Let’s dive into some news and notes around the league, my top fantasy plays and favorite picks for Week 7.
Notes:
• Normally, I post this last, but there are six teams on a bye this week so set your lineup accordingly. The Bengals, Cowboys, Jets, Panthers, Texans and Titans are all off this week. And because it makes so much sense, there are no teams on a bye next week.
• Last week, it was Justin Jefferson who went down with an injury that will keep him out significant time. This week, it’s Christian McCaffrey that left Sunday’s game with an injury. Kyle Shanahan didn’t say much when asked Monday about his running back’s status moving forward, but did say Deebo Samuel is “day-to-day.” The reluctance to comment makes me believe CMC could miss at least this week, if not more. Elijah Mitchell and Jordan Mason should both be rostered for the time being. It doesn’t seem to matter who is carrying the ball in Shanahan’s offense, they will produce.
• The bye weeks could not have come at a worse time for some fantasy owners as in addition to the six teams on bye, Justin Fields, Trevor Lawrence, David Montgomery, Kyren Williams and Deebo Samuel are just some of the several fantasy starters who could be out this week.
• Another week, another dominant performance from the Dolphins’ running game. Raheem Mostert was the lead back with DeVon Achane injured and Jeff Wilson still on injured reserve. He finished with 20 touches for 132 and three more touchdowns, bringing his total to 11 on the year. Mostert is the fantasy MVP at this stage of the season and is a weekly must start.
• It’s only been two weeks, but how the Colts have utilized Jonathan Taylor and Zack Moss thus far has left fantasy owners with more questions than answers. Last week, Moss got most of the work, seeing 80 percent of the snaps, compared to just 15 percent for Taylor. This week, it was 50-42 in favor of Moss, and both did more damage through the air than on the ground. I think the playing time will continue to tilt in Taylor’s favor, but Moss is still a FLEX play, especially with so many teams on a bye this week.
• Adam Thielen has discovered the Fountain of Youth as he looks like the player who was dominant five years ago as a Viking. There isn’t much to be excited about with the Panthers, but Thielen has taken advantage of a weak Panthers’ receiving group and has back-to-back games with 13 targets. Sunday was the third time this season he had double-digit targets, and in all three games, he has posted more than 100 yards and scored a touchdown. Carolina is going to be trailing a lot this season, so expect a ton more targets going his way.
• Many fantasy experts had the Bengals, Eagles and Dolphins receivers highly ranked in their draft rankings. Tyreek Hill, A.J. Brown and Ja’Marr Chase are all off to terrific starts, but their counterparts — Jaylen Waddle, DeVonta Smith and Tee Higgins — are not living up to expectations. I still have faith in all three to be fantasy starters and would buy low on each, but it was unrealistic to think three teams would support six of the top 25 receivers.
• Sam LaPorta continues to defy the narrative that rookie tight ends cannot contribute right away. He’s TE2, trailing only the legendary Travis Kelce at the position. This is no fluke either, as despite reeling in just four passes for 36 yards in Week 6, he led the position with 11 targets this week. He’s fourth at tight ends in both receptions (29) and targets (42), and his three scores are tied for the position lead. He is one of the few tight ends you can count on for consistent production and moves into my top five at the position.
• As always, keep tabs on the weather for your kicker selections. We are inching closer to colder, nastier weather, so don’t be the person who has a kicker playing in a rainstorm.
Thursday Night Game: Jaguars vs. Saints
Sunday Night Game: Dolphins vs. Eagles
Monday Night Game: 49ers vs. Vikings
Top Pickups of the Week: Zach Evans, Jordan Mason, Craig Reynolds, Josh Reynolds, Rashee Rice, Logan Thomas, Michael Mayer
Buy Low: Lamar Jackson, James Cook, Dameon Pierce, DeVonta Smith, Jaylen Waddle, Darren Waller
Sell High: Brock Purdy, Derrick Henry, Zack Moss, Drake London, Courtland Sutton, Kyle Pitts
Send to the Waiver Wire: Anthony Richardson, Emari Demercado, Dalvin Cook, Samaje Perine, Jahan Dotson, Tutu Atwell, Dalton Kincaid
Start ‘Em:
Quarterback: Geno Smith
Running Back: Brian Robinson
Wide Receiver: Jakobi Meyers
Tight End: Jonnu Smith
Defense: Raiders
Sit ‘Em:
Quarterback: Kirk Cousins
Running Back: Najee Harris
Wide Receiver: Jerry Jeudy
Tight End: Hunter Henry
Defense: Eagles
Sleepers:
Quarterback: Sam Howell
Running Back: Zach Evans
Wide Receiver: Jayden Reed
Tight End: Michael Mayer
Defense: Colts
NFL Picks for Week 7
Weekly Pick ‘Em (Season Record: 58-35)
Saints (vs. Jaguars)
Buccaneers (vs. Falcons)
Raiders (vs. Bears)
Browns (vs. Colts)
Lions (vs. Ravens)
Bills (vs. Patriots)
Commanders (vs. Giants)
Seahawks (vs. Cardinals)
Rams (vs. Steelers)
Chiefs (vs. Chargers)
Broncos (vs. Packers)
Eagles (vs. Dolphins)
49ers (vs. Vikings)
Five Picks Against The Spread (Season Record: 14-16)
Lions +3 vs. Ravens
Commanders -1.5 vs. Giants
Rams -3 vs. Steelers
Broncos +1.5 vs. Packers
Vikings +7 vs. 49ers
Five Over-Under Totals (Season Record: 15-15)
Jaguars-Saints Under 39
Raiders-Bears Under 37.5
Browns-Colts Under 39.5
Chargers-Chiefs Over 49.5
Dolphins-Eagles Over 52.5
One Bold Prediction for the Week
Week 1: Sam Howell finishes as a top-five fantasy QB against Cardinals. (miss)
Week 2: Michael Thomas leads all players in receiving yards in the two Monday night games. (miss)
Week 3: Justin Fields leads the league in rushing yards in an effort to keep up with the Chiefs. (miss)
Week 4: Travis Kelce has more receiving yards than Zach Wilson has passing yards in the “Sunday Night Football” game. (miss)
Week 5: The Bills put up 50-plus points against the Jaguars in London. (miss)
Week 6: Josh Jacobs has more total scrimmage yards than Mac Jones has passing yards. (miss)
Week 7: Eagles hold Tyreek Hill under 50 receiving yards
Photo Credit: Kenya Allen/PressBox