We’ve made it. It’s officially Orange-tober. Or DL Hall-oween. Or Spooky (Hender)-season.
Look, two out of three ain’t bad. Ryan O’Hearn tended to think so anyway.
As we await the Birds’ American League Division Series opponent, it’s time to put the playoffs in focus. In honor of a recently departed icon, here are my five thoughts on the Orioles going into the playoffs.
1. Hopefully the late-season offensive slump was of no significance.
During their last eight games, the Orioles averaged just 2.6 runs per game. Perhaps for some of that stretch they were feeling the weight of trying to finish off the division title. It’s certainly unfair to judge anyone for anything that happened during the final weekend when the team had next to nothing to play for.
Still, there are some concerning trends. Anthony Santander hit just .246 in his last 15 games. Cedric Mullins .125, Adam Frazier .158, Austin Hays .170, James McCann .178, Ramón Urías .207, Ryan Mountcastle .224, Gunnar Henderson .226, Jordan Westburg .231. Aaron Hicks had just two hits in his last 19 at-bats. Ryan O’Hearn had none in his last 23.
Clinching the division was critical for a team that seemed as though they needed a breather. But we still have to learn whether this was just a run-of-the-mill slump or a group of players who have largely never played this deep into a season hitting a bit of a wall.
2. The fourth starter should be … Kyle Gibson. Unless he shouldn’t be.
In September, Dean Kremer pitched to a 3.57 ERA for the Orioles while Gibson pitched to a 2.45 ERA in the same stretch. Combined with Gibson’s three previous playoff starts, this was the evidence needed to make the veteran the correct call to join Kyle Bradish, Grayson Rodriguez and John Means in the Orioles’ rotation.
But they don’t need to announce that. The Orioles could easily announce just the first three as starters for the Division Series and then give themselves the flexibility to play matchups in each of the first three games. If Gibson happens to feel like the right call given his track record against the hitters coming up in, say, the 12th inning of Game 2, Brandon Hyde should feel empowered to put his veteran starter in that position, leaving Kremer to start Game 4.
3. And at the back end of the bullpen? Yennier Ca-Wells. Definitely Tyler Well-oumbe. Danny Coul-no. Right. That’s exactly what I said.
The weird part is that the mental makeup needed to have the closer role makes me believe that, in general, it is better to go into the playoffs with one pitcher (whoever it might be) designated as the individual closer at first. I think giving that reliever the opportunity to prepare accordingly is a bigger benefit than trying to play “closer by committee” and make the decision by matchup, tempting as it might seem.
I would be personally inclined to give Tyler Wells the first crack at the job in the playoffs, albeit with a short leash. He did not allow even a single hit in any of his four relief appearances (five innings) after being recalled from Triple-A Norfolk. He actually only had one total baserunner during the span. The biggest argument against him would be his propensity for allowing home runs and five innings worth of work is not enough to calm those concerns.
As much as Cano struggled down the stretch, I would still support him inheriting the gig in the playoffs over the idea of the committee approach.
4. As close as the kick might be, we can’t choose to move the goalposts.
The Orioles have been the best team in the American League this season and showed themselves more than capable of defeating the other top AL contenders (Astros/Rays) during the course of the regular season. We have every reason to feel like this isn’t just the START of something special but that this could actually be the very team to end the franchise’s four-decade World Series drought.
Still, recent baseball history suggests that it just doesn’t work that way. The Kris Bryant-led Cubs didn’t win the World Series in their first playoff appearance, falling in the 2015 NLCS before ending that franchise’s World Series drought a year later. The Jose Altuve-led Astros came up short in the 2015 postseason before ultimately winning the 2017 World Series. The Ronald Acuña Jr.-led Braves core made three straight postseason exits before claiming the 2021 title.
Typically speaking, these teams built around a young nucleus of players who came up together have had to go through postseason scars before ultimately claiming glory. That does not mean the Orioles can’t break the mold over the coming weeks. But that perspective should be key if they don’t.
5. I hope you’ve enjoyed this magical regular season. Because this just went from joy ride to “1940s wooden roller coaster.”
Remember what playoff baseball feels like? Yeah? Hope you’re stocked up on stomach medication. It’s going to be more turbulent than your relationship with that girl Kelly who all of your friends in college kept telling you to your face that they liked when you couldn’t help but notice that none of them seemed to mind when she wasn’t around.
Every freaking out is about to feel like a damn chore. Don’t watch these games with your friends. If you’re not going, stay as far away from other humans as possible. The 2023 Orioles will forever be one of the best stories in baseball, but there is no such thing as a good story in the playoffs. It’s just a seemingly never-ending collection of nail-biting, teeth-shattering, butt-clenching, terrifying moments.
Enjoy every single one.
Photo Credit: Colin Murphy/PressBox