BetMaryland.com sports betting analyst Bill Ordine chatted with PressBox about the NFL futures bets that have caught his eye, including an intriguing one involving the Ravens.
This has been edited for content and clarity.
PressBox: When is the best time to start looking at win totals for NFL teams?
Bill Ordine: I think that once free agency and the draft is over, and of course the schedule comes out, right after all of those events and whatever contract problems are unsettled, when all of that comes together — and that’s where we are [entering the summer] — I think is the time to look seriously at over-unders. Those can really only be affected by the unfortunate circumstances of calamitous injuries, and this is the NFL. We can think back to people like Teddy Bridgewater getting hurt in practice in non-contact circumstances. Those things can strike at any time. But right now, all things being relatively calm between now and [Week 1], I think you can look at over-unders seriously and you can look at the odds for winning the Super Bowl, winning conferences, winning divisions I think with most of the information that you’re going to need.
PB: Are there any win totals that have caught your eye at this point?
BO: I’ll mention one on the downside of a team that is being ranked pretty highly. They’re in the top five. If you look at the top five of the league now, it’s naturally the two Super Bowl participants — Kansas City and Philadelphia — along with Buffalo and Cincinnati, which are both in the AFC. And San Francisco is being clustered with the top five teams. The thing that would concern me about San Francisco [at 10.5 wins] is the quarterback situation. That is a huge question mark in San Francisco. The other four teams are pretty solid at quarterback. You’re looking at Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hurts, Josh Allen and Joe Burrow. San Francisco is a little thin right there, as we saw in the playoff game. If there were a team I was fading, I would fade San Francisco even though they’ve got this spectacular defense and they’ve got plenty of personnel other than the quarterback.
PB: Are there any futures bets you like in particular for Super Bowl, conference and division winners?
BO: There are certain division and conference circumstances that jumped out at me. One is the Los Angeles Chargers and the other is one of my old favorites, which is the Minnesota Vikings. Again, I tend to be quarterback-oriented but so is the NFL. I think in those circumstances, both the Chargers and the Vikings have quarterbacks who can get their teams in position to win. People will say, “That Kirk Cousins, he never gets there.” Well, that’s true. He hasn’t won a Super Bowl, but he does win plenty of games. I like the Vikings now in the context of their division, which no longer has Aaron Rodgers in it. … I think the Chargers on their own can match up OK with Kansas City. Obviously, Kansas City is a superior team in terms of roster. I tend to be quarterback-oriented. When you’ve got a gunslinger like Justin Herbert, you can beat anybody on any day. If Patrick Mahomes is ever out for any period of time, that certainly enhances the Chargers.
PB: Does any team stand out as a potential lottery ticket?
BO: Last year was the Jets. This year’s lottery ticket for me is the Tennessee Titans. I’ve seen them at 10,000-1 to win the Super Bowl and 6,000-1 to win the conference. It’s not a very strong roster. They’ve got an OK quarterback. They’ve got a running back who has a lot of mileage on him. But they are also in a very winnable division. Jacksonville is all about the young quarterback, Trevor Lawrence, who looked really good last year. We saw him win that playoff game. But as I said, I see Tennessee as a lottery ticket, not as a particularly sure bet or anything like that. If the leader in that division falters, and the leader in that division is depending on one guy primarily, then I like Tennessee’s chances [to win the AFC South at +380].
PB: The Ravens’ over-under win total is 10.5. They are +240 to win the AFC North. They are also 9.5-point favorites against the Texans in Week 1. Do any of those stand out to you?
BO: I’ve got to tell you, I like them to cover the spread in Week 1. That is predicated as much on Houston as it is on Baltimore. Houston just looks terrible on paper. I do like the Ravens. Kind of interesting is Lamar Jackson’s over-under on rushing yards [on Caesars Sportsbook]. The one that I got was 850.5, and believe it or not, he’s not even the highest over-under for a quarterback. It is Justin Fields. J.K. Dobbins is 875.5. I don’t know, with the obvious change in offensive philosophy and the offseason moves, that either one of those guys is going to wind up hitting those numbers, particularly if what we are seeing implied by the over-unders is that Jackson and Dobbins are going to evenly split rushing yardage this year. Maybe they will, maybe they won’t, but the oddsmakers are telling us that those two guys are going to wind up splitting yardage again. Perhaps the under is the number to take there on Lamar Jackson rushing. I think if J.K. Dobbins does rush for 875 or something in that neighborhood then Jackson can’t possibly be running for 850.
PB: Should bettors hold off on making futures bets once training camp starts due to the injuries that inevitably crop up?
BO: I would certainly wait until you get through training camp, once these guys start beating on each other. But as I said when I mentioned Bridgewater, these things can happen in practice. You can get your star receiver going up for a pass with a backup defensive back and they get their feet tangled and all of the sudden that star wide receiver twists a knee. It’s good to wait through training camp and see where you stand there, because the odds aren’t going to change really that much until there are those season-changing injuries. You want to let those play out before you go out there and place a wager.
Photo Credit: Kenya Allen/PressBox
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