We asked PressBox’s Stan “The Fan” Charles and Glenn Clark for their favorite NBA futures bets ahead of the 2023-24 season. All numbers are from SuperBook Sports in mid-October.
Stan “The Fan” Charles
Philadelphia 76ers Under 48.5 Wins (-110)
The past several years, I have watched tons of NBA games and reacquainted myself with the league. I started getting back into the NBA well past the time the Thunder had broken up the Big Three of Kevin Durant, James Harden and Russell Westbrook.
At the time, Harden was one of the most dynamic players in the league. He actually led the NBA in scoring three seasons in a row, from 2017-18 to 2019-20, with the Rockets. Those three seasons are the only seasons he has averaged more than 30 points per game during his career.
Harden was traded to the Nets during the 2020-21 season after the team had brought in both Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving. It never really worked out for any of those three in Brooklyn, but all three have continued getting real big dollars. Irving was sent to the Mavericks and Durant to the Suns ahead of last year’s deadline. Harden was dealt to the 76ers ahead of the deadline a season earlier.
At the time of the deal, it was thought that the tandem of Harden and Joel Embiid would keep the Sixers at the top of the heap in the East and make them contenders for the next three to four seasons.
A funny thing happened on the trip to Philly: Harden’s shooting and overall game went south. This past June, Harden opted into the final year of his contract and requested a trade. Sixers president of basketball operations Daryl Morey made some desperate attempts to offload his once-brilliant guard but couldn’t find a deal to create a more athletic team around Embiid.
Somehow, Harden and Morey have squared off in a very public feud, with Harden calling Morey a liar.
Talk about dysfunction. Talk about a player taking up a huge amount of cap space as his skills decline. It all adds up to a significant loss of wins. I have the Sixers just a couple games above .500. That would be 13 fewer wins than last season and comfortably below 48.5.
Milwaukee Bucks To Win The NBA Championship (+400)
It’s surprising to me that the Nuggets (+500) are not the favorites to win it all again, but the Bucks and Celtics are co-favorites. The Celtics acquired big man Kristaps Porzingis and steady guard Jrue Holiday, which does explain the optimism about the Celtics making a real run.
However, the biggest trade of the offseason saw the Trail Blazers pull the trigger on trading star guard Damian Lillard, who gives the Bucks arguably the best one-two punch in the league with two-time MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo.
Last season, Milwaukee won more regular-season games (58) than any other team in the league. There may be more tough teams across the league, so the Bucks’ win total could actually drop. That doesn’t mean that they won’t become a better, deeper and more dangerous team as Lillard gets to know his teammates better and vice versa. I think they may become more and more unstoppable by the time the playoffs roll around.
Adrian Griffin replaces Mike Budenholzer as head coach, which I’m sure some see as a positive.
Glenn Clark
Chet Holmgren To Win Rookie Of The Year (+250)
This number has actually come down from +350, but I still love it — and the hype surrounding Victor Wembanyama helps here. Oklahoma City has the chance to compete for a playoff berth and after having lost a season from Holmgren, the Thunder will presumably want to ramp him up quickly. For as freakish as Wembanyama is, he’s in a tough spot and there could still be an adjustment period. Ben Simmons and Blake Griffin are examples of players who have taken advantage of missing their first season to get a delayed Rookie of the Year nod.
Washington Wizards Under 24.5 Wins (-110)
You can try to “best-case scenario” this and imagine Jordan Poole returning to the form that once made us believe he was an ascending star with the Warriors and Bilal Coulibaly breaking through quickly, but even in that scenario, they’re still probably not winning many games. There just isn’t a lot here. It’s unlikely there will be a ton of buy-in from the fan base, and disappointment is part of the DNA of the franchise.
Photo Credit: Colin Murphy/PressBox
Issue 283: October/November 2023
Originally published Oct. 18, 2023