The key to any fantasy football season is preparation. Whether you have the first overall pick or the last of the first round, having a sense of who will be available in each round is key.
I’ll be doing mock drafts throughout the summer while offering scenarios and feedback for each position. The point of these mocks is to prepare for the unexpected.
The mock drafts will assume that 12 teams are in the league with the following roster construction: quarterback, two running backs, two wide receivers, tight end, a flex (running back, wide receiver or tight end), defense, kicker and seven bench spots. It is a 16-round snake draft in a half-point-per-reception (half-PPR) league.
If you read my 2023 draft guide, you know I’m not a fan of drafting kickers and defense if it’s not necessary. I’d rather add a few running backs who could end up being a starter in the event of an injury. However, for the sake of this exercise, I’ll round out each draft by doing so. Remember, do not draft either before your final two picks!
Most important of all, be creative with your mock drafts. Don’t take the same players in every mock. Your favorite sleeper is probably someone else’s, too.
The draft is just the start of the season. If drafting early, work the waiver wire to your advantage if any major injuries arise. If you’re a fantasy nerd like me, have notifications on of your favorite NFL insider for breaking news around the league. But the draft is where you build the foundation of your roster, and the goal is to have as deep a roster as possible.
This is the second of many as we move onto the No. 2 pick. (See also: No. 1 pick).
We’ll mix in 10 and 16-team drafts at some point, as well as a Superflex and non-PPR draft mock.
Let’s get started with the second mock draft of the 2023 season.
Here is my roster:
Round 1, Pick 2: Justin Jefferson, WR, Minnesota Vikings
Round 2, Pick 11: Chris Olave, WR, New Orleans Saints
Round 3, Pick 2: Joe Mixon, RB, Cincinnati Bengals
Round 4, Pick 11: James Conner, RB, Arizona Cardinals
Round 5, Pick 2: Rachaad White, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Round 6, Pick 11: Dallas Goedert, TE, Philadelphia Eagles
Round 7, Pick 2: Brandon Aiyuk, WR, San Francisco 49ers
Round 8, Pick 11: Antonio Gibson, RB, Washington Commanders
Round 9, Pick 2: Deshaun Watson, QB, Cleveland Browns
Round 10, Pick 11: Jeff Wilson Jr., RB, Miami Dolphins
Round 11, Pick 2: Jakobi Meyers, WR, Las Vegas Raiders
Round 12, Pick 11: DJ Chark, WR, Carolina Panthers
Round 13, Pick 2: Jaylen Warren, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers
Round 14, Pick 11: Kareem Hunt, RB, Free Agent
Round 15, Pick 2: Jason Sanders, K, Miami Dolphins
Round 16, Pick 11: Pittsburgh Steelers D/ST
Observations:
I went with a running back in my first mock, so let’s take the best receiver in football in this one. As noted in the previous draft, I have no issues taking Christian McCaffrey, Austin Ekeler or Justin Jefferson with the first pick. Jefferson was first or second at the position in snaps, targets, receptions and receiving yards, landing him at the top of many draft boards.
Remember that the point of these mock drafts is to see how different scenarios play out. Jaylen Waddle and Najee Harris were my second- and third-round picks in my previous draft, and both were available again. Let’s change it up in this one with Chris Olave and Joe Mixon as my next two choices.
Olave finished with 1,042 receiving yards in his rookie season with the combination of Andy Dalton, Jameis Winston and Taysom Hill at quarterback. He gets an upgrade with Derek Carr at the helm a year removed from a 27 percent target share. With Jefferson as my top pick, I have a strong duo of receivers to build around.
Mixon in the third round is one of my favorite targets. He’s the clear three-down back with Samaje Perine now in Denver and is coming off a season in which he averaged 19.5 touches per game and a career-high 60 receptions. Most players would be satisfied with nine scores in a season, but the majority of them came in a five-touchdown performance against the Panthers. Mixon should have no problem flirting with those numbers again as his 28 carries inside the 10 were second most in the NFL.
My next two selections are a duo of three-down backs on teams that should disappoint. James Conner saw almost all the playing time for the Cardinals down the stretch with more than 90 percent of the snaps in five games from Week 10 to Week 16. Arizona might be the worst team in the NFL this season, but volume is king in fantasy football and the Cardinals did not bring in another running back to compete with Conner so the job is all his.
Tampa Bay not only moved on from the G.O.A.T. Tom Brady, but “Playoff Lenny” Leonard Fournette is out the door as well. Rachaad White began siphoning touches away from Fournette midway through the 2022 season and saw more snaps in the Bucs’ playoff loss to the Dallas Cowboys. The offensive line was dreadful last season, making it difficult for both backs to get traction on the ground, but the duo combined for 123 receptions. It’s no secret that Brady loved to check it down to his ball-carriers so it’s hard to imagine another 141 targets, but if White sees 80 on top of his lead-back duties, he’s a steal in the fifth round.
I like to group my players into different tiers, and Dallas Goedert finishes in the third tier of tight ends. Travis Kelce is the clear No. 1, followed by Mark Andrews and T.J. Hockenson as my second group. Goedert has finished as a TE1 in four consecutive seasons and leads the position in yards per target the last two years. He’s third in the pecking order behind A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, but Goedert is one of the last tight ends you can feel comfortable starting each week.
My next two choices continue to beef up my roster with upside. Brandon Aiyuk is criminally underrated after setting career-high marks in targets, receptions, yardage and touchdowns, but is being drafted four rounds later than his teammate Deebo Samuel. Make it make sense.
Antonio Gibson is a carryover from my previous mock and one of my favorite targets in the middle rounds. Gibson was the lead back his first two seasons and Eric Bieniemy is the perfect play caller for his skill set. Jerrick McKinnon finished as a RB2 last year with his pass-catching skills, a role Gibson should assume in Washington.
I gambled waiting this long for a quarterback and settled for one of my final QB1 options in Deshaun Watson. He was evidently rusty in his return to action last year, but a full offseason behind him and a year removed from the off-field saga should see Watson return to the form we saw in his time in Houston. Every year we see a team go from worst to first, and the Browns are one of my favorite picks to make that happen. That only happens if Watson gets back to his MVP-caliber play.
Jeff Wilson is someone I’m keeping an eye on as training camp begins. If Dalvin Cook (or another running back) ultimately ends up in Miami, he’s just a handcuff. But if the roster remains as stands, Wilson is the preferred Dolphins back to own.
Jakobi Meyers is the latest former Patriot to join the Raiders and takes on the infamous slot role in that offense. Someone has to catch passes for the Panthers and DJ Chark is the leading candidate to do so. Jaylen Warren is another player I had in my previous mock who I really like as a handcuff. The point of these late picks is upside, so why not take Kareem Hunt with my final pick? Unless he re-signs in Cleveland, Hunt is likely to be the RB1 wherever he ends up.
What do you think of this roster? Let’s discuss on Twitter @JoeSerp.
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Photo Credit: Kenya Allen/PressBox