Let’s dive into some news and notes around the league, my top fantasy plays and favorite picks for Week 15.
Notes:
• The amount of quarterbacks who have missed action this year is sure to be a topic of discussion this offseason. Justin Herbert is out for the remainder of the season with a finger injury, while C.J. Stroud is likely out for Week 15 due to a head injury. For fantasy purposes, I’ve never been a fan of rostering too many QBs because typically the options are plentiful on the waiver wire when in need. That strategy might have to change when it comes time to discuss fantasy drafts next summer.
• Fantasy owners hoping Justin Jefferson could be a late-season hero had their dreams ruined when the star wide receiver departed Sunday’s game against the Raiders with an injury that required a hospital visit. I’m anticipating that Jefferson will be out of action again this week with the Vikings playing Saturday afternoon. But if he’s active, make sure Jefferson is in your lineup. Don’t overthink it. He was the top pick in many fantasy leagues for a reason.
• Stroud wasn’t the only Texan to leave early against the Jets on Sunday, as Nico Collins also picked up an injury this week. Houston recently lost Tank Dell for the season, Dalton Schultz was inactive again in Week 14 and now Collins has a calf injury as the Texans fight for one of the final playoff spots in the AFC. The Texans have been one of the biggest surprises with Stroud leading the passing attack, but I’m not even considering starting Davis Mills or Noah Brown in these must-win fantasy games.
• Ezekiel Elliott looked like his old self against the Steelers, as the former No. 4 overall pick led all running backs in fantasy with 23.5 points scored in half-PPR leagues. That was points than Tony Pollard — Elliott’s replacement in Dallas and a popular first-round pick in drafts this summer — has scored in any game all season. Elliott was the top waiver claim in many leagues last week and rewarded any owners who took a chance on him. Don’t expect that kind of success each week as the Patriots are still one of the league’s worst offenses, but he had 29 touches, including a team-high seven receptions. No other running back recorded a carry for New England.
• There was plenty of buzz last week after it was reported that the Chargers could change up their running game usage. If that meant Isaiah Spiller would see 12 snaps, more than Joshua Kelly’s seven plays, then yes, the Chargers made a change. But otherwise, there was no mistake who was still the lead back. Austin Ekeler was on the field for 49 of 68 plays, recording 100 total yards and a touchdown. The Chargers are on a short week so maybe the intention was to use Ekeler a bit less, but he can be started without any fear of losing significant touches.
• Matchups are key as we enter crunch time of the fantasy season, so it’s important to find the best defenses and kickers each week as every point matters. Target kickers who play in domes or warm-weather cities. As far as defenses go, look for those who are going against the league’s worst offenses. The Chiefs play New England and Las Vegas the next two weeks. The Packers have Tampa Bay, Carolina and Minnesota the next three. Target those defenses rather than sticking with the Bills or Ravens defenses. Each unit has a rough stretch of opponents during the fantasy playoffs.
Thursday Game: Chargers vs. Raiders
Saturday Games: Vikings vs. Bengals, Steelers vs. Colts, Broncos vs. Lions
Sunday Night Game: Ravens vs. Jaguars
Monday Night Game: Eagles vs. Seahawks
Top Pickups of the Week: Jake Browning, Joe Flacco, Ty Chandler, Zamir White, Zay Jones, Colts D/ST
Send to the Waiver Wire: Justin Herbert, Roschon Johnson, Dameon Pierce
Start ‘Em:
Quarterback: Matthew Stafford
Running Back: James Cook
Wide Receiver: Jayden Reed
Tight End: Isaiah Likely
Defense: Colts
Sit ‘Em:
Quarterback: Jared Goff
Running Back: AJ Dillon
Wide Receiver: George Pickens
Tight End: Logan Thomas
Defense: Jaguars
Sleepers:
Quarterback: Jake Browning
Running Back: Ty Chandler
Wide Receiver: John Metchie III
Tight End: Brevin Jordan
Defense: Titans
NFL Picks for Week 15:
Weekly Pick ‘Em (Season Record: 129-79)
Chargers (vs. Raiders)
Bengals (vs. Vikings)
Colts (vs. Steelers)
Broncos (vs. Lions)
Falcons (vs. Panthers)
Browns (vs. Bears)
Packers (vs. Buccaneers)
Texans (vs. Titans)
Saints (vs. Giants)
Dolphins (vs. Jets)
Chiefs (vs. Patriots)
Rams (vs. Commanders)
Bills (vs. Cowboys)
Ravens (vs. Jaguars)
Eagles (vs. Seahawks)
Five Picks Against The Spread (Season Record: 32-37-1)
Broncos +4.5 vs. Lions
Texans +2.5 vs. Titans
Colts -2.5 vs. Steelers
Bills -2.5 vs. Cowboys
Ravens -3.5 vs. Jaguars
Five Over-Under Totals (Season Record: 35-35)
Chargers-Raiders under 33.5
Texans-Titans over 38.5
Buccaneers-Packers under 42.5
Commanders-Rams over 48.5
Chiefs-Patriots under 37
One Bold Prediction for the Week
Week 1: Sam Howell finishes as a top-five fantasy QB against Cardinals. (miss)
Week 2: Michael Thomas leads all players in receiving yards in the two Monday night games. (miss)
Week 3: Justin Fields leads the league in rushing yards in an effort to keep up with the Chiefs. (miss)
Week 4: Travis Kelce has more receiving yards than Zach Wilson has passing yards in the “Sunday Night Football” game. (miss)
Week 5: The Bills put up 50-plus points against the Jaguars in London. (miss)
Week 6: Josh Jacobs has more total scrimmage yards than Mac Jones has passing yards. (miss)
Week 7: The Eagles hold Tyreek Hill to under 50 receiving yards. (miss)
Week 8: The Jets and Giants score more points than the Patriots and Dolphins. The Jets-Giants total is 36.5, while Patriots-Dolphins total is the highest of the week at 47. (major miss)
Week 9: Tee Higgins leads all receivers in yardage against Bills. (miss — finished fifth)
Week 10: With Travis Kelce on a bye, a tight end leads the league in receiving. (miss)
Week 11: Jordan Love is a top-five QB in fantasy this week. (miss)
Week 12: Jalen Hurts and Josh Allen combine to score four rushing touchdowns in the Bills-Eagles matchup. (finally got one!)
Week 13: Rachaad White leads the league in scrimmage yards. (miss)
Week 14: Jared Goff and Justin Fields throw for more combined yards than Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes in their respective games. (miss)
Week 15: Kyren Williams posts more than 175 scrimmage yards.
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