What are the best ways to bet on the NFL throughout the course of the regular season? 105.7 The Fan’s Jeremy Conn recently broke it down with PressBox.
This has been edited for content and clarity.
PressBox: Should bettors wait until after training camp to dig into futures bets because of injuries?
Jeremy Conn: No, because sometimes you can find value in it. In a perfect world you would like to, but guys still get hurt after training camp, too. … I think there are a lot of things that you can really look at in the future as far as win totals. I think you might get an advantage [in the summer]. I’d be careful on some of the chalky plays. We’ve seen that blow up in years past. Like this year, everybody’s on the Lions, it feels like. I look at a team like that, and yeah, I think there’s reason to be optimistic about them. I just don’t know if I’m ready to bet them to win the division, especially with a team that won 14 games in that division last year with the Vikings. I do think you can bet stuff early and bet futures. I don’t worry about training camp, but it does suck if you place a wager and you lose a guy during training camp or during a preseason game that doesn’t matter.
PB: What are your favorite futures bets to place during training camp?
JC: For me personally, I like to look at individuals and bet their yardage marks. For example, if I gave you Justin Jefferson and I said, “OK, I’m going to look at his totals week in and week out, see where his numbers are and see if there’s value there,” in actuality that guy can go over the total any time, any given game. But for a season-long thing, yeah, you might look at some of that stuff and you know his number’s going to be high, but I’ll try to look at players like Garrett Wilson. I think Garrett Wilson’s going to be a top-five receiver this year, so I’d have no problem today looking at him and betting his over in yardage because I think he’s going to be a top-five guy with Aaron Rodgers now. Those are my favorites. I love doing rushing yards, receiving yards and even quarterback passing yards. And you can look at MVP, but realistically, if you’re not betting a quarterback for MVP, I think you’re probably doing it wrong.
PB: Is there a team you’re higher on than most that you would at least encourage bettors to take a look at for futures bets?
JC: I am bigger on the Jets than some. It worries me, though, with “Hard Knocks” because I think they’re going to become a team that everybody jumps on. I would lean Vikings a little bit more in that NFC North. That’s the team that I’m probably going to have a couple of bucks on here and there just because I think there’s inherent value in it. … I like some of the win totals. I think the Atlanta Falcons are an interesting team. I would not have a problem taking a flier on them to win the NFC South. I think most people would jump on New Orleans and that’s probably the right side to be on, but I definitely think it’s worth taking a flier on another team, like Atlanta, that’s going to be plus money.
PB: How early is too early to start betting on Week 1 lines?
JC: There are times you can find value. For example, I know a lot of the people in the industry are on the Packers Week 1 against the Bears, thinking it doesn’t make any sense for the Bears to be giving anyone three points. I think you can jump on stuff [in the summer] if you really see something you like, but for me personally I like to wait. I like to see the line movement, see which way the money’s coming in. Ultimately, I don’t think it’s crazy. During the season when the lines come out and you feel like there’s value on one side or the other, I’ve got no problem betting on something at the beginning of the week. But right now, I don’t bet on anything this early personally. But I might start placing some wagers probably about two weeks out or so.
PB: What’s the best way to digest the board on a given Sunday without being overwhelmed?
JC: Especially Week 1 and Week 2, we like to think we know [how good] the teams are, but we don’t. Strange things happen. There are some trends that I think make sense. Usually the team that opens up [at home] on Thursday night doesn’t cover against their opponent for whatever reason. I’m not telling you it’s a factual thing like it’s definitely going to happen this year, but it’s something I like. I’ll look at teams that come off of “Monday Night Football” and go on the road. I definitely check out teams that have back-to-back road games, and this year we actually have five teams that have three consecutive road games — might be something to peek at. … And I would tell people that NFL totals are a lot of fun to bet because you’re not betting on one side. You’re betting on them to either not score or to score, and I feel like you can get a grip on those things based upon what we’ve seen [with] some of the totals at the beginning of the year and how they go up throughout the year.
PB: What prop bets do you like on Sundays?
JC: I like a lot of the player props. I think the anytime touchdown stuff is fun, but we’ve all been there when we have the running back or the receiver who gets tackled at the 1. Inevitably, you lose your mind over it. I think the player props are a lot of fun if you dive into those. I use algorithms. I look at a lot of different things to try to help break that down and figure it out. I’ll try to find games that I think are going to be high-scoring and then look at the sides and say, “Do I have a feel for either side?” If I like a team to be high-scoring or a game to be high-scoring and I think the home team’s going to win, I may look at some of those running backs on the team that I think is going to win for their overs just because I’m going to look in the fourth quarter [for] them toting the rock. I use PFF. I use RotoGrinders, and one of the guys there has an algorithm called “The Blitz” that I really like for fantasy and gambling. I use some of that stuff to really help me out to see if there really is an edge in what the algorithms are saying as far as some of the numbers that are put out. Usually, Vegas is really spot-on, but every once in awhile you find a book that might be off by 5 or 7 yards on a total and that can help on a player prop.
PB: When is the best time for listeners to tune in to “The Big Bad Morning Show” on 105.7 The Fan on Friday mornings during football season for your overview of what’s to come on Sunday?
JC: On the show, it would be in the 9 o’clock hour — usually 9:15 or 9:30. Most Fridays it’s 9:30.
Photo Credit: Kenya Allen/PressBox
Issue 282: August/September 2023
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