With price tags going up as fast as pitchers go down, baseball has reached a crossroads with one of the game’s most controversial albeit unofficial statistics. Which raises a logical question.
Has the quantity of Quality Starts become more important than the quality of the quantity? If you follow the bouncing ball, you’ll discover that it’s not just a tongue twister. What you will find is that MLB has, for lack of a better term, the equivalent of a Pitching Pandemic.
The so-called QS, which at its minimum requires six innings with no more than three earned runs allowed, is an unofficial statistic that nevertheless has become dominant in today’s game. In effect it has created a two-headed monster that has resulted in what practically amounts to term limits — the six-inning starter and one-inning reliever.
Whether the industry wants to admit it or not, it has also produced salaries as high as $40 million (or more) for elite starters — and Tommy John surgery rates for all types that rose to an all-time high of 35.3 percent last year (from an already uncomfortable 25.9 percent in 2017). It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to notice that not even the “elite” pitchers average much more than six innings.
Since a pitcher’s individual “W” has virtually been decertified, the number of QS (I’m anointing that as an acceptable term) has become an agent’s dream, a negotiating tool for the ages. In a perfect scenario, of course, a pitcher qualifies for both. But there is no question that the sixth inning is the first leg of a four-man relay much more often than not — and there is more than enough analytic evidence to support that line of thought.
In effect, this monster has established another version of the four-man rotation — for any given game, not week. Which in turn leads to a dilemma for those who like to back up their knowledge with a wager — and a question for the brokers who handle those investments. Given how invested baseball has become in the gaming industry, how long will it be before we see an “over-under” line for the number of pitchers used in any given game?
You think I’m kidding? You’ll be shocked to know the number would be very similar to the one you see on how many runs in any contest. I’ve been clocking this long enough to know that a game is more likely to produce 10 pitchers than six, and that each team is more likely to use five pitchers in a win than it is to use three.
If that sounds astounding it should, but the numbers support it. When you go to an MLB game this year (and don’t even ask about the minor leagues, where five innings is max effort), you are almost guaranteed to see at least eight pitchers, most times at least four for each team. Given those figures and considering MLB now allows only 13 pitchers on the 26-man roster, it’s easy to conclude the numbers are not sustainable throughout a 162-game schedule for any team, even those blessed with an “elite” pitcher at the top of the rotation.
I’d like to note a couple of specific games that took place during this research. River Ryan, a promising left-handed pitcher with the Los Angeles Dodgers, broke into the big leagues with two outings that went five-plus innings each, allowing one run. He had never thrown more than 75 pitches, nor pitched beyond the fifth inning as a professional (he made it to 77 on his second start). He’s 25 years old. Hopefully he’ll be allowed to throw 100 pitches in a game before he’s 31, after which he’ll be a free agent.
On the same day that Ryan made his second start, Blake Snell pitched a no-hitter for the San Francisco Giants, throwing 116 pitches, one below his career high. Just imagine — Blake Snell, the poster boy for six-inning starts (see World Series, Game 6, 2020) not only pitched a no-hit shutout, he actually logged the first complete game of his career.
Pitching a no-hitter is about the only way a pitcher can complete what he started these days. Kind of like facing the lineup for a third time — the only way to do it and last beyond the sixth inning is to be perfect, six up and six down.
I have a suggestion for MLB — “Let the Kids Pitch” might make for a nice slogan. But I digress, back to the original subject.
For obvious reasons — proximity plus success the last two years — I initially used the Orioles as my “typical” MLB team while tracking the trend this year, and found the O’s average usage was actually a little lower than I suspected, 4.3 pitchers through the first 112 games. Not surprisingly, that number rose to 4.5 for wins and dropped to 4.1 for losses, the difference attributable to high-leverage situations.
One team is not a sufficient sample size, so since they’ve been running 1-2 with the O’s all year, the Yankees seemed like a reasonable comparison. The results were about as close as the AL East race. I didn’t break down the win-loss ratio, but I’m betting they were similar since the Yankees averaged 4.2 pitchers through 112 games.
As a comparison to the AL East leaders, I decided to use Seattle’s pitching staff, first in ERA and WHIP (walks plus hits per inning pitched) and it was a convincer for me. The Mariners averaged 4.1 pitchers through 112 games, so I limited myself to one more comparison.
Taking it a step further, a recap of games on Aug. 3 was a strong enough indication for me that an average of four pitchers per game for each team is on the low side. Of the 15 games that day, only five of the 30 teams used three pitchers (none had fewer). The average per game was 9.06, and per team, 4.5. The fewest number of pitchers in a game was seven (three times), while the number hit double digits six times.
One day out of six months, but my guess is that 8.5 might be a pretty good over-under line any day of the year, just in case any of those baseball investment sites want my opinion. And don’t be surprised if in the near future the betting lines list the pitchers unavailable for each game. I can’t imagine the reaction of managers to that one.
Meanwhile, give me the over and let it ride.
Jim Henneman can be contacted at JimH@pressboxonline.com.
Photo Credit: Kenya Allen/PressBox
Issue 288: August/September 2024
Originally published Aug. 14, 2024