With so many betting options for the NFL season, we asked PressBox’s Stan “The Fan” Charles, Glenn Clark, Spencer Schultz and Joe Serpico and FantasyPros’ Ken Zalis to share some of their favorite futures bets for this season.
All numbers are from FanDuel Sportsbook in mid-August.
Stan “The Fan” Charles
Houston Texans Over 9.5 Wins (-150)
This franchise turned on a dime with the hiring of head coach DeMeco Ryans. The Texans were again correct in selecting quarterback C.J. Stroud with the No. 2 overall pick of the 2023 NFL Draft.
All Stroud did in his first season was take a so-so team to 10 wins. He threw for 4,108 yards on 63.9 percent passing. Stroud also had 23 touchdowns and only five interceptions.
Now the Texans add Stefon Diggs to the receiving corps and keep one of Stroud’s favorite targets in tight end Dalton Schultz.
On defense, Ryans has brought in his type of defenders. That will be an improved unit.
This is much closer to a 12-win team than a 9-win squad. I like the Texans to easily surpass 9.5 wins.
Philadelphia Eagles Over 10.5 Wins (-148)
The 2023 season was really a tale of two teams. The Eagles started 10-1 in the regular season but went 1-5 in their last six games. That rough stretch featured losses in their last two regular-season matchups (the Cardinals at home and the Giants on the road). Then in their lone playoff game, they got thumped badly by an improving Buccaneers team, 32-9.
Instead of relieving head coach Nick Sirianni of his duties, the Eagles decided to make major changes to his staff. Gone are Brian Johnson at offensive coordinator and Sean Desai at defensive coordinator. Former Cowboys offensive coordinator Kellen Moore and respected veteran defensive coordinator Vic Fangio are now on board.
Oh, did I mention that the Eagles signed Saquon Barkley away from the Giants? The word out of camp is that Jalen Hurts looks great.
I am putting my money on Sirianni figuring it out in tandem with the more experienced coordinators. The Eagles won 11 games a year ago, and the mojo looks significantly improved. I like them to bounce back with a solid 12-win season.
Baltimore Ravens Under 10.5 Wins (+100)
Since 2018, the Ravens have won 66 games, averaging out to a little more than 11 per year. Their total record in those six seasons is 66-33.
Lamar Jackson took over as the starting quarterback for the last seven regular-season games of 2018. He has started 77 regular-season games since taking over. The Ravens are 58-19 in those games, a 75.2 winning percentage.
In picking the Ravens to win 10 or fewer games, I seem to be bucking the odds a good bit. I don’t quite see it that way. Sure, I think the Ravens are probably a playoff team, but I see them much closer to being a 9- or 10-win team than 11 or 12.
It’s not a question of being excessively down on Jackson, but I do feel he is more unique than he is great. Until I see him throw a deep ball consistently enough that teams have to defend against it, I certainly don’t like him in playoff games.
Additionally, the Ravens have to replace three starting offensive linemen in guards Kevin Zeitler and John Simpson and right tackle Morgan Moses. I also think, until I see the unit in action without Jadeveon Clowney, Patrick Queen and Geno Stone, that the defense will be worse than it was last season.
I see the Browns, Bengals and Steelers being better as well. When games are this hotly contested, the quality of in-game coaching decisions comes into play.
I see the Ravens just missing that 10.5 number, but not necessarily the playoffs.
Glenn Clark
Lamar Jackson To Win Regular-Season MVP (+1500)
I have no idea if Lamar Jackson will be MVP again this season. Truth be told, I’m on the C.J. Stroud bandwagon and will hold that ticket (+1000) for sure. But what I’m really saying is that it is absolutely comical for a player who has been MVP in two-thirds of his healthy seasons to be the sixth choice to win MVP. You have to hold this ticket. It would be reckless not to do so.
Las Vegas Raiders Under 6.5 Wins (+112)
Most of the win total bets I like this season don’t have any juice. I realize 6.5 is such a small number, but I still can’t believe the over is the favorite. They don’t have a quarterback. Maxx Crosby is very good! But they don’t have a quarterback! I can’t get over how the Raiders knew going into the offseason that they had to address quarterback and they just decided against doing so.
Baltimore Ravens To Score 1+ Rushing Touchdown In Every Regular-Season Game (+2800)
I just absolutely have to hold this ticket. Will it hit? Probably not! But the Ravens ran for at least one touchdown in 14 of 17 regular-season games a year ago. The other three were the London game, the overtime win against the Rams and the Week 18 game against the Steelers when they weren’t really trying. That was without Derrick Henry! (If you don’t have the stomach, they’re -115 to score 1+ touchdown in every game. I’d play that, too.)
Atlanta Falcons To Miss Playoffs (+148)
I get it. They have lots of nice pieces and the division is bad. It all makes sense. Still, I’m not crazy about their defense. Additionally, the Saints and Buccaneers don’t seem far enough behind the Falcons to warrant this being plus money. And if Kirk Cousins struggles or the team loses a few games, a full-on quarterback controversy could break out. It feels like a low-key recipe for disaster.
Spencer Schultz
Jayden Reed Over 4.5 Receiving Touchdowns (-126)
Reed is an explosive playmaker who scored 10 times as a rookie once Packers head coach Matt LaFleur’s offense finally clicked. His usage as a runner, in the screen game and after the catch will lead to five receiving touchdowns before Thanksgiving.
Jahmyr Gibbs Over 7.5 Rushing Touchdowns (-112)
Like Reed, Gibbs crossed this mark handily as a rookie and will continue to get rushing lanes in Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson’s system behind a stalwart offensive line. Gibbs has explosive speed and forces missed tackles. As such, he can score from anywhere, not just the red zone. David Montgomery is a strong goal-line back, but his touches will diminish with age. His ability to stay healthy is in question as well.
Lamar Jackson Over 3,275.5 Passing Yards (-112)
In Year 2 of Todd Monken’s offense, the Ravens will continue to utilize more quick game to alleviate wear and tear on their star quarterback. It’s unlikely the defense will be as dominant as the unit was in 2023 with a new coordinator. That will lead to more neutral and negative game scripts, thus more passing attempts and yards.
More Picks From Spencer:
Jared Goff over 4,000 passing yards
Lamar Jackson over 22.5 passing touchdowns
Anthony Richardson over 7.5 rushing touchdowns
Derrick Henry over 9.5 rushing touchdowns
DeVonta Smith over 975.5 receiving yards
Diontae Johnson over 765.5 receiving yards
Zay Flowers over 875.5 receiving yards, over 5.5 touchdowns
David Njoku over 4.5 receiving touchdowns
Arizona Cardinals over 7.5 wins
Malik Nabers most rookie receiving yards
Washington Commanders over 6.5 wins
Parlay: 49ers, Chiefs, Ravens, Lions, Eagles to make playoffs
Joe Serpico
Patrick Mahomes Over 4,500 Passing Yards (+195)
Mahomes failed to hit this mark last season but has eclipsed 4,500 yards in four of the six seasons he’s been the Chiefs’ starter. Had Mahomes played the final week of the regular season a year ago, he likely would have topped that mark for the fourth straight season. With two 5,000-yard seasons already on his resume, it makes too much sense to bet on the best quarterback in the league to go over this number.
Saquon Barkley Over 1,000 Rushing Yards (-115)
Barkley just missed this milestone last season, racking up 962 yards in 14 games of action, and the Eagles have one of the league’s easiest schedules in 2024. Going from one of the league’s worst offensive lines to one of the best should return Barkley to the 1,000-yard club, which he’s done three times in his career.
Jacksonville Jaguars To Make Playoffs (+124)
I was tempted to pick the Jaguars to win the AFC South at +270, but I’ll go with the safer bet to just make the playoffs. Many felt the Jaguars would win the division with ease last year with Trevor Lawrence entering his third season, but the Texans shocked us all by winning the division with a rookie quarterback. Jacksonville just missed out on the final playoff spot last year after losing five of its last six games. We were a year ahead of the Jaguars’ time to shine.
Ken Zalis
Malik Nabers Under 875.5 Receiving Yards (-112)
Does Daniel Jones stay healthy? Did the offensive line improve? Is there more than one football? I could answer no to all, so I don’t see it on the yardage.
Detroit Lions To Win NFC North (+130)
This is an easy division to win. I trust Dan Campbell. The defense is improved.
Pittsburgh Steelers Over 8.5 Wins (+116)
Seventeen consecutive non-losing seasons, so nine wins continues that trend.
Los Angeles Chargers Under 8.5 Wins (+118)
Justin Herbert was already dealing with a foot issue by early August. The wide receiver group is a question mark. Other teams in the division seemed to have improved more.
Photo Credits: Kenya Allen/PressBox
Issue 288: August/September 2024
Originally published Aug. 14, 2024