One thing nearly a lifetime in the fun and games department has taught me is that hope is a wish, not a game plan. A solid plan may be cause for hope, but the reverse doesn’t work.
It was with those thoughts in mind that I wondered how Orioles general manager Mike Elias would negotiate the offseason that is now officially over. He knew, as most of us should have, that ace starter Corbin Burnes and slugging outfielder Anthony Santander would almost certainly be free-agent roster casualties (more on that later). Finding replacements, one way or another, would be a priority that most likely would require some creativity.
For openers, Elias has a legitimate reason to believe (hope) that Grayson Rodriguez is ready to step up to top-of-the-rotation status. A reasonable expectation, but not a plan. He also has hopes that Zach Eflin could continue to be a steady contributor in the middle of the rotation and that Dean Kremer might establish himself as a steady No. 2 or 3 starter. Again, not outrageous thoughts but not acceptable plans.
Looking at the starting rotation, my thoughts were that Elias had two options — find an ace to be No. 1 as he did last year by trading two prospects and a draft pick for Burnes, or stack the roster with legitimate candidates to fill the remaining spots in the rotation. Finding an ace who might fall through the cracks in free agency was a long shot and, unless I miss my guess, Elias is not going to make many trades like the one for Burnes, giving up two high-end prospects for the likelihood of a one-year rental. He’s not going to shred a still highly-ranked farm system for short-term gain.
The long-term contacts being given to starting pitchers, who are being asked to do less, have reached the ridiculous stage. Still fans were hoping (not a plan) for a flashy acquisition — somebody like Blake Snell, the electrifying left-hander who only goes past the sixth inning if he’s working on a no-hitter.
When I look at recent long-term deals for pitchers, the best one is the Yankees’ nine-year contract with Gerrit Cole. But that showed some signs of wear and tear in 2024 and still has another five years to go — and the Yankees still haven’t won a World Series since 2009.
I’m not suggesting that attacking the back end of the rotation was Elias’ primary mission, but as backup plans go it has some merit. Instead of gambling $25 million to $30 million for a potential No. 1 starter, he spent $28 million on Charlie Morton and Tomoyuki Sugano. Not enough to satisfy a fan base that was expecting more, but more than enough to provide depth that makes rookie Cade Povich and swingman Albert Suárez pieces of the puzzle rather than potential fixtures in the rotation. We won’t know until September if that strategy worked.
As of the deadline for this issue, there was still time for Elias to swing a trade, but I would be surprised if a high-end pitcher was involved. As for the logjam among infielders and outfielders, that’s another story. But I believe, as I think Elias does, that the most important task ahead for the Orioles is to find out what the ceiling is for players like Heston Kjerstad, Colton Cowser, Gunnar Henderson, Jackson Holliday, Coby Mayo, Jordan Westburg, et al.
That’s a huge collection of talent very highly regarded by most in the industry. Eventually some will leave via trade or free agency, because that’s how the landscape is shaped. But you don’t want to be trading those kinds of players until you at least have an idea of their potential ceiling/worth.
In the meantime, I’ll be in the minority on this, but I give Elias credit for having a reasonable plan in place. It may have been a backup plan, but that’s better than relying solely on “hope.”
* * *
For those still wondering why the Orioles weren’t able to retain Corbin Burnes as their No. 1 starter, here’s one clue: Textbook work on negotiating by Scott Boras, who is head and shoulders above those in his profession. And it should be noted — a clear example of his claim that the decision is always the player’s, not his.
As far back as April, before Burnes had won his second game as an Oriole, I was told by a scout who is well informed when it comes to “street talk” that the Mets already had Burnes on their priority list for 2025, ready to go to $210 million on a seven-year contract. Clearly the market was set very early (somebody else will have to explain why), making Boras’ job easier if such a thing is possible.
As soon as the bidding opened, the Mets, Blue Jays, Red Sox, Dodgers and Giants, along with the Orioles, got involved. Have you noticed the missing link here? Eventually Boras got the number to a level he was comfortable with — and then played his ace card. A resident of Arizona, Burnes let it be known that’s where he wanted to go. I don’t have all the information, but it seems fairly obvious that once he had the bar as high as it would go, Boras presented a “hometown discount” the Diamondbacks couldn’t refuse — even as they were trying to pare payroll by trading Jordan Montgomery.
So the team that none of the “insiders” had in the mix ended up with arguably the best starting pitcher on the market. Burnes gets to stay home, avoiding the need for a second residence during the regular season and spring training, a luxury probably worth a lot more to him than the “hometown discount.”
And everybody’s happy except those teams that set the bar and made Boras’ job easier. You would hope they’d get a clue. But, as we mentioned before, hope is not a plan.
* * *
Sometimes I’m fascinated by how gullible we are when it comes to marketing. This notion was driven home earlier in the month when I saw an Orioles press release announcing the debut of the team’s “Official Cap of MLB Batting Practice.”
A batting practice cap? Really? Oops, an “Official Batting Practice Cap?” You do realize of course that an “official” anything requires a licensing permit from MLB. Which means the “official” batting practice cap is made by a company other than the one that makes the “official” regular game caps.
I’m trying to figure out why one would want a batting practice cap, official or not, rather than a regular game cap. Oops again, dumb me — because your favorite player will be wearing both at every game you surely can’t have one without the other.
If I see a player wearing one of those flat-brimmed “Official Batting Practice Cap” that would send me over the ledge. Real players don’t wear flat-brimmed caps — official or unofficial!
* * *
One last fashion note: Nothing official, mind you, but the word is that the Orioles will have a version of the 1970s “All Orange” uniform in 2025.
Jim Henneman can be reached at JimH@pressboxonline.com
Photo Credit: Colin Murphy/PressBox