: Will Anderson Jr., EDGE, Alabama
No. 4: Indianapolis Colts (4-12-1)
Team Needs: QB, OL, CB, EDGE
Selection: C.J. Stroud, QB, Ohio State
No. 5: Seattle Seahawks — via Denver Broncos (5-12)
Team Needs: IOL, DL, S, QB
Selection: Tyree Wilson, EDGE, Texas Tech
No. 6: Detroit Lions — via Los Angeles Rams (5-12)
Team Needs: CB, LB, TE, QB
Selection: Jalen Carter, DL, Georgia
No. 7: Las Vegas Raiders (6-11)
Team Needs: OL, DB, LB
Selection: Devon Witherspoon, CB, Illinois
No. 8: Atlanta Falcons (7-10)
Team Needs: EDGE, DB, WR, QB
Selection: Anthony Richardson, QB, Florida
No. 9: Chicago Bears via Carolina Panthers (7-10)
Team Needs: OT, EDGE, IOL, CB
Selection: Paris Johnson Jr., OT, Ohio State
No. 10: Philadelphia Eagles — via New Orleans Saints (7-10)
Team Needs: LB, RB, S
Selection: Bijan Robinson, RB, Texas
No. 11: Tennessee Titans (7-10)
Team Needs: OT, EDGE, WR, LB
Selection: Peter Skoronski, OL, Northwestern
No. 12: Houston Texans – via Cleveland Browns (7-10)
Team Needs: Everything
Selection: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Ohio State
No. 13: Green Bay Packers — via New York Jets (7-10)
Team Needs: OT, LB, TE
Selection: Lukas Van Ness, EDGE, Iowa
No. 14: New England Patriots (8-9)
Team Needs: WR, OT, EDGE, DB
Selection: Brian Branch, S, Alabama
No. 15: New York Jets — via Green Bay Packers (8-9)
Team Needs: WR, EDGE, TE, LB
Selection: Broderick Jones, OT, Georgia
No. 16: Washington Commanders (8-8-1)
Team Needs: QB, OL, CB, LB
Selection: Christian Gonzalez, CB, Oregon
No. 17: Pittsburgh Steelers (9-8)
Team Needs: OT, CB, LB, EDGE
Selection: Joey Porter Jr., CB, Penn State
No. 18: Detroit Lions (9-8)
Team Needs: CB, LB, TE, QB
Selection: Michael Mayer, TE, Notre Dame
No. 19: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-9)
Team Needs: QB, OL, DB, TE
Selection: Hendon Hooker, QB, Tennessee
No. 20: Seattle Seahawks (9-8)
Team Needs: IOL, DL, S, QB
Selection: Deonte Banks, CB, Maryland
No. 21: Los Angeles Chargers (10-7)
Team Needs: IOL, LB, DL, WR
Selection: Bryan Bresee, DL, Clemson
No. 22: Baltimore Ravens (10-7)
Team Needs: EDGE, CB, WR, OL
Selection: Emmanuel Forbes, CB, Mississippi State
No. 23: Minnesota Vikings (13-4)
Team Needs: EDGE, WR, CB, LB
Selection: Quentin Johnston, WR, TCU
No. 24: Jacksonville Jaguars (9-8)
Team Needs: OL, CB, EDGE, DT
Selection: Nolan Smith, EDGE, Georgia
No. 25: New York Giants (9-7-1)
Team Needs: WR, CB, IOL, LB
Selection: Zay Flowers, WR, Boston College
No. 26: Dallas Cowboys (12-5)
Team Needs: WR, DL, LB, TE
Selection: Dalton Kincaid, TE, Utah
No. 27: Buffalo Bills (13-3)
Team Needs: IOL, S, TE, DL
Selection: O’Cyrus Torrence, OL, Florida
No. 28: Cincinnati Bengals (12-4)
Team Needs: CB, IOL, S, TE
Selection: Darnell Wright, OT, Tennessee
No. 29: New Orleans Saints — via San Francisco 49ers (13-4)
Team Needs: CB, IOL, DL
Selection: Calijah Kancey, DL, Pittsburgh
No. 30: Philadelphia Eagles (14-3)
Team Needs: LB, RB, S
Selection: Myles Murphy, DE, Clemson
No. 31: Kansas City Chiefs (14-3)
Team Needs: OT, WR, EDGE, S
Selection: Jordan Addison, WR, USC
Notes:
Bryce Young seems locked in as the No. 1 pick, but bookmakers are trending toward Will Levis being the favorite to be the second pick. I am not buying the smoke that the Texans will not take a quarterback with the second pick. It’s too glaring a need to pass up.
Hendon Hooker makes it into the first round, but I have him going a little higher than most in the mock draft community. Most have him sitting a year behind Geno Smith in Seattle or Kirk Cousins in Minnesota. The Buccaneers are also in the market for a quarterback and can afford to wait on Hooker to return from injury with Baker Mayfield in the fold.
Biggest Reach: Peter Skoronski to Titans
The Titans panic with all four quarterbacks going off the board in the top 10. Skoronski is talented, but I’m never a fan of taking a guard inside the top 20.
Best Bargain: Christian Gonzalez to Commanders
It wasn’t long ago that Gonzalez was considered a lock to be selected in the top 10 picks, but he manages to fall into Washington’s lap. The Commanders need a strong cornerback in a division featuring CeeDee Lamb, Brandin Cooks, DeVonta Smith and A.J. Brown.
Ideal Fit: C.J. Stroud to Colts
I love this pairing for both sides. Stroud will join Shane Steichen in Indy, who just turned Jalen Hurts into an MVP-caliber player. Stroud doesn’t use his legs like the Eagles QB, but he can make all the throws.
Photo Credit: Courtesy of Mississippi State Athletics