Spencer Schultz (@ravens4dummies on Twitter/X) has joined PressBox to share his favorite plays each day.
Dallas Goedert 50+ receiving yards.
The Chiefs are 29th in receiving yards per game allowed to tight ends. They simply don’t mind getting hurt by them in lieu of primary receivers. Goedert has crossed this mark in 6 of 9 playoff games.
DeVonta Smith to record a 20+ yard reception. DeVonta Smith to record a 30+ yard reception.
The fourth year standout has produced a reception of 20+ yards in 10 of 17 games this season. Smith has recorded a reception of 30+ yards in all three of his career matchups against the Chiefs, who struggle to defend slot receivers and tight ends. Playing a Smith receiving ladder up to 80+ yards is also a strong value play, as Smith hasn’t had under 90 yards against the Chiefs. Smith is also 5/1 to have the most receiving yards today, which is fantastic value especially with a profit boost.
Jalen Hurts anytime touchdown.
The Chiefs’ stout run defense will end in at least one goal to go tush push scenario.
Patrick Mahomes over 40 4th quarter passing yards laddered up to over 80.
If you see this game start slow and Mahomes’ total line gets lower towards 225 yards, hammer it. These teams will feel each other out and the Eagles will throw the kitchen sink at the Chiefs to play with a lead. Mahomes typically does the most damage in the 2nd quarter, with 1,413 passing yards and 12 passing touchdowns. In the other three quarters he doesn’t have more than 917 yards or 6 touchdowns respectively. If the Eagles can control the clock in the first half, especially before halftime, it will amplify Mahomes’ efforts in the 4th quarter.
Xavier Worthy over 5.5 receptions up to 8 receptions.
Worthy has had at least five receptions in every game since the Chiefs’ bye. He’s an extension of their run game, which isn’t terribly explosive and will have a tough battle against the Eagles stout front. That leads to Worthy spreading the field laterally.
Eagles -2.5.
The Eagles are the best team in the NFL. The Chiefs are the toughest to kill, but the Eagles offensive and defensive fronts will enable them to win the line of scrimmage, which is how to slay the Chiefs. With Lane Johnson and Jordan Mailata, the Eagles will be able to quell Steve Spagnuolo’s pressures and make big plays, while getting enough pressure on Mahomes, who lacks the weapons to overcome a defense as balanced and physical as Philadelphia’s.
Jalen Hurts Super Bowl MVP.
Hurts will record at least two touchdowns and the Chiefs will slow Saquon Barkley enough for Hurts to take home the hardware.
Photo Credit: Kenya Allen/PressBox
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