Mike Elias has made many decisions during his time as Orioles general manager.
One of Elias’ strengths during that time has been that observers could largely describe his decision-making process as “measured.” The Orioles have a process and the team has largely stuck to that process. In the early years of Elias’ tenure, that process might have frustrated fans because it was deliberate and, in their eyes, tedious. But there was a plan and the club wasn’t going to recklessly deviate from it.
Even some of the “bigger” moves the team has made have been measured. The Corbin Burnes trade, while certainly significant, came at a price that made it nearly a no-brainer. It wouldn’t be accurate to say that Elias hasn’t had to make any bold decisions during his tenure. The 2022 trade deadline certainly stands out, as pressure to deviate from the plan might have prevented the team from dealing away Trey Mancini and Jorge López in favor of the likes of Yennier Cano, Cade Povich, Chayce McDermott and Seth Johnson.
But when the 2023 trade deadline came around, despite having taken over first place in the American League East, Elias and the Orioles again chose “measured” over “bold,” choosing to send the lesser package of César Prieto, Drew Rom and Zack Showalter to the Cardinals for Jack Flaherty (a move that didn’t work out) instead of paying a bigger price to land a more significant fish.
To be totally and completely fair to Elias, it is impossible to know where the decision-making line has been between “moves we’d like to make” and “moves we’re able to make given financial constraints.” But trades alone have not been the only circumstances by which we’ve seen this measured approach. During the 2024 season there have been multiple occasions where fans and analysts alike have believed it might be time for the team to either fully cut bait with or at least option a proven but struggling veteran (Austin Hays, Cedric Mullins and Ramón Urías stand out) in favor of highly-regarded prospects, but the team has been reluctant to rock the boat.
The chosen move has largely been the safer move. This isn’t a criticism. The team is sitting in first place and has the look of a World Series contender. Considering that, we might also say “the correct move has largely been the safer move.”
It’s also the context I continue to consider as we approach the 2024 trade deadline. I’ve considered writing a column that PressBox editor Luke Jackson could easily headline “Glenn Clark: Now Is The Time For Orioles To Make Bold Move” for weeks now. But the reality is … I don’t know that for sure.
The Orioles have been linked to the top starters (Detroit’s Tarik Skubal and Chicago’s Garrett Crochet) and the top closer (Oakland’s Mason Miller) believed to be on the trade market in the last week. SI’s Tom Verducci reported the Orioles’ interest in Skubal. The New York Post‘s Jon Heyman had the club in on the others. These reports are noteworthy because, should any of them come to fruition, they would almost certainly shed the Orioles’ reputation for avoiding the more dangerous decisions.
These types of trades would come at a heavy cost. The Orioles can’t “Kyle Stowers and Connor Norby” their way into acquiring All-Star pitchers with significant control remaining, with all respect to Stowers and Norby. Former MLB GM Jim Bowden had previously pointed out at The Athletic that the Orioles had acquired Burnes without paying a heavy price and might like to do the same to get pitching help at the deadline. That felt like the team’s M.O. This would be … not that.
Those prospects you’ve been describing as “untouchable” like Samuel Basallo, Jackson Holliday, Heston Kjerstad and Coby Mayo? Those are the guys the Orioles would have to move to land pitchers like Skubal, Crochet and Miller at the deadline. That’s the reality. And there’s no guarantee these moves work. Skubal is the AL Cy Young frontrunner right now but has already undergone Tommy John and flexor tendon surgeries. Crochet has been extraordinary but is well beyond his career high in innings. Miller has been an utter phenomenon, but given his insane velocity, it is difficult to imagine him not having an elbow issue in the not-so-distant future.
So is it worth it?
The easiest thing to say in response is that the Orioles haven’t won a World Series in 41 years and the opportunity is in front of them, so they should be willing to do anything necessary to fortify that. The more complicated thought is that the Orioles’ window likely isn’t closing anytime soon. While Burnes is likely gone after this season, their core of young talent will remain intact (and be fortified if they don’t trade their top prospects). With even reasonable spending, the Orioles should have a multi-year window to win championships.
The even more complicated thought is that many times we have been proven wrong about teams that appeared to have extended windows thanks to their young talent. The Cubs, with Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Javy Báez, Kyle Schwarber and Addison Russell (among others), were supposed to only be opening their title window when they won the World Series in 2016. That group never made it back to a Fall Classic. Gleyber Torres was a heavy price to pay to acquire Aroldis Chapman that year, but it most certainly paid off.
So again, is it worth it?
I offer a particularly mild “yes” before I close out this space. I don’t think Elias should empty the cupboard, but I believe the Orioles have the depth to both pay a heavy price for a significant pitcher under club control and continue to fortify their window in the coming seasons. I do think it is time to be bold.
I trust Elias to simultaneously be smart.
Photo Credit: Courtesy of the Baltimore Orioles