What a difference five days make.
The close to the “first half” of the season couldn’t have been much better for the Orioles. Their five-game road winning streak brought them to 54-35 on the season and within two games of the Rays at the top of the AL East. Since they’re tied with Tampa Bay in the loss column and have a winning record against the Rays so far this season, the Orioles control their own destiny to win the division. (Obviously it’s entirely too early for that to really be relevant but we’re having fun so shut up, David.)
Since it’s the fun thing to do, let’s hand out some first-half superlatives.
Team MVP: Félix Bautista
This is the easiest one. A number of players have carried this team for various stretches (even Jorge Mateo and Ryan Mountcastle early in the year!), but none have been as consistent as “The Mountain,” whose 104.8 Cy Young Predictor score is second to only Shane McClanahan in ESPN’s American League rankings. He’s on pace to break Aroldis Chapman’s single-season record 17.667 K/9 rate among relievers (2014).
Best Moment: Cedric Mullins Hits For The Cycle On First Night Of The Bird Bath
Mullins was the Team MVP until he got hurt and authored the best moment of the year when his three-run homer against the Pirates May 12 not only clinched a cycle but essentially clinched a win in what had been a one-run game. The weather was a bit warmer, there was palpable excitement for our new civic hero “Mr. Splash” and Camden Yards was whipped into an absolute frenzy.
Biggest Surprise: Aaron Hicks and Ryan O’Hearn
I know what you’re thinking. “Glenn, what do you mean by surprise? I totally had Aaron Hicks and Ryan O’Hearn leading the Orioles in OPS in my preseason predictions!” When Mountcastle went into a tailspin, O’Hearn’s ascension (including a game-tying three run homer in Toronto, the runner-up for best moment) made up for it. That was surprising. But the renaissance of Aaron Hicks (which came at the exact moment Mullins got hurt), that … floored me like I was Val Woodburn.
Biggest Disappointment: Adam Frazier’s Defense
It would be easy to say Mateo here, but he didn’t get paid $8 million this offseason. Adam Frazier’s sub-.300 on-base percentage is mitigated a bit by his uncanny knack for clutch hits. His defense however? Woof. There are only three players in all of baseball with a worse OAA (outs above average) than his minus-10. His 10 home runs will almost certainly be enough to keep his roster spot, but with that defense and a crowded outfield, it’s hard to imagine where his at-bats come from.
Unsung Hero: Kyle Bradish
Why aren’t we talking about Kyle Bradish more? Tyler Wells might have been the best starter of the first half, but it’s actually pretty close. Bradish’s 3.32 ERA and 1.18 WHIP have more than backed up his strong second half from last season. The only thing that’s left is for him to work deeper into games, but we’re already starting to see it. He’s gone six or more innings in four of his last five starts.
Biggest Reason For Concern: The Innings Issue
Orioles relievers have pitched 323.1 collective innings this season, 12th-most in all of baseball. That statistic alone isn’t particularly overwhelming, particularly when the bullpen’s collective 3.70 ERA is tied for sixth in baseball. But the wear is real, particularly considering the team appears to only trust three or four relievers (Bautista, Yennier Cano, Danny Coulombe and sometimes Mike Baumann) in high-leverage situations. The team needs more innings from starters, but it also needs another reliable reliever or two to lessen the burden on the top guys.
Second-Half X-Factor: Grayson Rodriguez and John Means
The obvious choice here is “whoever they trade for.” But at the moment, that’s more or less magic beans. Rodriguez was pulled after just three innings of one-hit, shutout work (there were unfortunately three walks too) against Durham July 9. It would seem as though a return to the bigs is imminent. But in what capacity? Rodriguez has already pitched 86.2 innings this season after just 75.2 last year and a career-high 103 in 2021. The team clearly wants to keep developing him as a starter, but with an innings limit looming, perhaps he could help solve the innings issue via the bullpen. And a late-season Means return could prove to be as significant as anything anyone does at the deadline.
Photo Credits: Kenya Allen and Colin Murphy/PressBox