The Athletic recently released Keith Law’s preseason prospect package, which includes an overall top-100 prospect list, top-20 prospect lists for every team and a ranking of all 30 farm systems. Catcher Samuel Basallo, infielder Coby Mayo and outfielder Enrique Bradfield Jr. made Law’s top-100 prospect list. The Orioles rank No. 20 in Law’s farm system ranking.
Law joined Glenn Clark Radio Feb. 13 to chat about the Orioles’ system and whether the club should trade for a high-end starting pitcher before the season begins. The questions have been edited for clarity.
PressBox: Is it concerning that the Orioles’ farm system has retreated as much as it has? Or was it always going to be this way?
Keith Law: I think they could have sustained it a little bit longer. Or they could have done a better job converting the assets that they did have in the system, the strength that they had in position-player prospects into more major league pitching. … The trade for Corbin Burnes was part of the plan. You trade your position-player depth. In that case, it was just Joey Ortiz, but he’s an everyday player, for an ace. Corbin Burnes is an ace or very close to one.
To me, you can look at the Orioles’ system now and say they’re down because they’re not picking at the top anymore and they have traded and graduated quite a few prospects. The flip side is they don’t draft as well when they’re drafting at the end of the first round. They have a lot of either questionable picks or even just outright misses with some of their higher bonus picks. And they haven’t made enough trades to bolster the rotation because they don’t draft pitching. They really just do not draft pitching. It’s like some sort of anaphylactic allergy or something. They are just not doing it.
That’s fine if you’re going to turn around and trade to get it, but I look at that Orioles rotation and say, “I don’t know if that’s enough to hang with the Yankees.” The Red Sox are better at least … and the Rays are the Rays. They’re mosquitoes. They’re always going to be there annoying you if you’re competing in the AL East.
PB: Is Heston Kjerstad the next Orioles prospect who is traded after his value declines?
KL: I would expand that to say Kjerstad, Ryan Mountcastle and Ryan O’Hearn, who had a very good year last year — I was kind of surprised that they picked up his option, not that I don’t think he’s worth it or a good player, but he’s the last thing that they need. This is the whole problem. All three of those guys are sort of facing a decline in their trade value either because they sort of plateaued or because they’re approaching free agency and there’s not a lot of service time left.
Mountcastle to me might be the weirdest one. Why is he still here? He is basically just blocking Coby Mayo. He’s kind of blocking Heston Kjerstad to some extent. They have players who do the same thing and do it better, but there are certainly clubs out there that would look at Ryan Mountcastle and say, “Well, it’s better than what we have at first base.” I didn’t love what they gave up, but still, [the Pirates] traded three pitchers to get Spencer Horwitz. I think I’d rather have Ryan Mountcastle, all else being equal.
That’s the kind of trade where if you asked me in November I’d say, “Well, I think Mountcastle’s probably gone by the time pitchers and catchers report.” Well, here we are, and all three of those guys I mentioned are still in Baltimore. There’s not enough playing time for them and they still need let’s just say an above-average starter, somebody who can pitch in the top three spots in a contending rotation. They need to go get a guy like that. If they’ve even tried, it certainly hasn’t made its way into the press. I haven’t seen any real reports of them being heavy on any of the possible trade candidates or any of the free agents who would’ve fit that role.
PB: Could the Orioles still pull off a trade with the Padres or Mariners involving Dylan Cease, Michael King or Luis Castillo?
KL: Both of those teams are still willing to trade, to put it that way. You have to line up on the effective price in players. I don’t do a lot of trade rumor stuff. I talk to people as part of the prospect work. The teams that are selling pitching feel like they’re not getting anywhere close to reasonable offers in return. That kind of makes sense in the case of the Orioles and I would say this to be true certainly from the Astros, who have followed a similar philosophy. A lot of these teams are scared of pitching. Pitching’s worth less because they all get hurt and we don’t pitch them as much. Therefore we’re willing to pay less in terms of prospects or young big leaguers going back in the other direction.
Now, I don’t know exactly what offers have gone back and forth there. My inference is that it hasn’t gone very far with the Orioles on any of those guys that you’re talking about. Yet, of course they would line up. They line up really well with the Mariners, like hilariously so. … This team, they’ve made the playoffs the last two years. They are not far from being the best team on paper in the division, which would probably make them the best team on paper in the American League. This is a very good core that Mike Elias and company have built. This is not meant to say they’re doing a bad job or that the team isn’t good. I’m saying the team is really good. Make them great.
PB: Would you make Coby Mayo available in such discussions?
KL: I would do it, because of where they are. I like Coby Mayo a ton. He’s in my top 20 overall, and some of that is proximity. He could step into a major league role for somebody right now. There’s a lot of value in a player being able to do that and still have the kind of upside that Mayo does. There’s some risk with Mayo. We’re not exactly sure where he’s going to end up playing. His swing can get a bit long. I don’t know that he’s going to step in and be productive Day 1 — and I could see the Orioles saying we need to win, we can’t give Coby Mayo 500 at-bats this year because we’re trying to win.
That is a reasonable position to take, but you can’t do that and then at the same time, “Well, we can’t trade him.” You can’t clutch your pearls at the suggestion if you’re trading him to get a difference-maker — Cease, King, Castillo, I would call them difference-makers. They would be in the top three spots in the Orioles’ rotation. They would be able to start a playoff game for the Orioles. To me, if that’s the ask, I’d say, “That’s fine. We’ll headline this with Mayo, but it’s not a four-player deal. This isn’t the Garrett Crochet package.”
We’ll do [Mayo] and one or two guys much further down in the system. I don’t mean necessarily by level, but guys who are not necessarily in the Orioles’ top 10, for example. You do something like that. To say, “We’re giving you a major-league-ready top-20 overall prospect,” that’s close to enough. Pad it with some further-away guys, but … Sammy Basallo would be a ridiculous ask.
PB: Does it make sense to trade Mayo for one year of Cease?
KL: You’ve got to win. When you get the rare opportunity that the Orioles have, particularly playing in this hyper-competitive division, you need to seize the opportunity to win, no pun intended. He is a difference-maker. Of the guys you mentioned, I’d say I want Cease or King before Castillo. Castillo is starting a decline. I don’t know if I want to be invested in Castillo for [the remainder of his contract].
With Cease, you could actually argue, “Well, pitching’s terrifying, so let’s just take the guy for a year and then we’ll go out the next year and pick up the next guy and the next guy.” The nice thing about Corbin Burnes is you didn’t invest in him long term. If you’re so afraid of doing a long-term deal with a pitcher — which I understand, they all break — well, do lots of short-term deals. Go trade for a guy who’s got one or two years left and then your goal is, “Hey, we’ve just got to keep you healthy until you leave in free agency and we’ll take the draft pick and go get the next guy.” I think you’ve got a pretty good argument you could do that with Cease.
For more from Law, listen to the full interview here:
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