Spencer Schultz has joined PressBox to share his top plays every day. He recently shared his tips for betting on the NFL playoffs, from the teams he likes the most in postseason play to his favorite Super Bowl prop bets.
PressBox: What changes and what stays the same for bettors in the playoffs, when good teams typically face good teams?
Spencer Schultz: The one area that I always look at in terms of playoff competency is that whatever your weakness is, you have the best coaches and teams that are going to try to force a matchup where you are doing something you’re uncomfortable with all day long. That’s why I love DVOA, [or defense-adjusted value over average]. I want to see a team that has a DVOA running the ball, throwing the ball, stopping the run and stopping the pass that are all positive, at a minimum. If I want to look at a favorite, if I want to look at some team I want to play a future on, you have to be able to prevent long plays in coverage. You need to be able to rush the passer. You can’t be vulnerable to the run game. You have to be able to run the ball. You have to be able to throw the ball. To fully max that out, offensive line play — you want to see five competent offensive linemen to some degree. You want to see a team that doesn’t have a weakness.
PB: What teams fit the criteria?
SS: Looking at this year’s teams, for me, you look at the 49ers, who have maybe been a little bit more susceptible through the air but still can get it done. You look at the Eagles, who typically have also been a little bit more susceptible through the air. I look at the Cowboys, who maybe aren’t the sharpest rushing team in the league but they can get it done on the ground. I think the Jaguars are underrated in that department. Their offensive line is a little weaker. The Ravens have had a really strong propensity to create explosive plays while preventing them on defense. The Kansas City Chiefs, we’ll see what happens at the end of the season this year, but they’re struggling to really air the ball out and feel comfortable doing so, especially against some of the more competent defenses they play. Those teams kind of stick out to me as the ones that are a little bit more balanced and capable in all phases.
PB: The board can be a little overwhelming on a typical Sunday. Is it easier for beginner bettors to digest the board come playoff time?
SS: I think it is when it’s reduced like that, and that’s why sometimes when you’re a little bit more experienced as a gambler, it’s like having a Tuesday night in March where it’s a couple NBA games and a couple NHL games. You’ll probably try to target one or two plays a little bit more so than that full smorgasbord. I think that the fantasy football aspect of it also comes to mind where so often people take overs. It’s almost like daily fantasy. “OK, this player is going to do well. They’ll probably score fantasy points. That means that they’ll hit their over for yards.” You kind of pick through that and you end up finding yourself placing 10-leg parlays and five different wagers on props. You end up having a full plate where you really have to hit five, six, seven bets in order to be plus money instead of having two games in a day, three games in a day throughout the playoffs into [two games] and then finally Super Bowl Sunday.
PB: Is it human nature to want to bet overs? If so, is there value to be had at times with unders?
SS: Certainly when it comes to totals, unders have been king this year. We are programmed by the marketing, by fantasy football, by everything that we consume in terms of content — including games. What is the game over the last five years that stands out in everybody’s mind as an all-time classic? The Chiefs and the Bills going to overtime in a shootout and scoring a ton of points in an exciting playoff game. That is the ideal football viewing experience. Everyone wants utopia. Everybody wants to participate and watch the big-scoring game. We are hardwired that way, we are programmed that way, and I think that’s where Vegas takes advantage of you.
PB: What Super Bowl bets can beginners have the most fun with?
SS: Last year, everybody was on Travis Kelce. Were the Kansas City Chiefs going to spend a Super Bowl not getting Travis Kelce the football? No. So you want to go to those team leaders. I think receptions to tight ends and running backs in general are a great one. If you think a team is going to win the game, the team that you don’t think is going to win the game is probably going to be firing the ball at the end of the game, trying to get the ball out, trying to make a drive, trying to kick a field goal, trying to score a touchdown, going into no-huddle. So I really love running back receptions on Super Bowl Sunday a lot of times.
… Always have to have a little under on something. Somebody’s not going to perform. Typically, I like to think it’s the big-play receiver. If there’s that deep threat who maybe has a lower target share, lower volume, and taking under receptions on that player a lot of times. Quarterback running yards is always a fun one. If there are relatively mobile quarterbacks, what game are they going to lay their body on the line? They are going to run for their life on Super Bowl Sunday.
PB: Is there anything else you would recommend come playoff time?
SS: I love Underdog Best Ball, where it’s a fantasy draft. I like it as a snake draft. You’re in a giant pool with thousands of people, but you get put into a two-week league — wild card and divisional round — against 11 other people. The top two from that league advance to the next league, then on Super Bowl Sunday it hits a pool — if you’re able to advance — of less than 1 percent of the entries, which are all prizes. The strategy there is that you’ve got to pick somebody that goes to the Super Bowl and you’ve got to pick hopefully a couple guys on both teams. The fun part about Best Ball is that there’s no monitoring of it. You can’t start or bench players. They’re auto-started based on whoever scores the most points on your team, so it doesn’t require much maintenance. That’s something I think is really fun for maybe the run-of-the-mill average fantasy football player that’s starting to saddle into gambling and daily fantasy and stuff like that. •
Follow Spencer Schultz on Twitter/X at @ravens4dummies.
Photo Credit: Kenya Allen/PressBox
Issue 284: December 2023 / January 2024
Originally published Dec. 13, 2023