You guys care way more about this than I do.
The Ravens beat the Steelers in Week 16. It was both an emphatic 17-point win on the scoreboard and one of the most uplifting victories in recent memory given the Ravens’ extraordinarily strange circumstances against the Steelers in recent years. This was a great win, plain and simple.
Lamar Jackson was really good. He wasn’t perfect. He threw a bad interception, albeit the first bad interception he’s thrown all season. But he was very efficient and responsible for three touchdowns. He has already thrown for the most single-season yards of his already historic career. He is greatness personified.
Just a day later, Bills quarterback Josh Allen was particularly pedestrian. He finished 16 of 29 for 154 yards with one touchdown and one interception while adding just 30 more yards on the ground in a lackluster 24-21 win against the lowly Patriots.
All of a sudden, the internet is abuzz that perhaps the MVP race isn’t quite as settled as it appeared to be coming into the weekend. The oddsmakers hadn’t significantly shifted things by the time I typed these words, but the discourse exists.
Allow me to micro/macro this for a second as I am wont to do. Micro: I think Lamar Jackson is the most valuable player in the National Football League every time he steps on a field. Because he’s stepped on a field this season, I think he’s been the Most Valuable Player this season. I think he’s one of the most unique talents in the history of football. He continues to thrive.
I also think Josh Allen is a tremendous, arguably generational talent. I think the quartet of AFC quarterbacks (including Patrick Mahomes and Joe Burrow) may well be even better than the golden era of Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Ben Roethlisberger and Philip Rivers in the conference.
Since this is still the “micro,” I don’t want to belabor this. Most of the raw statistics this season favor Jackson over Allen, as you likely know from that meme your aunt shared on the family chat when you were just trying to figure out what the spending limit was for the white elephant exchange. However, more of the advanced statistics (QBR, EPA, PAA, RAW QBR) favor Allen at this point.
Perhaps Allen shouldn’t be the “slam dunk” choice that many have suggested he is, but there is a strong argument that he should win the award. Ironically, Allen has made a greater difference as a rusher this season than Jackson. But that’s part of being a quarterback, as no one knows better than we do in Baltimore.
The macro? The macro was the lede. I just don’t care about this topic the way a great many of you all do. I don’t think it’s the most consequential decision of our lives since that last most consequential decision of our lives. I don’t think Allen winning MVP would be akin to Bartolo Colon winning the 2005 AL Cy Young Award because he had 21 wins despite Johan Santana being almost wildly better.
The MVP race tends to be narrative-driven, and Allen having not won one previously is a significant narrative. So is the likelihood that the Bills will finish with a better record than the Ravens.
Beyond being narrative-driven, MVP has in modern years been more of a horse race. By virtue of his performances in wins against the top two teams in the league (the Chiefs and Lions), Allen took the lead in the race. Once a horse takes the lead, they have to truly stumble or another horse has to have an unbelievable, incredible stretch run in order to overtake them.
While Allen’s performance against the Patriots was forgettable, the Bills righted the ship in the second half. Had Allen contributed significantly to a loss, the door would likely be totally ajar. If Jackson had put together a 400-yard, five-touchdown effort against the Steelers, perhaps the race would be truly neck and neck.
And perhaps these things could still happen in the final two weeks!
But if they don’t, so be it. I mean it. Yes, it might matter in 30 years when we reflect on the measurement of one of these quarterbacks against another. But Lamar Jackson doesn’t need another MVP award to solidify his legacy.
He DOES need a Super Bowl. He’s a future Pro Football Hall of Famer with or without one, but Super Bowls are how we measure great quarterbacks against each other. He needs that. The Ravens took a big step toward that against the Steelers.
Photo Credit: Kenya Allen/PressBox