I did this last season and my No. 12 team was, you guessed it, the Texas Rangers. What do you say we try it again and I simply do a better job?
Let me give myself a bit of a cop-out to start. This year marks my toughest season yet of doing power rankings. The difference between these 12 teams is ridiculously small. The Dodgers won 98 games, the most of any team. The Tigers and Royals won the fewest (86). That’s only a 12-win spread across 162 games.
There’s a lot to like about all 12 teams, but they also all have flaws. A few teams seem to have little chance to win the World Series, but I can’t name one club that cannot prevail if it plays its best ball this month.
My end-of-season power rankings were published on Sept. 30, but these rankings are about which teams I think have the best chance to win the World Series with how baseball is played in October. The final regular-season rankings for each team are in parentheses.
1. Philadelphia Phillies (95-67, No. 3)
For much of the season, the Phillies were the best team in baseball. We all know they have Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola at the top of their rotation. Ranger Suárez was 10-1 with a 1.95 ERA and 0.88 WHIP through 15 starts. Since then, he has spent time on the IL with a back issue and gone 2-7 with a 6.17 ERA and 1.69 WHIP. While the offense is very solid, don’t forget about what the Phillies can do on the base paths. They stole 148 bases, tied for fifth in the majors.
2. New York Yankees (94-68, No. 4)
Like the Phillies, they mowed through much of the first 10 weeks (without Gerrit Cole). Luis Gil, Marcus Stroman, Clarke Schmidt and Carlos Rodón led the way for the rotation. The offense was also humming along with Aaron Judge and Juan Soto. Then Stroman flamed out, Gil hit a wall and Schmidt missed three months. Cole wasn’t great out of the gate upon returning, but he’s been pretty super of late. Gil has come on strong. Schmidt has pitched well since returning.
3. San Diego Padres (93-69, No. 2)
The Padres are perhaps the best balanced team in the sport. Since starting 41-41, they’ve gone 52-28. They were without Fernando Tatis Jr. and Yu Darvish for much of that time. Manager Mike Shildt has Tatis back in right field, while Darvish is going to start the playoffs in a bullpen role.
4. Los Angeles Dodgers (98-64, No. 1)
The Dodgers again have the most wins in baseball after holding off furious second-half chases by San Diego and Arizona. So why drop them back to fourth here? While they can smother you with a lot of bats and bullpen arms, who knows who can succeed in an October rotation? They recently got Yoshinobu Yamamoto back, but he isn’t really locked in yet. Jack Flaherty can bring the heat and he was a solid deadline addition. Walker Buehler? Clayton Kershaw? Tyler Glasnow? Perhaps they can outpunch their suspect rotation.
5. Baltimore Orioles (91-71, No. 5)
The losses the Orioles suffered during the regular season didn’t all make it back in time for October baseball, but Jordan Westburg, Ryan Mountcastle and Ramón Urías give the lineup a much more dynamic feel. I think they can and will beat the Royals, and folks, that would be progress. If Adley Rutschman and Ryan O’Hearn hit, they have a puncher’s chance to go deeper.
6. Houston Astros (88-73, No. 8)
The question: How is Yordan Alvarez going to be able to perform? With Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Kyle Tucker, Jeremy Peña and Alvarez, the Astros can play with anyone. Here’s hoping Justin Verlander doesn’t embarrass himself on his way out. Never underestimate him, but Father Time is undefeated.
7. New York Mets (89-73, No. 11)
At one point, the Mets ranked No. 25 in my power rankings and were 28-36. The Mets went 61-37 from that point on. Trust me, this team will be a huge factor next season, as the combination of Steve Cohen’s very deep pockets and the wisdom of David Stearns will make the Mets a very serious factor for a number of years. This seems like a tough spot against the Brewers, who went 5-1 against the Mets this year.
8. Milwaukee Brewers (93-69, No. 6)
The Brewers’ 93 wins don’t fully show how great a job first-year skipper Pat Murphy has done. They lost the great Christian Yelich for good shortly after the All-Star Game. While he attempted to rehab his back issue, he announced in mid-August that he needed surgery. The shame was that Yelich was having his best season in four or five years. They’ll be a tough out, but the Brewers don’t have enough offensive firepower for me. They stole 217 bases this year, most of any team in this postseason.
9. Atlanta Braves (89-73, No. 9)
The Braves probably would have been ranked No. 7 if Chris Sale was a go, but with such sketchy information about his availability, here they are. (If Sale is out for the entire postseason, they’re No. 12.) Brian Snitker must have some mojo in this clubhouse, because with injuries to Ronald Acuña Jr., Spencer Strider and Austin Riley, the Braves could have folded. There’s a lot of character in this clubhouse.
10. Cleveland Guardians (92-69, No. 7)
I’ll say this: If there is one team I may be miscalculating, it’s these guys. First-year manager Stephen Vogt has gotten so much out of this squad. If they get a few timely hits, the Guardians’ incredible relief pitching could even the playing field. A team batting average of .238 and an on-base of .307 don’t leave me with a lot of belief they can pull anything off.
11. Detroit Tigers (86-76, No. 10)
The Tigers are led by presumptive American League Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal, who is awfully tough in a short series. I know the Tigers went 31-13 to end the regular season, but there is no running away from ranking 18th in the majors in runs scored. A team batting average of .234 and an on-base of .300 don’t give me much confidence that they’ll play up this high.
12. Kansas City Royals (86-76, No. 13)
The Royals remind me a lot of the 2022 Orioles, who made a brief flirtation with the postseason that year. In fact, I’ll say the Royals are a good bit better than the ’22 O’s, but they don’t appear to me to be ready to play at this height yet. Their top three in the rotation — Cole Ragans, Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha — are all solid. The bullpen beyond closer Lucas Erceg is not intimidating to me. They do get Vinnie Pasquantino and his 97 RBIs back from a broken thumb. They can run and that can hurt the O’s.
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