I’ve done this most years going into the postseason. In lieu of full power rankings, I’ll rank the head coaches and quarterbacks participating in the playoffs and then rank the 14 teams based on their likelihood to win the Super Bowl. Then I’ll share with you how I voted for the Pro Football Writers of America’s (PFWA) major awards.
Coaches:
14. DeMeco Ryans
13. Todd Bowles
12. Nick Sirianni
11. Matt LaFleur
10. Kevin O’Connell
9. Dan Quinn
8. Sean McDermott
7. Jim Harbaugh
6. Sean Payton
5. Sean McVay
4. John Harbaugh
3. Dan Campbell
2. Mike Tomlin
1. Andy Reid
The top six are all Super Bowl winners with the exception of Campbell, who just seems to have such an incredible grasp of and rapport with his team. I continue to believe in Tomlin despite how his teams have folded late in the season. He makes chicken salad out of the other thing.
Quarterbacks:
14. C.J. Stroud
13. Sam Darnold
12. Bo Nix
11. Russell Wilson
10. Baker Mayfield
9. Jalen Hurts
8. Jordan Love
7. Jared Goff
6. Justin Herbert
5. Matthew Stafford
4. Jayden Daniels
3. Josh Allen
2. Lamar Jackson
1. Patrick Mahomes
I recognize the season Darnold has put together. I think that success has as much to do with who he’s working with as it does a true renaissance for him. Darnold has basically been as good as Kirk Cousins was in a similar situation. And while the MVP race will come down to Jackson and Allen, Mahomes is still Mahomes. He remains atop this list until proven otherwise.
Likelihood of Winning Super Bowl:
14. Houston Texans
13. Denver Broncos
12. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
11. Pittsburgh Steelers
10. Washington Commanders
9. Los Angeles Chargers
8. Minnesota Vikings
7. Green Bay Packers
6. Los Angeles Rams
5. Detroit Lions
4. Buffalo Bills
3. Baltimore Ravens
2. Philadelphia Eagles
1. Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs are the most unflappable team perhaps in NFL history. They’re not going to conspire to help you. They deserve to be the favorites coming into the postseason. I actually think they have a more threatening group of offensive skill position players this year than they did last year when they won the Super Bowl, although their offensive line isn’t as good. The Eagles still haven’t lost a game with both Jalen Hurts and A.J. Brown on the field this season. Hurts is going to make some head-scratching throws, but the Eagles remain the most dynamic team on both sides of the ball.
And now, here is how I voted for the 2024 PFWA major awards. I’ll start with the ones you care a bit less about.
Assistant Coach of the Year: Aaron Glenn
Executive of the Year: Brad Holmes
Coach of the Year: Dan Quinn
Most Improved Player of the Year: Sam Darnold
Comeback Player of the Year: Joe Burrow
Defensive Rookie of the Year: Jared Verse
Offensive Rookie of the Year and Rookie of the Year: Jayden Daniels
Defensive Player of the Year: Trey Hendrickson
Offensive Player of the Year: Saquon Barkley
I recognize that Myles Garrett may well be the choice for Defensive Player of the Year given that he was exceptional again. But 17.5 sacks are just so hard for me to argue with, making Hendrickson my choice. I considered giving my Offensive Player of the Year vote to my MVP runner-up but it seems like this award exists for non-quarterbacks, so I stuck with Barkley.
MVP: Lamar Jackson
I’ve said a few times that I’ve made peace with the belief that Josh Allen will the AP version of this award. I just think that between reasonable arguments (he was the only quarterback to beat both the Chiefs and Lions this season) and illogical (Jackson has won two already, Jackson has Derrick Henry), the winds will blow in Allen’s favor. I do not think there is a compelling argument for either Joe Burrow or Saquon Barkley to receive any first-place votes, but I believe they will.
Jackson’s unparalleled ability to make plays off script (Allen is of course a very capable runner but no one creates like Jackson) defines the words “most valuable” to me. But it’s far more noteworthy to me that he leads all quarterbacks in the QBR and RAW ratings for ESPN and was PFF’s highest-graded quarterback of the year. (He also finished above Allen, albeit behind Burrow, in the points-driven PAA and EPA stats.) The data confirms what my eyes have told me. He’s the most valuable and significant player in the NFL.
ALL-NFL TEAM
SPECIAL TEAMS
Kicker: Chris Boswell
Punter: Michael Dickson
Kick Returner: KaVontae Turpin
Punt Returner: Kalif Raymond
Special Teamer: J.T. Gray
DEFENSE
Defensive Ends: Maxx Crosby, Micah Parsons
Defensive Tackles: Cam Heyward, Chris Jones
Outside Linebackers: Trey Hendrickson, Myles Garrett
Inside Linebacker: Zack Baun
Cornerbacks: Trent McDuffie, Marlon Humphrey
Safeties: Kyle Hamilton, Kerby Joseph
OFFENSE
Quarterback: Lamar Jackson
Running Backs: Saquon Barkley, Derrick Henry
Wide Receivers: Ja’Marr Chase, Justin Jefferson
Tight End: Brock Bowers
Center: Frank Ragnow
Guards: Quenton Nelson, Joe Thuney
Offensive Tackles: Rashawn Slater, Lane Johnson
Photo Credits: Kenya Allen/PressBox