There are more than a few parallels to 2012.
A Ravens team entering the playoffs a year removed from a devastating AFC championship game loss? Check.
A team that has regularly been in the playoffs but has fallen short of the Super Bowl, leaving observers questioning whether it is capable of getting over the hump? Check.
A maligned quarterback who constantly wins but yet still deals with questions about just how elite he really is? Check.
An adventurous, up-and-down regular season where it looks like things might be coming unglued only to rally to clinch the AFC North late? Check.
An offensive player discarded by a previous organization proving to still be an absolute game-changer in purple? Check.
A playoff path that would involve some of the most significant storylines the organization could face and a potential AFC championship game rematch? Check.
And yes, it’s exactly 12 years removed from the last Super Bowl win. Between that and the 12 wins the team recorded this season, there’s some pretty significant symbolism as the team continues to honor No. 12 Jacoby Jones, a critical part of that 2012 championship team.
But as we know, stories that look good enough to be movies don’t always have happy endings.
The Ravens are either going to author one of the most poetic postseason runs in modern history … or they’re going to spend another year facing questions about whether they’ll ever break through and win the big one. Those are the options. Well … I guess the Broncos could beat the Bills and the Texans could beat the Chiefs and it could be one of the least poetic Super Bowl runs ever, but the likelihood of that is even slimmer than your one friend who takes New Year’s resolutions entirely too seriously.
On our final “Project Gameday” postgame show of the regular season, I asked our panel how confident they were going into the postseason. I don’t think the flip from the Chargers to the Steelers as the Ravens’ wild-card opponent changes my opinion much. Yes, the Ravens have had a strange recent history against the Steelers. But the majority of the strange has come in Pittsburgh. Lamar Jackson has never lost a game to the Steelers in Baltimore when fans have filled the stands. (He’s 1-0. It’s the one that happened two weeks ago.)
But that’s enough of a point. If the wild-card game were in Pittsburgh, I’d be genuinely concerned about “voodoo” or “black magic” or whatever. I think the Ravens will badly miss Zay Flowers if he doesn’t play, but I think they’re notably better than the Steelers and should handle business in what should be a fairly normal football game in Baltimore.
More generally, I’m confident that this is a really good football team that is rising at just the right time. I believe the Ravens are better for how battle-tested they are. I think suffering disappointing losses and having to regroup has hardened them. I think their defensive turnaround has been astounding.
But I have concerns. Flowers’ status is noteworthy. I believe the Ravens have enough pass-catchers (particularly given their depth at tight end) that it doesn’t immediately doom them if he misses games, but that will be seriously tested against a still capable Steelers defense in particular.
The win against the Browns provided reminders that penalties are still a concern and, for as well as their offensive line has come together at times this season, there remains a dramatic difference between the Ravens’ unit and, say, the Lions’ offensive line. T.J. Watt wasn’t fully healthy for the Ravens’ Week 16 win against Pittsburgh. If he’s 100 percent for the playoff rematch, I’ll feel uneasy. Brandon Stephens made a nice play to prevent a touchdown in the regular-season finale, but there’s going to be a sinking feeling in our stomachs every time he’s matched up with a capable receiver.
And while Justin Tucker made all three of his field goal attempts after the bye, that’s a very small sample size. I hope beyond hope that he has worked out his issues, but the concern is still in the back of my mind.
Still, this is a very good football team. Extremely good. You know the details. The first team to throw for 4,000 yards and rush for 3,000 yards in a single season in NFL history. Wins against every other AFC playoff team except the Chiefs (thanks to a toenail). The No. 1 scoring defense, total defense and pass defense since making personnel changes in Week 11.
There should be extraordinary confidence in this football team.
But, you know, the playoff history. It’s as much of a weight as the Ravens allow it to be. There’s no way for us to use it in a predictive fashion. Perhaps it will be a burden for them. Or perhaps it will be a driving force for them. But it’s hard to ignore.
And then there’s the reality that the road would likely take the Ravens to Buffalo and to Kansas City. It’s a treacherous path … and eerily similar to having to go on the road to face Peyton Manning and Tom Brady 12 years ago.
The Chiefs are the deserving favorites. They’re the team to beat, plain and simple. They’ve won the Super Bowl three of the past five years. They have the No. 1 seed. They’ve gotten healthier. They have a deeper group of pass-catchers than when they won the Super Bowl a year ago. And no team in football history has better handled “the moment” than they have. They are not going to conspire in their demise. You will have to be essentially perfect.
But I truly believe the Ravens have a chance. And what a story it would be.
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