Spencer Schultz (@ravens4dummies on Twitter/X) has joined PressBox to share his favorite plays each day.
It’s Dinger Tuesday! Let’s look at some fun ones for the Orioles and around the league.
The Orioles face Red Sox righty Brayan Bello, who throws a three-pitch mix of sinkers, changeups and sliders. The slider is far and away Bello’s best pitch to left-handed hitters, with a 37.5% whiff rate and xBA of .141. However, the changeup and sinker have been hit hard, with xSLG of .529 and .465. Lefties have left the yard four times on the changeup alone. The Orioles have some lefty sluggers who mash those pitches:
Ryan O’Hearn to hit a home run +600.
O’Hearn has an xSLG over .500 against all three pitches and has particularly mashed sliders this season, hitting .375 with two home runs on sliders. The danger with O’Hearn is that he gets pulled for a defensive substitution scenario limiting his at bats, but at +600, he’s outstanding value.
Colton Cowser to hit a home run +560.
Cowser is two-for-two against Bello with two doubles and mashes sliders, hitting .423 with two home runs. He has struggled against sinkers and changeups this year, but has hard hit balls on both pitches in the last week and seems to be more confident in his approach.
Gunnar Henderson to hit a home run +400.
Henderson never gets longer odds, which seems questionable considering he’s hit out two sliders, three changeups, and hasn’t struggled against sinkers, hitting .250 with an xBA of .288. On a warm night in Baltimore, Henderson can pull anything over the short porch in right.
Aaron Judge to hit a home run +210.
Judge is on a tear and faces Angels starter Griffin Canning, who he has already taken yard in their first matchup. Canning throws a below-average 4-seam fastball, against which Judge is hitting .301 with nine homers. The rest of Canning’s arsenal isn’t special and Canning will likely avoid getting behind in the count against May’s hottest hitter.
Manny Machado to hit a home run +430.
Machado has two home runs in seven at bats against Jesus Luzardo and is due for positive regression against fastballs where his xSLG is 110 points higher than his actual SLG.
Fernando Tatis Jr. to hit a home run +380
Tatis is another strong fastball hitter due for positive regression.
Jazz Chisholm Jr. to hit a home run +420.
Chisolm has been having a quietly strong year and aligns well against Matt Waldron’s non-knuckleball mix.
Orioles Parlay of the Day: Gunnar Henderson to record a hit + Adley Rutschman to record a hit + Ryan O’Hearn to record a hit + Colton Cowser to record 2+ total bases + Grayson Rodriguez to record 7+ strikeouts + Orioles to score 4+ runs.
Photo Credit: Kenya Allen/PressBox
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