“Well, no one is actually ‘untouchable,’ it just depends what is being offered.”
The word “untouchable” comes up around this time every year in baseball cities. If teams are playing poorly, we phrase it in terms of which players teams absolutely can’t trade away for younger talent with more control. When teams are playing well, we phrase it in terms of which young players teams absolutely can’t trade away for proven veterans despite the desire to win now.
And the answer to the question “who is untouchable?” is, in every circumstance, the first sentence.
While the Orioles had a better week (4-3 against the Guardians and Rangers) than their previous week (2-4 against the Yankees and Astros), their pitching issues remain quite evident. Cole Irvin has allowed 17 earned runs across 18 innings in his last four starts. The bullpen pitched to a 5.13 ERA in the last two weeks.
Pitching is the need. It is inconceivable that it will not be addressed somehow, some way.
We’ve spent lots of time debating which arms might be available and might make sense for general manager Mike Elias and company to pursue. Whether we’re debating Garrett Crochet or Erick Fedde or Cal Quantrill or Tyler Anderson or a Jack Flaherty reunion or the dream of Tarik Skubal, we always wander into the “what’s the cost” part of the debate and essentially shrug emoji our way into changing topics.
That’s the difficulty of #TradeDeadlineSZN. There’s no possible way to know what a player might cost. The only trade evaluator is going to cost you money that simply isn’t worth paying for a hobby even sillier than extreme ironing, particularly since it is wildly speculative and borderline poppycock. (The trade machine’s analysis. Not extreme ironing. That’s very real and I’m looking to join a club.)
The truth is that with so many teams in the playoff race and society dealing with more elbow injuries than painful Hawk Tuah jokes, the cost of pitching will be quite significant. So the Orioles must consider what they might be willing to part ways with in order to acquire that pitching.
So who is untouchable? Remember, the correct answer is “no one” and that it depends on what is being acquired. But let’s sort through it a bit.
There are obvious statements to make. Corbin Burnes is going nowhere. Well other than “the f*cking bank, emmirite?” Same for Grayson Rodriguez. Self-explanatory. Craig Kimbrel isn’t being dealt even if the Orioles acquire someone they trust more as a closer. None of the other healthy bullpen arms are players that you’re terribly concerned about losing, but they’re also not terribly desirable to opposing teams so that’s that.
The other starters are in this same boat with MAYBE the exception of Cade Povich. The young left-hander isn’t “untouchable” at all, it’s just hard to imagine the scenario in which he’s dealt. He’s likely to be a bullpen arm by the postseason given his innings history. If another team is trading a prime position player prospect for a major starter, I guess it’s possible that team would like the Orioles to toss in a pitcher as well. It just seems like another team would be looking for someone whose clock hasn’t started yet.
Speaking of which, none of the pitching prospects are untouchable. No one has separated himself. Luis De León (3.59 ERA and 1.23 WHIP between Delmarva and Aberdeen at 21 years old) and Jackson Baumeister (2.60 ERA and 1.30 WHIP at Aberdeen and also 21) probably stand out the most, but let’s not kid ourselves into thinking any of these guys are off the table. That’s part of the conversation. High-level pitching prospects just aren’t in this system. The Orioles need pitching now and for the next few seasons to fortify what they’re doing. Every pitching prospect is available.
The reality is that while the Orioles might have to use pitching prospects to finish a deal, their depth of bats will create those deals. That’s really what we’re talking about here. And no one is truly “untouchable” except Adley Rutschman and Gunnar Henderson. They are, beyond any shadow of a doubt, untouchable. Definitively. I know it’s confusing because of my opening sentence but yeah, untouchable. Both of them.
There’s a logical fallacy to be asked about “what if the Dodgers offered Shohei Ohtani and they’re going to pick up all of that future money owed to him” and you guys, I just paid $45 to park and watch a baseball team lose 11-2 because a Chris Brown concert was going on at the same time. I’m far too exhausted to entertain this nonsense.
Jackson Holliday joins them. Don’t get me wrong, I’m willing to pause and shake my head a little bit when you go all “I know it sounds crazy but Skubal for Holliday straight up, are you really certain you wouldn’t at least consider it???”
The Orioles are just not trading away the top prospect in baseball for anything legitimate enough to continue the conversation. I realize Holliday has had an imperfect 2024. It’s just not worth the time.
Coby Mayo has reached untouchable status as well, again despite no one actually being untouchable. Just work with me. He’s too good, too close and too right-handed.
And then the other untouchable bats are … non-existent.
It seems like Samuel Basallo is the other popular name among “untouchable” prospects. And to be clear, this is where the “depends on what you’re acquiring” part of the equation becomes important. Trading Basallo for a middle-of-the-rotation starter (like Fedde) is more insane than the first guy that took his ironing board to the top of a mountain. But if you’re trying to land a big fish, another left-handed bat that won’t be here until at least midseason next year might be the type of price you have to pay when you’re trying to win the World Series now. The Orioles would need a high level arm with control. If the Tigers wanted Basallo-plus for Skubal, that’s a conversation I can have.
Everyone else slots in from there. Connor Norby has always seemed the most likely to be dealt because of the depth of infielders both in the bigs and still coming. Kyle Stowers similarly feels like a likely candidate given the Orioles’ collection of left-handed corner outfield types. But if another team’s desired piece was Heston Kjerstad or Colton Cowser instead, I’d be forced to consider it — again, depending on the prize.
And no, I didn’t put Jordan Westburg in that group, either. I absolutely cannot fathom Westburg being part of a deal. But with Mayo looking more and more like he might be able to stick it out at third base and Holliday seemingly penciled in at second still, if for some reason the singularly desired return for a game-changing arm was Westburg, I’m not slamming the phone down, either.
So that’s Burnes, Rodriguez, Henderson, Rutschman, Holliday and Mayo who are untouchable come hell or high Skubal. And “if it’s worth it” after that. And if the starters other than Burnes and Rodriguez continue to pitch how they’ve pitched the last couple of weeks, how we measure that worthiness might change dramatically.
Photo Credit: Cam Easton