Spencer Schultz (@ravens4dummies on Twitter/X) has joined PressBox to share his favorite plays each day.
Ravens-Chargers Picks:
Parlay: Keaton Mitchell 50+ rushing yards + Keaton Mitchell receiving O8.5 receiving yards + Zay Flowers 40+ receiving yards + Isaiah Likely 3+ receptions + Lamar Jackson 225+ passing yards.
The Chargers’ defense in non-garbage time ranks as follows:
31st in EPA/play allowed
24th in drop back success rate allowed
15th in rush EPA/play allowed
16th in rushing success rate allowed
That makes me think Jackson spreads the ball around and Likely is an easy candidate to see two or three more targets while stepping into the void Mark Andrews’ injury created.
Gus Edwards 2+ touchdowns (+700 currently)
Edwards has two or more touchdowns in three of his last four games. I’m not a fan of trends necessarily, but with those odds? I’m a fan.
Keaton Mitchell over 37.5 rushing yards.
Mitchell should be flying around on the turf in SoFi. The speedster hasn’t reached this mark in two weeks, but following a long week to continue acclimating the rookie back, he should show out in a primetime matchup.
Ravens +3.5 alternate spread + over 44.5 alternate total
The Ravens’ run game completely overwhelmed Brandon Staley’s defense in their last matchup. Staley is coaching for his job in front of a national audience and has shown signs of crumbling under pressure. Justin Herbert has little help in creating explosive plays against a Mike Macdonald defense that limits them. The only way the Chargers can win this game is if they can magically turn into the Browns’ defense against the run and Herbert and his makeshift crew plays four quarters of mistake free football. The Ravens won’t lose by more than a field goal. Taking them moneyline is a fine play.
More Sunday Picks:
Kyren Williams anytime touchdown
The Rams fed Williams in the red zone prior to his injury. In a tight divisional game, Williams should see multiple touches inside the 5-yard line.
Denver Broncos -2.5 alternate spread + under 40
This is one of the biggest trap lines I can recall. The Browns’ defense is legit, but so is the Broncos’ and Russell Wilson will be able to flip the ball around at home enough to rattle off another victory as the Broncos are quietly one of the hottest teams in football. Dorian Thompson-Robinson a mile high can’t get it done.
D’Andre Swift over 59.5 yards rushing
The Bills don’t come out of nickel, and the Eagles’ front will be able to generate enough movement for Swift to stay hot.
Josh Allen over 29.5 yards rushing + anytime touchdown
The Eagles front will create penetration in a dire game for the Bills. Allen must use his legs to will the Bills toward the playoffs. Playing in Philly should limit Buffalo’s presnap communication, which leads to Allen improvising.
Jalen Hurts anytime touchdown
Why bet against the tush push? I’m willing to lose money betting on Hurts to continue his torrid touchdown pace.
Devonta Smith over 56.5 receiving yards
Smith’s workload increases substantially when Dallas Goedert misses time.
Pittsburgh Steelers-Cincinnati Bengals alternate total under 40.5 + Steelers +3.5
Rain? Jake Browning? Under, Steelers probably win outright.
Derrick Henry over 72.5 yards rushing + anytime touchdown
The Panthers’ run defense is abhorrent and it’s Tractorcito season. The Panthers aren’t good enough to force the Titans into a negative game script. Take Henry 100-plus yards and two touchdowns if you’re feeling frisky for more juice.
Jaylen Warren over 49.5 rushing yards
The Steelers’ new offensive coordinator will understand the assignment: get Warren the football.
Jaguars -2.5 alternate spread
C.J. Stroud is fantastic, but the Jaguars’ defense is quietly having a stellar year. In a divisional game, the Jaguars are more experienced and will create a sloppy game flow that allows them to control the pace.
Mike Evans 80+ receiving yards
Evans torches Cover-3. The Colts love Cover-3. Baker Mayfield makes sure Evans gets fed weekly. I also love Evans longest reception over 23.5 yards and Evans anytime touchdown.
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