Don’t get lost in anything else I say in this column. The 2024 Maryland football season will go down as a disappointment. From a pass/fail standpoint, it was a failure. No reasonable human expected Maryland to compete to win the Big Ten. But even what could fairly be viewed as a bridge season between the Terps’ last “franchise” quarterback (Taulia Tagovailoa) and who they hope will be their next (Archbishop Spalding superstar Malik Washington), coming up short of bowl eligibility is a failure.
There are plenty of potential explanations. The defense proved to be a significant disappointment. The offensive line looked overmatched again. After a strong start to the season, Billy Edwards Jr. took steps backward. Competitive games at home against beatable teams all went sideways.
Why it happened isn’t nearly as important as what happens next. It was a lost season for Maryland football. As is the case whenever anyone in this area loses at anything, it leads to the inevitable question fans always ask: “Can we fire the coach?”
And yeah, I get it.
With a trip to Penn State on the way, Locksley sits at 33-40 for his Maryland tenure and 5-16 in November games. The late-season struggles of his teams have become prominent social media fodder. Competing at the top of the Big Ten has always seemed unlikely, but suffering double-digit home losses to three teams (Rutgers, Iowa, Northwestern) that enter the final week of the season with a combined 17-16 record feels like getting lapped by the field.
So yeah, I get the questions. But no, Michael Locksley (to my understanding) is not on the proverbial hot seat. And no, he shouldn’t be, either.
There are two separate reasons why Locksley shouldn’t be on the hot seat. The first is matter of fact. The 2021-2023 seasons marked the most fruitful three-year stretch for Maryland football since 2006-2008 under Ralph Friedgen and produced the first stretch of three straight bowl wins in … ever. As disappointing as this year has been, one losing season does not erase an overall positive trajectory.
Of course, that comes with the qualifier of an exceptionally low bar. But that’s the reality of Maryland football. The bar is exceptionally low.
And that’s the second reason why Locksley shouldn’t be on the hot seat. It’s the unspoken reason. This will sound dark and cynical to some, but to anyone who pays attention to college football, you understand the reality. Maryland is not in the “haves” of college football. And if you’re not in the “haves,” this is your reality.
Sure, Curt Cignetti has made it look like a have-not is allowed to jump out and join the haves from time to time. It had been a magical year at Indiana until the Hoosiers ran into the wrong “have.” (To be fair, Michigan is also a “have.” The Wolverines are just caught up in an extraordinary circumstance this season.)
It is certainly possible that Cignetti will serve out his new contract at Indiana and find more success. It feels just as likely that he’ll either struggle and/or depart for greener pastures when he gets the opportunity because sustaining football success at Indiana is just not likely.
Maryland isn’t competing on a level playing field. There was hope that NIL could be an equalizer, but it has instead deepened the divide. Some programs have an institutional advantage. Their support and resources are deep. Those programs can pay for proven starters in the transfer market to sustain their ability to compete from year to year.
Maryland doesn’t enjoy such a luxury … or anything close to that. According to Armen Keteyian and John Talty’s book “The Price,” Maryland is working with a talent budget near the bottom of the Big Ten, in the neighborhood of $2.5 million, while the teams at the top of the league have salary budgets between $10 million and $15 million. Changing head coaches wouldn’t change that reality. It would be a never-ending search for a Cignetti-like lottery ticket. Again, if you’re taking bets on whether Cignetti will ever win the Big Ten as coach at Indiana, I will bet overwhelmingly on “no” regardless of how unfavorable the odds are.
Maryland football isn’t competing for national championships or even Big Ten titles. Ironically, an argument could be made that the Terps would be better off in the ACC right now because an Arizona State-like season would be on the table. In that scenario, the league just happens to be mid enough for Maryland steal a spot in the College Football Playoff at some point. That’s obviously not happening … and it would be problematic whenever we get around to the inevitable Big Ten/SEC super-conference spin-off!
The reality for Maryland is to compete for … whatever it can get. The hope is that Washington will prove to be as good as advertised starting as a freshman, allowing the program to close the gap on those middle-of-the-pack Big Ten teams.
Locksley, a man who wants the job and is somehow landing players of Washington’s caliber despite having far less to work with monetarily, is literally the best man for this specific job.
That doesn’t mean this season hasn’t been a failure. Both things can be true. And it doesn’t mean that he’s earned emeritus status either. He has to prove Washington can be a difference-maker early on. If that’s the case, the school will have to figure out how to keep the quarterback. But that would be a good problem to have, at least in context.
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