No, I am not talking about the literal neighborhood surrounding Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Rather, I am talking about where the team resides in the context of Major League Baseball, meaning the American League East. Think I am exaggerating?
The entire AL East had a .554 winning percentage in 2023. The NL East (.523) was the only other division above .500. The other four divisions — the NL Central (.499), NL West (.499), AL West (.482) and AL Central (.442) — were all below .500.
While I was pretty damn excited when the Corbin Burnes acquisition was announced on Feb. 1, I pumped my brakes more than a tiny bit knowing the neighbors the Orioles face 52 times. So, when the news broke on Feb. 15 about Kyle Bradish (UCL sprain) and John Means (pushed back after an elbow flare-up in October), the starting rotation isn’t quite as exciting as it seemed back on Feb. 1.
By the time you read this, it’s quite possible GM Mike Elias will have made one or even two moves to fortify that starting staff without subtracting from the bullpen.
Now, let’s spend some ink on the improvements made by the Orioles’ neighbors, with their 2023 record in parentheses:
Tampa Bay Rays (99-63)
The Orioles are down on their luck in terms of elbow injuries, but the Rays have struggled with the same thing of late. They lost Tyler Glasnow, now with the Dodgers, for more than half of 2021 and nearly all of 2022 due to Tommy John surgery. Then last season in rapid-fire succession they lost three starting pitchers to Tommy John surgery — Jeffrey Springs, Drew Rasmussen and All-Star Shane McClanahan. They also have lost shortstop Wander Franco, possibly forever, as he is being investigated in the Dominican Republic for inappropriate relations with an underage girl.
Even with all that negative stuff, manager Kevin Cash won’t be crying in his beer. He will scheme ways to beat the team in the opposing dugout. This team has a ton of talented prospects on the way, and they picked up right-hander Ryan Pepiot and outfielder Jonny DeLuca in the Glasnow trade.
Toronto Blue Jays (89-73)
The Jays still have a strong starting rotation with a front four of Kevin Gausman, José Berríos, Chris Bassitt and Yusei Kikuchi, even if Alek Manoah doesn’t return to his pre-2023 self. A strong bullpen helps.
It’s the offensive side of things that brings the team down. The once powerful duo of Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is now not quite what it once was, but moving George Springer to right field did help the veteran play in 154 games last season after appearing in 122, 78 and 133 during the previous three full seasons.
It sure would help if outfielder Daulton Varsho could play more like his 2022 self. Prospect Davis Schneider impressed enough in 2023 to be the favorite to take over at second base. The Jays may make one more big move before the season starts.
New York Yankees (82-80)
The huge addition here is star outfielder Juan Soto. The club also signed Marcus Stroman to man the No. 3 spot in the rotation, but perhaps the key for this team is whether or not lefty Carlos Rodón can join the party and more than carry his weight.
Prior to signing with the Yankees ahead of last season, Rodón combined to go 27-13 with a 2.67 ERA across the 2021 and 2022 seasons with the Chicago White Sox and San Francisco Giants, respectively. He then went 3-8 with a 6.84 ERA in 64.1 innings in 2023. Let’s modestly project a healthy Rodón for, say, a 14-9 record and 3.25 ERA across 150 innings. If he is anywhere close to those numbers, he will form an amazing 1-2 punch with ace Gerrit Cole.
Boston Red Sox (78-84)
Nobody can quite figure out what the Red Sox are trying to do because it seems almost every move is counterproductive to winning games now, but that doesn’t mean the club didn’t make some intriguing additions.
The Sox dealt lefty Chris Sale to the Atlanta Braves for a long-term solution at second base in Vaughn Grissom, who should be a keystone fixture for at least five or six years. They moved outfielder Alex Verdugo to the division rival Yankees and replaced him with the enigmatic right-handed bat of Tyler O’Neill, who will man left field.
It looks as if Jarren Duran will play center field and rookie Wilyer Abreu may lock down right field. They also have shortstop Trevor Story for a whole season, star third baseman Rafael Devers and up-and-coming first baseman Triston Casas, whose second-half surge led him to a .263/.367/.490 slash line with 24 home runs and 65 RBIs.
However, Masataka Yoshida looks like a DH after a so-so season a year ago. The Red Sox committed $75 million to the Japanese outfielder last offseason.
Rotation-wise, right-hander Lucas Giolito will get to work with new Red Sox pitching coach Andrew Bailey, who drew rave reviews in San Francisco for helping Alex Cobb, Kevin Gausman, Carlos Rodón and Logan Webb.
While the Orioles should be good enough to win the division again, don’t expect it to be a walk in the park. With their neighbors, it could be more like the walk Little Red Riding Hood had on the way to visit her grandmother.
Photo Credit: Colin Murphy/PressBox
Issue 285: February/March 2024
Originally published Feb. 21, 2024