As the Orioles come off a successful 6-4 road trip, their longest but not toughest of the year, the most pertinent question for an aroused but nervous fan base is a simple one:
Is a .500 record the rest of the way acceptable?
For manager Brandon Hyde and his band of birds, the answer is a resounding “NO,” as it should be. It’s probably not much different for the part of the fan base that looks at last year’s 83-79 record as the springboard to a playoff position.
However, and this shouldn’t be interpreted as a “sky is falling” warning though it probably will be, the reality of the situation is this: If the Orioles play .500 the rest of the way to finish 86-76, it will represent a second straight dramatic leap and keep them in the playoff chatter until the very end. Another huge step in the “rebuild.”
Before the season started, who among us thought 86 was a long reach? Certainly all of the prickly prognosticators — and most likely only the most optimistic of an anxious fan base.
With a strong memory of the year after the “Why Not?” team of 1989, there was an almost eerie sense that this year’s team could be better — but not equal to the one of a year ago. It was the cautionary message I had throughout spring training. That feeling abated somewhat with 21 wins in the first 31 games — and especially after watching the just-concluded, mesmerizing three-game series against the Atlanta Braves, which ended on a down note but was two pitches away from being an overwhelming success that would have shocked the baseball world.
But that doesn’t hide the reality of what lies ahead for this feisty bunch, and what I’m preaching here is this: A .500 record the rest of the way would not be a regression. And trust me on this, I’m not preaching Negative Nelly’s parody here, I think the core in place will produce the most exciting team we’ve seen around here in a long time — and this very well might be the year it begins to show results.
You might not be able to clinch a division title in the first 40 games (though the 35-5 Tigers did in ’84), but one has to believe the Tampa Bay Rays, who are in town for the next three games, are close to doing just that at 28-7.
The other four American League East teams are playing over .500, all on a pace to win more than 83 games (the O’s current pace would produce 104!). Inter-division play will begin to level the field and sort out standings in all six MLB divisions, but it figures to be a crapshoot.
Here’s an over/under challenge for those short-term investment sites you see advertised here, there and everywhere: What’s the number of AL East teams (other than the Rays) that play better than .500 the rest of this year?
I’d put that number at two — and have no idea whether to go over or under, or which teams go which way. Way beyond my pay grade — but here’s a prediction: Any AL East team playing over .500 the rest of the way will make the playoffs.
The moral of this story: Don’t snooze .500.
Jim Henneman can be reached at JimH@pressboxonline.com
Photo Credit: Kenya Allen/PressBox