Closing out the baseball year with a quick glance at the immediate past — and a similar look forward, with some emphasis on the Orioles and what next season may, or may not, look like …
While 2023 will be noted as having produced the least-watched World Series of all time, it may also be the one that caused the most overreaction. Which is saying a lot, considering it only lasted five games.
The fact that the Series was played between two teams less than 1,000 miles apart (neither in the Eastern Time Zone) and without even a semblance of rivalry history undoubtedly had much to do with the tepid interest. Those of us who live on the right coast tend to think that anything happening west of the Mississippi River is insignificant in the grand scheme of things.
Add a pair of teams unable to exceed 90 wins during the regular season and … well, you get the idea. But it would be a mistake to judge this series by one game, which seems to have been the case. Granted, the next to last game, No. 4, was one of the all-time stinkers — but the Texas Rangers’ win against the Arizona Diamondbacks in five games shouldn’t be gauged on that clunker alone.
It would be a mistake to go to sleep on either the Diamondbacks, who won 84 games during the regular season, or the Rangers, one of three MLB teams to flatten out at 90. They’re not going away anytime soon and, it says here, both will be in the postseason mix again next year.
Right about now would be a good time to realize that one win, or loss, per month is just about enough to neutralize the difference between 85 and 100 wins. I thought the Diamondbacks and Rangers displayed an interesting contrast in styles that was presented well in games other than the No. 4 clunker. The ratings, as expected, were down and that’s a legitimate concern for MLB, but the brand of baseball was better than what was generally perceived.
The early rounds weren’t as competitive as one might expect, but that hardly diminishes the Rangers winning 11 straight while going undefeated in road games, a feat that may be equaled some day, but not beaten.
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Don’t ask me what’s going on in the managerial carousel. On one hand we have the Cubs giving Craig Counsell an insane amount of money ($40 million for five years) to leave the Milwaukee Brewers, while other teams are offering little more than players’ minimum wage numbers.
Counsell has been highly regarded while leading the Brewers to multiple playoff appearances, but he hasn’t won anything yet. Reportedly the Brewers offered a contract that would have made him the highest paid manager in the game, reportedly $5.5 million per — but permitted him to shop around, an almost unheard of situation.
The move enabled Counsell to move way up on the pay scale even as he dropped a notch or two in the standings.
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Judging by my inbox, text board and general conversation, there seems to be an almost unanimous consensus that the Orioles need to make two additions to complete their roster — a “thumper” for the middle of the lineup and an “ace” for the top of the rotation.
Given that there very few of either available as free agents, the trade market seems to be where most observers feel the Orioles will be most active. The problem is, as certain as everybody seems to be about the needs, few agree on which prospects, if any, are available to trade.
Assuming that all of the farm system experts are correct, the Orioles have a glutton of infielders and outfielders considered major league ready, meaning somebody has to go from either the major league roster or the minor league prospect list.
As I see it, there are complications. If the Orioles are serious about adding a power hitter, there can be no thought of trading Anthony Santander, given the fact that he and Ryan Mountcastle are the only two power bats with track records on the team.
Even if you could find the right match, bringing a hitter in via free agency would only further complicate matters by adding to the logjam. Perhaps the most intriguing player in this regard is Ryan O’Hearn, who came out of nowhere to give the Orioles a needed left-handed bat to supplement Mountcastle at first base.
Heston Kjerstad is also in the outfield/first base/designated hitter mix, along with Colton Cowser, Kyle Stowers (remember him?) plus incumbents Austin Hays and Cedric Mullins. O’Hearn makes it a very crowded picture. The Orioles consider Kjerstad a pure power hitter with considerable potential while some look at Cowser as a premium prospect along the lines of Kyle Tucker, the Houston outfielder drafted under Elias’ watch with the Astros.
All of this is in addition to decisions the Orioles have to make about their infield, most important of which could be deciding which position is best for Gunnar Henderson, which in turn might depend on whether Jackson Holliday is going to be the shortstop or second baseman in the future.
Joey Ortiz, considered by most to be the best defender of the bunch, hit .321 at Norfolk in 2023 and sending him back to Triple-A without at least a shot at a big league job would seem to be prospect abuse. For the moment at least, Jordan Westburg looms as either the second or third baseman, but make no mistake, the Orioles will be busy this offseason.
It might very well be that the most crucial decisions will be as much about who leaves as who is acquired in any possible trades. The role of starting pitchers is as erratic as it is controversial, and while baseball tries to figure it out, Elias has been content to try and figure it out on the fly.
Unless he can find somebody with a proven record better than what the Orioles have, I don’t expect Elias to pull the trigger on a trade that would give up considerable player capital. If anything, I suspect he might be inclined to make a deal in an effort to make room for an infielder and/or outfielder in the lineup. In that case, he would be looking to further stockpile the supply of minor league talent.
As such, it very well could be that the biggest decisions Elias has to make this offseason will revolve around the players he gives up rather than the ones he receives.
It will be complicated.
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The same is true when it comes to adding a pitcher. In the absence of any practical available “aces,” any potential No. 1 starter would have to be better than those already on the roster. That means finding somebody with more upside than Grayson Rodriguez or Kyle Bradish, with Dean Kremer slotted behind those two. Many prognosticators are programming John Means into that mix, but until the left-hander shows that he’s recovered from Tommy John surgery, any contribution has to be considered a bonus.
Add Tyler Wells and DL Hall to the equation, even while factoring in the inevitable injury prospect, and there remains a lot to digest. In addition to the consensus mentioned before, there is the general feeling that the Orioles must do something this offseason to prove they mean business. MUST is one of the words I hate to see in a headline, as it implies there are no alternatives, and I also realize that “hope” is not a plan going forward.
So, while I think this offseason is crucial for the Orioles in many ways, I don’t expect Mike Elias to make a splashy move just yet.
Jim Henneman can be reached at JimH@pressboxonline.com
Photo Credit: Courtesy of the Baltimore Orioles