So, you’re a baseball fan and you like following the minor leagues. You want to buy baseball cards for minor league players and take a chance that they make the majors and the cards go up in value, right?
I get a version of this question a lot: “Which prospect cards should I buy that will go up in value?” I thought instead of answering each person individually, I would put together sort of a cheat sheet to decide if a player might be worth investing in.
This is not a recommendation to buy specific players, nor is it a recommendation that prospect cards will always appreciate in value. However, it’s more of a system or thought process that I personally use when I look at minor league players to make these decisions. This is not the only system by any means. You will develop your own throughout time like I did.
There are certain things that are hard and fast rules for me. If you disagree, you are welcome to your opinion. However, I do not invest in or recommend cards for pitchers and catchers. Pitchers just carry to much risk for me to absorb. Catchers tend to not hold value for a variety of reasons, so there’s no reason to take a gamble on backstops. I do, however, like athletic, up-the-middle players with versatility. The most important tool for me, and it’s not really close, is the hit tool.
So, how do I evaluate the hit tool in minor league players? One thing to always look at is on-base percentage and strikeout-to-walk ratios. These give you a rough idea about a player’s approach at the plate, which is hopefully one less thing that has to be addressed as the player advances through a minor league system.
The second thing you want is a player who makes consistent, hard contact. Check on barrel rates, batting average on balls in play and exit velocities. My personal feeling is that a player who can make consistent, hard contact and has patience at the plate already has a leg up on most young players. But those are not the only tools I use to evaluate minor league players.
First of all, there is no substitute for seeing players in person. If you don’t know what you’re looking for, sometimes in a minor league game a player just stands out as bigger, stronger or faster. This will give you a true feeling of what a player looks like and how they compare to their peers. I also like to look at how old a player is for the league they are playing in. If a player is in his early 20s at Triple-A, examine his production through a different lens than a player in his early 20s at Low-A or High-A. Keep this in mind when considering a player’s future projection.
I also look at a player’s injury history. This is the main reason I avoid pitchers, because their recovery time after injuries is a variable I choose to stay away from. However, a player who has remained healthy throughout his amateur career is something I like to see for developmental purposes, both in understanding his ability to stay healthy and how much development time he had prior to being drafted or signed.
Do I use rankings and prospect lists? It would be disingenuous to say that I ignore the prospect lists, but I always feel more of a sense of accomplishment if I can identify a young player before he cracks a top-100 list from a national publication. If I am looking into buying cards, the goal is to buy as cheap as possible and hope the player graduates to a higher level and on to one of those top-100 lists, which increases card value significantly.
If the goal is to make a profit, typically value is maximized when the player is at his highest ranking on a top-100 list or at the time of his major league debut. Also, a young player or recently drafted player who starts off hot typically sees rising prices that could be a long-term trend or just a bubble depending on his continued production.
All of this being said, please only buy what you enjoy and can afford. Many people don’t believe in the risk of prospects when buying cards. I do enjoy it, risk and everything! Keep collecting.
Have you had cards since you were a kid and now you want to sell them? Please email any questions to Danny@SportsBalt.com or visit SportsBalt.com
Originally published April 19, 2023