Here are my power rankings for Week 1 of the NFL season.
For these first rankings, I’ll look into how each team could end up being better or worse than my initial ranking.
1. Kansas City Chiefs (14-3 record last year, No. 2 in final 2022 rankings)
Worse if: Patrick Mahomes gets hurt OR none of the young receivers develop and Chris Jones never comes back into the fold and the rest of the AFC gets a little closer.
2. Philadelphia Eagles (14-3, No. 4)
Better if: Those things happen to the Chiefs OR the Georgia Eagles defense gets even better while someone breaks out of their running back corps to be an impact player.
Worse if: Probably only injuries … or for some reason they’re shipped out of the NFC and into a better conference. Like the Pac-12.
3. Cincinnati Bengals (12-4, No. 5)
Better if: The secondary proves to be much better than it looks on paper.
Worse if: The secondary isn’t even as good as it looks on paper OR they remember at some point that they’re the Bengals.
4. San Francisco 49ers (13-4, No. 3)
Better if: Brock Purdy is legitimately Kurt Warner.
Worse if: He’s legitimately the guy selected with the final pick in the draft.
5. Buffalo Bills (13-3, No. 1)
Better if: James Cook finally gives the offense the balance it has needed for some time.
Worse if: We’re not able to keep pretending like that Josh Allen-Stefon Diggs riff never happened.
6. Baltimore Ravens (10-7, No. 11)
Better if: I’m being overdramatic about the pass rush and secondary.
Worse if: He can’t get hurt for a third straight season, right? RIGHT?
7. Jacksonville Jaguars (9-8, No. 9)
Better if: Last year was just a sign of things to come and Calvin Ridley is Calvin Ridley.
Worse if: Their work on the offensive line bears no fruit.
8. Los Angeles Chargers (10-7, No. 8)
Better if: Rashawn Slater is the guy we think he is.
Worse if: They continue to think that their best strategy is to shoot themselves directly in the foot.
9. New York Jets (7-10, No. 21)
Better if: Aaron Rodgers’ issues last year were only about his lack of receivers.
Worse if: They were also about his age.
10. Miami Dolphins (9-8, No. 18)
Better if: Keeping Tua Tagovailoa on the field would be a start.
Worse if: No running back steps forward as an individual threat OR the disparity somehow continues to grow between on-field Tyreek Hill and off-field Tyreek Hill.
11. Dallas Cowboys (12-5, No. 6)
Better if: Tony Pollard and/or maybe Deuce Vaughn makes them more dynamic at running but also, let’s be honest, even if they’re momentarily better they won’t be when it matters.
Worse if: We get to January sooner than we expect.
12. Detroit Lions (9-8, No. 12)
Better if: They’re also able to win games BEFORE they stop mattering.
Worse if: Maybe they should have done, like, ANYTHING of relevance before we anointed them America’s Team?
13. Minnesota Vikings (13-4, No. 7)
Better if: Jordan Addison is like … almost every other receiver they’ve drafted.
Worse if: Just getting rid of good football players isn’t actually the best strategy AND/OR they’re not done with the strategy yet, either.
14. Pittsburgh Steelers (9-8, No. 15)
Better if: Kenny Pickett surpasses “scrappy.”
Worse if: It’s our collective lucky day.
15. New York Giants (9-7-1, No. 13)
Better if: Their receiving corps proves to be more than just “intriguing.”
Worse if: Maybe you shouldn’t give a billion dollars to a quarterback JUST because you want to keep your running back?
16. Seattle Seahawks (9-8, No. 16)
Better if: Their ability to find superstars in the mid-to-late rounds isn’t limited to just one year.
Worse if: Maybe we got a little too excited about Geno Smith?
17. Cleveland Browns (7-10, No. 24)
Better if: The guy they guaranteed $230 million to proves to be slightly better than … every other Cleveland Browns quarterback.
Worse if: Not having the money to upgrade the rest of their roster is exactly the problem you’d think it is.
18. Los Angeles Rams (5-12, No. 27)
Better if: Cooper Kupp gets healthy and Aaron Donald is healthy and Matthew Stafford stays healthy.
Worse if: Those are all of the meaningful players on the roster.
19. Green Bay Packers (8-9, No. 10)
Better if: It was worth not giving your Hall of Fame quarterback any receiver help so that you could draft a player who wouldn’t play for years.
Worse if: This isn’t actually history repeating itself at all.
20. Chicago Bears (3-14, No. 32)
Better if: Justin Fields takes a reasonable jump from Year 2 to Year 3 and all of the new pieces fit.
Worse if: Maybe they should have upgraded the defensive front, too?
21. Washington Commanders (8-8-1, No. 19)
Better if: Sam Howell is half as good as people there want you to believe he is.
Worse if: They don’t care quite as much about winning real games as they do fake ones.
22. Tennessee Titans (7-10, No. 20)
Better if: They turn to Will Levis. And he’s better at being a football player than he is at being a barista.
Worse if: They need Derrick Henry to totally carry them again and that’s just not really what he’s capable of doing anymore.
23. New England Patriots (8-9, No. 17)
Better if: Bill Belichick has one more magic trick up his sleeve.
Worse if: Oh no.
24. New Orleans Saints (7-10, No. 22)
Better if: The Derek Carr that we’ve seen in fleeting moments somehow shows up again for a full season.
Worse if: They’re actually counting on Michael Thomas and Jimmy Graham in 2023.
25. Denver Broncos (5-12, No. 28)
Better if: They brought back Tim Tebow to help Sean Payton learn how to perform miracles. If so, let’s ride.
Worse If: This is the ride.
26. Las Vegas Raiders (6-11, No. 25)
Better if: They’re not actually asking Jimmy Garoppolo to do that much.
Worse if: They are.
27. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-9, No. 14)
Better if: Rakim Jarrett is the next Stefon Diggs after all.
Worse if: I mean, they ARE starting Baker Mayfield …
28. Carolina Panthers (7-10, No. 23)
Better if: Bryce Young was worth the price.
Worse if: Even if he’s close, it turns out you still need some other good players.
29. Atlanta Falcons (7-10, No. 26)
Better if: We’re all DRAMATICALLY wrong about Desmond Ridder.
Worse if: Somehow the one thing they seemed to get right (Bijan Robinson) ends up being wrong, too.
30. Houston Texans (3-13-1, No. 31)
Better if: If C.J. Stroud comes along quickly, I dunno, there’s a fairly unique core here with Dameon Pierce and Laremy Tunsil and Will Anderson and Derek Stingley I could talk myself into it.
Worse if: That would be really hard.
31. Indianapolis Colts (4-12-1, No. 29)
Better if: Jonathan Taylor wakes up one morning and just agrees to pretend like nothing has happened for the last five months OR Evan Hull is more than the guy your buddy asked “who the hell is Evan Hull” about in the 14th round.
Worse if: They do a complete fire sale maybe?
32. Arizona Cardinals (4-13, No. 30)
Better if: The worst pep talk in sports history puts some fire in their gut.
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