However you want to state it, it is clear that the sports topic du jour in Baltimore is more or less “the Orioles aren’t hitting much and the Norfolk Tides are scoring billions of runs.”
I could probably state it more eloquently and accurately, but you know what I’m getting at. After scoring 24 runs in their first two games, the Birds have managed a total of 23 runs in their next seven. They haven’t been “woeful” or “inept” necessarily, but they’ve struggled. That’s been particularly apparent against lefties.
And context is important. This is a team with World Series expectations playing against what is believed to be a “soft” early-season schedule that is supposed to help them build a bit of a cushion in the division. Instead, they’re looking up at the Red Sox (it’s quite early, I know) going into Boston’s home-opening series.
Meanwhile, through nine games at Triple A, the Tides have scored a staggering 100 runs, averaging more than 11 per game. The numbers are cartoonish. Heston Kjerstad is slashing .462/.522/1.026 (!). Kyle Stowers has six home runs. Jackson Holliday holds a .490 on-base percentage and has scored 18 runs. Coby Mayo is hitting .390. Connor Norby is hitting .395! Peyton Burdick is slashing .333/.500/.917! Peyton Burdick! Who you might remember from … being Peyton Burdick!
It has been an absolutely bonkers start for the Orioles’ top affiliate and the juxtaposition of the two teams has been difficult for fans to avoid. It has dominated Twitter conversation and translated to the radio airwaves. I’m just not fully certain what the point is, exactly.
That’s what I’ve been struggling with. We’ve discussed ad nauseam the complicated subtext the Orioles are looking at this season. There is an “old guard vs. new guard” situation playing out in front of our eyes. Decisions will have to be made. Perhaps some decisions should have already been made.
But what exactly do Orioles fans imagine this front office is going to do after (checks notes) nine baseball games? That’s the part of this that becomes difficult. I accept that there are major league players currently playing in Norfolk and that feels like a waste. But is the argument truly that the team should “move on” from Austin Hays and/or Cedric Mullins because they are slumping through 1/18th of a season? Think this through. Is the argument that the team should simply take whatever they can in a trade just to get rid of them? These are players not far removed from All-Star-caliber performances who are both above-average defensively.
I’m not saying they’ll be here forever. At some point, their early-season struggles won’t be so “early season” anymore. Particularly for a team whose “win-now” nature was amplified by the addition of Corbin Burnes for (likely) just one year. A month or two into the season, the Orioles might have to make more drastic decisions.
It’s also unreasonable to assume that any of these players would immediately translate their Triple-A numbers to the major league level. Perhaps Heston Kjerstad really is ready to be a bona fide major league middle of the order power bat right now. There would probably still be a bit of an adjustment period, so I’m not sure how much he would help, say, when the Brewers come to town this weekend. That said, I do think it’s better to get the adjustment period out of the way earlier in a season than later. It’s what makes all of this so complicated. If a king’s ransom was available in a Hays trade, I’d support the decision.
The old baseball adage is that “these things tend to take care of themselves” throughout the course of 162 games via injuries or the timing of certain players slumping while others aren’t. That might be the case. Or it might require a bold decision. A lot of thought the Orioles needed to make a bold decision about Ryan Mountcastle last season. Thankfully they allowed that to work itself out.
The one area where “let it work itself out” isn’t an acceptable solution is second (slash third) base. There’s no justification for Tony Kemp being on the roster. While Jordan Westburg can play second and Ramón Urías can play third, the Orioles really seem to have grown out of Urías’ usefulness. Trying to hide Mateo at second to get him at-bats against lefties early might have ultimately proved to be justifiable. But there’s no argument for that continuing.
There is still time for the Orioles to make the decision to call up Jackson Holliday and qualify for the PPI program. Perhaps there is awkwardness (his father addressed that) about the decision, but if Holliday comes up before the Orioles clinch an extra season of control, it would make it hard to believe the original decision was ever about control. If he gets called up midweek before the two-week grace period ends, he could still net the Orioles an additional high draft pick and the Friday night series opener against Milwaukee could prove to be an electric sort of “second Opening Day.”
If the Orioles are truly committed to keeping Holliday down, it remains puzzling that they won’t give Connor Norby a shot. Norby has been playing left field this season to make room for Holliday to adjust at second. But he’s primarily been a second baseman to this point in his career and seems more than deserving of the opportunity.
It’s time for one of them to be the primary second baseman. The rest can “take care of itself.”
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